Analysis
10/16/22
6 min read
Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS Sunday Night Showdown
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 0-2 in starts against the Dallas Cowboys, losing by more than 20 points both times. Hurts turned the ball over multiple times in those two starts. But so far this season, he's only turned the ball over twice. Each of those previous matchups was in Dallas, but Sunday's game is in Philadelphia, which is a much different environment to play in.
The Cowboys have won four straight games with Cooper Rush as the starter, thanks to their defense and Rush's ability to limit turnovers. Dallas has yet to give up more than 20 points this season. The Cowboys' pass rush is about to play the best offensive line they have faced all year, and the game's deciding factor will likely be who wins the trenches.
Vegas Line: Eagles -6.5
Over Under: 42.5
Notable Injuries:
Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott (Questionable), WR CeeDee Lamb (Questionable), OT Jason Peters (Questionable)
Eagles: Nobody of note.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Cowboys Offense vs. Eagles Defense
- Rush has averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt, and has a 3.4% passing touchdown rate.
- Philadelphia's defense has only allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt this year, and I don't anticipate Rush taking advantage of it.
- The Eagles primarily play zone coverage, and they play the most cover four in the NFL.
- Rush has seen cover four on 15 attempts and averaged 10.5 yards per attempt, with two passing touchdowns.
- Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has a 49% target share with Rush at quarterback and against zone coverage.
- Against man coverage, Noah Brown has been the Cowboys' most productive wide receiver.
- The Eagles have blitzed at a 23% rate this season, and Rush has averaged more than eight yards per attempt against it.
- Lamb has a 45% target share against the blitz this season, while Brown is at 28%.
- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup has run more than 80% of the routes in both weeks, being active.
- Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz has run 32% of the possible routes, but I don't expect a repeat performance from last season against the Eagles. Schultz scored four touchdowns in two games against the Eagles last season.
- The Eagles' rush defense is their weak point this year, as they give up five yards per carry.
- Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will see plenty of touches in a close game.
- Elliott has averaged 3.8 yards per carry this year, while Pollard is averaging 5.6.
- Elliott has almost double the rushing attempts of Pollard.
- Pollard runs fewer routes than Elliott, but when he runs a route, he has a 27% target per route run. Elliott is at an 11% target per route run.
Eagles Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
- Hurts averages 8.6 yards per attempt, 7.0 air yards per attempt and a 2.5% touchdown pass rate this year.
- Outside of two games, Hurts' yards per attempt has underwhelmed, including last weekend when he averaged 3.8 yards per attempt.
- Against the blitz, Hurts has averaged 6.1 yards per attempt this season and has been sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks.
- The Cowboys have played zone coverage at a 79% rate this season and have blitzed on 22% of plays. Their secondary has only given up 5.9 yards per attempt this season.
- I expect Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to blitz Hurts and utilize a spy to keep him contained when he scrambles.
- In zone coverage and against the blitz, the Eagles have three players with more than 20% target share this season: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
- In man coverage, Brown has a 40% target share.
- WR Quez Watkins has an average depth of target at 16.7. The Cowboys gave up an explosive play to Rams WR Tutu Atwell last week, so I expect Watkins – a similar player – to get at least one downfield target.
- The Cowboys' run defense has given up 4.7 yards per carry.
- Miles Sanders is the Eagles' primary back this season and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
- Sanders has run plenty of routes this season but has not been a primary target for Hurts.
- The problem with Sanders is his red zone carries get limited by Hurts, who has 24 carries to Sanders' 16 inside the red zone.
- Hurts has 11 carries inside the 10-yard line.
Overall Thoughts
Both teams have elite-level defenses, and I expect them to be on full display. Last week's 20-17 win against the Arizona Cardinals was the first close game the Eagles played. On Philadelphia's game-winning drive, they ran the ball 13 times in 17 plays. Sunday's game against Dallas has a low Vegas total, and as much pass-catching talent as these teams have, I still expect each team to emphasize the running game.
The Eagles will utilize their offensive line to wear down Dallas' pass rush, limiting its ability to get after Hurts. Trevon Diggs has been a lockdown corner for Dallas. However, when he's been beaten, it has been by secondary receivers while he's playing off coverage. When you run the ball effectively, it opens the door for deep shots off-play action. I recommend a 4-2 build surrounding the Eagles in this game.
Multiplier Pool
- Jalen Hurts
- Miles Sanders
- DeVonta Smith
FLEX Pool
- A.J. Brown
- CeeDee Lamb
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Tony Pollard
- Michael Gallup
- Noah Brown
- Quez Watkins
- Eagles D/ST
- Jake Elliott
- Brett Maher
- Cowboys D/ST
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