Analysis
4/6/23
4 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: What to Expect From Jaguars WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk went from grossly overpaid to one of the NFL's top wide receivers during the 2022 season, finishing with a career-high 1,108 receiving yards. He quickly became an indispensable part of Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson's offensive game plan, serving as a reliable safety blanket for second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Under Pederson's guidance, Kirk's full potential was unleashed, as he displayed an impressive route tree and versatility. Let's dive into the details of Kirk's incredible breakout year and take an early look at what we can expect from him in 2023.
All of the data used in this article is from Sports Info Solutions.
Detailing Kirk's Improvement
Yearly StatisticsÂ
| Season | Team | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | YDS/TGT | YDS/REC |
| 2018 | Arizona | 68 | 43 | 590 | 3 | 8.68 | 13.72 |
| 2019 | Arizona | 106 | 68 | 709 | 3 | 6.69 | 10.43 |
| 2020 | Arizona | 77 | 48 | 621 | 6 | 8.06 | 12.94 |
| 2021 | Arizona | 102 | 77 | 982 | 5 | 9.63 | 12.75 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville | 133 | 84 | 1108 | 8 | 8.29 | 13.12 |
Pederson's first order of business with Kirk was getting the wide receiver more work and consistent volume. In Kirk’s first season with the Jaguars, he was targeted six or more times in 73.7 percent of his games. In his four seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, that number was 28.1 percent. This led to Kirk getting more than 130 targets for the first time in his career and having his best season as a pro.
Kirk's Advanced Totals
| Season | Team | Routes Run | % Yards After Catch | aDOT | Yards per Route Run | Targets per Route Run |
| 2018 | Arizona | 324 | 39.15 | 9.29 | 1.82 | 20.99% |
| 2019 | Arizona | 451 | 42.31 | 9.57 | 1.57 | 23.50% |
| 2020 | Arizona | 458 | 29.95 | 11.88 | 1.36 | 16.81% |
| 2021 | Arizona | 496 | 23.73 | 11.39 | 1.98 | 20.56% |
| 2022 | Jacksonville | 570 | 35.48 | 9.27 | 1.94 | 23.33% |
Kirk's role with the Jaguars was working the underneath and intermediate portion of the field, leading to his lower average depth of target (aDOT), but it allowed him to be frequently targeted. Kirk was pushed into a field-stretching role with the Cardinals when they traded for DeAndre Hopkins, which led to Kirk being a secondary option.
With the Jaguars, Kirk was the No. 1 player and was complemented by Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Marvin Jones.
Kirk's Alignment
| Season | Team | Routes Run | Slot | Wide |
| 2018 | Arizona | 324 | 41.98% | 55.56% |
| 2019 | Arizona | 451 | 51.00% | 47.45% |
| 2020 | Arizona | 458 | 27.73% | 71.40% |
| 2021 | Arizona | 496 | 83.47% | 16.33% |
| 2022 | Jacksonville | 570 | 85.79% | 11.75% |
The Cardinals' biggest mistake with Kirk was not committing him to a specific role. He was utilized differently for three straight seasons, which does not help a young player’s development. Pederson recognized the slot was where Kirk would thrive and made him the primary-slot option without much of a rotation.
Route Tree Changes
To understand Kirk's breakout year better, we'll reference his route tree data from 2021 and 2022. One statistic that immediately stood out was the significant increase in the percentage of targets on out routes in 2022 compared to the previous year. He was targeted on 27.1 percent of his routes and averaged 2.48 yards per route run. These are elite numbers on the out route, which was a key route for Kirk last year. It's also worth noting the Jaguars opted to utilize Kirk primarily in the short-to-intermediate portion of the field, consistent with his role in Arizona.Â
Overall, it's clear Pederson recognized Kirk's potential and sought to capitalize on it by featuring him more prominently on higher-percentage throws. This approach proved successful, as Kirk's performance demonstrated greater consistency in Jacksonville than he experienced with Arizona.
Kirk's 2023 Outlook
While there may be concerns about the addition of Calvin Ridley to the wide receiver room, Kirk's role should complement Ridley's strengths. In Ridley's most successful season with the Atlanta Falcons, he excelled on seven and nine routes, which are not the types of routes Kirk is expected to run. Therefore, Kirk's production should not be limited by Ridley's presence. Still, there may be concerns about the volume of targets Kirk sees, which could potentially impact his 2023 outlook.Â
The Ridley-Kirk duo has the potential to be similar to that of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown with the Detroit Lions, but Ridley is the more established player and is likely to be the main target. The other difference is the Jaguars have other talented receiving options, including Engram and Jones, which could further impact Kirk's production.Â
Though Kirk may not have the highest fantasy ceiling, he is a reliable option, helping sustain drives and providing a consistent floor. Given his expected output, his best ball ADP as the WR26 seems reasonable.
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