Analysis
8/10/23
4 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: Gaining Leverage in Best Ball Mania
In Underdog’s Best Ball Mania tournament (BBMIV), drafters must create teams capable of separating from the other 677,375 entries. Leverage, or looking for under-executed strategies and edges relative to their optimal rates, can help drafters build successful teams.
As more than 60 percent of BBMIV has already been filled, many players who were predominantly undrafted have the potential to serve as leverage on teams that have already made their selections. Below are three low-drafted, late-round tight ends who are cemented as starters on their respective teams.
Why Late-Round Picks Produce Leverage
Early in the offseason, depth charts are uncertain. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals’ backfields only had clear backups emerge during the preseason.
While Samaje Perine and Isiah Pacheco initially received little attention from early drafters, they became frequently drafted players when evidence indicated their roles as likely backups. Pacheco meaningfully outproduced his late-round ADP and achieved this on a limited number of teams due to his infrequent selection in the first two-thirds of drafts.
Targeting frequently undrafted players should be a secondary goal; drafters must prioritize impactful, high-scoring players. Ideally, a late-round draft pick at this stage can accomplish both goals.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Teams draft Hunter Henry in less than one in every 10 BBMIV drafts, despite his expected role as the New England Patriots' starting tight end. Reportedly, Henry has exclusively lined up with the starting offense in training camp. With a secure role, Henry is one of the most stable late-round options.
With new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and, more importantly, the removal of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as offensive designers, the Patriots project as a borderline league-average offense. Two offseasons ago, Henry signed a lucrative contract and is one year removed from a nine-touchdown season. He is the best last-round pick on the board considering his leverage bonus and projection relative to players around him.
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Generally, fading rookie tight ends has been a successful strategy. However, the Green Bay Packers have one of the youngest pass-catching groups of the past decade. Luke Musgrave’s competition for routes is fellow rookie Tucker Kraft. While the Packers drafted Kraft in the middle of the third round, they selected Musgrave more than 30 picks earlier in the middle of the second round.
Throughout training camp, Musgrave has drawn rave reviews. As an elite athlete on an open depth chart, Musgrave has the potential to become a featured weapon early in the season with a significant route share. Teams select Musgrave in fewer than one of every five drafts so far.
This suggests that even if he is chosen in every draft until the contest is filled, his ownership will still be, at most, half that of players selected in every draft. Prioritize Musgrave in any Packers' stacks or ideally with other correlations, though he functions as an uncorrelated last-round pick.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
When the Dallas Cowboys selected Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker at the end of the second round, it created an uncertain position group. However, Schoonmaker has only recently returned to practice. Camp reports suggest Jake Ferguson is the overwhelming favorite to claim the Cowboys’ starting tight end spot. Ferguson flashed as a rookie behind Dalton Schultz, and much of the rhetoric around the Cowboys’ desire to pass the ball less lacks evidence.
The Cowboys’ offseason moves (trading for Brandin Cooks and releasing Ezekiel Elliott) signal an intention to pass the ball early and often. Importantly, Ferguson's selection rate has been less than one in every three drafts. His ownership is likely to be half that of players chosen in every draft.
Teams with other pieces of the Cowboys' offense, ideally including Dak Prescott, should heavily prioritize Ferguson. Without correlation, drafters should rarely consider Ferguson.
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