Fantasy Football 2023 Guide To WR, TE Matchups: Actionable Tips
Fantasy 6/16/23
In a collaborative effort throughout June, Jordan Vanek and Mark Garvia are joining forces to curate a comprehensive set of rankings for the upcoming year's secondaries. They intend to provide valuable insights into best ball strategies, early-season targeting and fantasy football preparations.
In case you missed it, Part 1 of this series covered how they tier-ranked every team's secondary, and Part 2 covered each team's strength of schedule based on those tiers.
Schedule Split Up By Division
Total Points, Averages
*Color Scale is Green (Easy) to Red (Hard)*
*Week 18 is not shown because it is not a part of the championship*
Noteworthy Takeaways
Garcia's Takeaways
Rams' Defense, Cooper Kupp
The Los Angeles Rams' defense took a hit in the offseason, leaving them with one of the weakest units in the league. Their secondary, mostly made up of late-round picks, sets the stage for high-scoring games in 2023. Cooper Kupp, with limited receiving options, enters the new year in the best fantasy situation.
Lower Expectations for Patriots' Pass Catchers
Four AFC East secondaries rank in the top 10. While it’s difficult to knock the top wide receivers from that division from a season-long perspective (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson), expectations should be lower for New England Patriots wide receivers and pass-catchers. All four teams in the AFC East play outdoors, resulting in a tough passing schedule, placing them among the top five in difficulty for the upcoming season.
Invest in 49ers' Offense?
The San Francisco 49ers have a strong secondary and several talented pass-catchers. It's unlikely Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will meet their ADPs in best ball leagues if they stay healthy. Not investing heavily in their offense means missing out on the individual upside. Also, the 49ers have an easy secondary strength of schedule for the playoff weeks (15-17).
Don't Sleep on Nico Collins
The Houston Texans have the easiest secondary strength of schedule for the playoff weeks. Nico Collins outperformed Brandin Cooks when both were healthy last season. With Cooks gone and rookie QB C.J. Stroud having time to build rapport, Collins offers high late-season upside at a discounted WR63 valuation.
Saints' Home-Field Advantage
The New Orleans Saints have the highest number of dome games (14 out of 17) in 2023, coupled with an easy secondary-adjusted strength of schedule. Their playoff schedule is also favorable. With the addition of QB Derek Carr, there is notable fantasy upside for Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed.
Offenses With Upside
Four teams with new starting quarterbacks (Saints, Colts, Packers, Texans) and two teams with low pass rates (Bears, Falcons) have favorable secondary-adjusted schedules. Only four pass-catchers from these teams are being drafted in the top four rounds of best ball drafts. These offenses offer substantial upside at a cost-effective price.
Lions, Bengals Benefit From Schedule
The Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals have favorable secondary-adjusted strength of schedules. The Bengals have the easiest playoff week schedule. These teams are promising pass offenses based on our rankings.
Vanek's Takeaways
Seahawks, Bengals Offer Upside
The Seattle Seahawks and Bengals offer a potent combination for optimal output weeks. They game stack in Week 6, share bye weeks against the Cardinals, and when Seattle faces tough opponents, the Bengals enjoy a favorable schedule.
Benefits of Playing Divisional Games
In the best ball playoffs, the NFC East features just one divisional matchup: the New York Giants vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, the Tennessee Titans, Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders and Minnesota Vikings have the advantage of facing two divisional opponents during playoff weeks. Most NFL teams don’t face a divisional opponent or only one team during these weeks.
Vikings End Season With Easy Matchups
Getting hot at the right time is crucial to end the football season. The Vikings have a favorable end to the season with four out of five matchups against easy opponents. These games occur in domed stadiums, creating ideal conditions for the Vikings' offense.
Fade Terry McLaurin
Despite being a highly talented player, Terry McLaurin is a fade at his draft position due to schedule and situation. Players like Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Mike Williams and Christian Watson are more appealing in the same draft range. These alternatives offer a combination of favorable circumstances and promising talent, making them more attractive.
Consider Tyquan Thornton
The Patriots are expected to lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson, particularly in the early part of the season. However, they face a challenging start with six out of their first eight games against teams boasting top secondaries.
Given the Patriots' possibly signing DeAndre Hopkins, investing in JuJu Smith-Schuster at his draft position becomes difficult. Instead, late-round pick Tyquan Thornton is more appealing as a potential fantasy gem who could play a Will Fuller role for this Bill O’Brien offense.
Bet on Falcons' Pass Catchers
With the Atlanta Falcons boasting one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, it presents a favorable environment for Desmond Ridder. Additionally, the presence of top-10 draft picks at running back, wide receiver and tight end provides an array of threats in the red zone. That paves the way for the Falcons to emulate what Arthur Smith built with the Titans in 2020.
Lions' Pass Catchers Set Up for Strong End of Season
The Lions enjoy a favorable schedule from Weeks 8 to 17, with only one game played outdoors (Chicago). Despite Jameson Williams serving a suspension, he is poised to deliver several impressive performances during this stretch. Moreover, most of these weeks feature favorable matchups, increasing the likelihood of Lions stacks making a significant impact to end the year.
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