Analysis
7/16/23
5 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: Deeper Look at DeAndre Hopkins' Signing
DeAndre Hopkins reached a two-year agreement Sunday with the Tennessee Titans for $26 million, though he can make up to $32 million with incentives.
This article will cover his past two seasons of production, his general average draft position (ADP) in 2023 fantasy drafts and his 2023 fantasy expectations. Those fantasy expectations will include general target projections for Hopkins and Treylon Burks to help readers understand why the Titans aren’t a guaranteed death sentence for receiving fantasy production.
All fantasy stats throughout will be using half-PPR scoring.
Hopkins' Fantasy Overview
2021-2022 Production
After averaging 162 targets, 108 receptions, 1,381 yards and nine touchdowns per season from 2017-2018, Hopkins failed to crack 750 yards receiving in 2021 and 2022.
The 2021 season saw Hopkins suffer through injuries and ineffectiveness. He averaged just 4.2 receptions and 57 yards per game, but he remained fantasy relevant by scoring eight touchdowns in only 10 games. The underlying peripherals hinted at age-related decline, as his target share dropped to 20 percent after hovering around 25-30 percent the previous half-decade.
In 2022, Hopkins missed the first six games because of a PED suspension but appeared to have a career resurgence. His target share bounced back to 29 percent, and despite suffering from worse quarterback play for much of 2022, his yards per route run was higher than in 2021.
While Hopkins is no longer a truly elite wide receiver, he’s still one of the best. For real football, he’d probably fall somewhere from WR12-WR15.
Hopkins’ 2023 ADP
Underdog Fantasy has Hopkins as the WR25, going off the board toward the end of Round 4. FantasyPros lists Hopkins’ ADP as WR20 for redraft leagues, with him leaving the board in the middle of Round 4. Each of these platforms was for half-PPR scoring formats.
The Titans' run-first offense centered around running back Derrick Henry makes it unlikely for Hopkins' ADP to rise. A.J. Brown averaged 11.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game for the Titans in 2021. He is the only receiving option to average more than 6.5 points per game during the past two seasons.
His ADP should settle into the middle of Round 5 with this landing spot, but I’m not quite as bearish on the situation as many others.
Hopkins’ 2023 Fantasy Expectations
Tennessee's recent teams aren’t a good measurement of how we should expect the passing offense to operate. Of course, a team won’t throw much, or effectively, when the receiving core is hollowed out. Instead, we should turn to the 2020 Titans, when Brown and Corey Davis were in the fold.
Because Brown and Davis played in only 14 games apiece that season, their aggregate numbers aren’t particularly impressive. However, when looking at per-game stats, Brown was the WR12 in yards per game (77), and Davis was the WR16 in yards per game (70). Brown was the WR5 with 15.2 half-PPR points per game, and Davis was WR28 with 11.4 points per game among receivers with at least 10 games played in 2020.
It would be surprising if Hopkins and Burks had similar fantasy finishes to Brown and Davis from that 2020 season, as the Titans’ offensive line has crumbled in recent years. Plus, the now 29-year-old Henry has taken 606 carries since the end of the 2020 regular season, including the 2020 and 2021 playoffs.
However, quarterback Ryan Tannehill averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt in 2022, the same efficiency he had during that 2020 season (7.9 yards per attempt), despite having far worse receiving options and a porous offensive line.
The 2020 Titans attempted just 485 passes during those 16 games with only the Patriots and Ravens falling below that number. The Titans attempted the seventh-fewest passes in 2021 and the third-fewest in 2022.
The Titans probably didn’t sign Hopkins to throw fewer than 27 passes per game as they did in 2022. Their 2020 passing volume of just more than 30 attempts per game is much more likely, especially since they have one of the NFL’s worst defensive secondaries and will struggle to grind out wins with Henry and the run game.
If Hopkins gets a 29 percent target share like last season on 30 attempts per game, that translates to 8.7 targets per game, which would tie with Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen for the 12th most per game from 2022. While it’s tough to see Hopkins being an elite fantasy asset like Brown was in 2020 — Hopkins doesn’t have the big-play ability of Brown — it’s still reasonable to expect difference-making WR2-type production for him.
If Burks can have a low 20 percent target share in 2023 — a fairly reasonable expectation for the clear No. 2 pass-game option — then he’d have a similar amount of targets per game as 2022 San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk sneakily cleared 1,000 yards and 11 half-PPR fantasy points per game.
Cliff Notes
Hopkins does not have an elite fantasy WR1 ceiling with Tennessee, but he’s still in the WR2 conversation and should probably remain a late Round 4 fantasy pick, though he’ll almost certainly be pushed into Round 5.
Burks’ ADP should drop from the end of Round 6 into Round 7 or 8. He’s a good pick in that range.
Volume drafters should attempt to remain roughly even with the field on the 31-year-old Hopkins while pushing slightly past the field on Burks.
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