Analysis
11/12/22
8 min read
Week 10 Underdog Fantasy NFL Main Slate High/Low Picks
Regression hit hard on Thursday night. After going perfect in Week 9 on Thursday night, we went 0/3 in a very frustrating game. That brings our total for the season to 56-49-2.
Michael Pittman Jr. MORE than 4.5 Receptions
If you've read this article for the past few weeks, you know I always target the Vegas secondary. But this week is putting that to the test with the Raiders playing the Colts, who are now coached by first-time head coach Jeff Saturday. This Colts team is also coming off a horrific performance last week where they were thoroughly embarrassed by the Patriots.
Sam Ehlinger hasn't looked great after replacing Matt Ryan, but he at least has been targeting Pittman a lot. Pittman has a 29.4% target share in the last two games with Ehlinger, and I imagine this new coaching staff will continue to ride with their best receiver and feed him plenty of targets. The Raiders give up the sixth most receptions per game, so I have confidence in this play, but this new coaching staff scares me. I rate it a 3/5 for confidence and would play it at 5.0 receptions, but not any higher.
Raheem Mostert MORE than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
The Dolphins have had 10 rushes within 10 yards of the endzone this season. Mostert has had half of those rushes, including the only rushing attempt within 10 yards last week that he converted into a touchdown. The Cleveland Browns have given up the second most rushing touchdowns this season per game, only behind Chicago, and the Browns have given up two or more rushing touchdowns in six-of-eight games this season.
This would have been a 5/5 confidence play if Jeff Wilson wasn't traded to the Dolphins at the trade deadline. In his first game with the Dolphins last week, Wilson tied Mostert with nine rushes. It seems like the Dolphins decided to run with the hot hand last week, as Mostert couldn't do much against the Bears' rush defense but Wilson could find plenty of space. I still believe Mostert will be the goal-line back and that the Dolphins will get plenty of scoring opportunities. I give this pick a 3/5 confidence rating and would not play it if it goes up to 1.0.
Justin Fields MORE than 59.5 Rushing Yards
I feel sorry for whoever had to make this line after Fields's record-breaking day last week. Fields has been over this total during the previous four weeks as the Bears have finally figured out how to use him best.
I expect his dominance on the ground to continue as he goes against a terrible Detroit defense that has not played many running quarterbacks this season. Their only game against a running quarterback was Week 1 when Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had 90 rushing yards against them. I expect Fields to continue to see success on the ground, but this line is already reasonably high, so I don't feel extremely confident. I give it a 4/5 confidence rating and would not play it any higher.
Travis Etienne MORE than 105.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Is there a running back hotter than Etienne right now? He has five straight weeks of more than 100 rushing and receiving yards. He also has more than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. Since James Robinson was traded, Etienne has handled 88% of the running back rushes and has run more than twice as many routes as JaMycal Hasty. This is Etienne's backfield, so there is no reason to worry about anyone stealing a significant amount of touches from him.
The Chiefs' rush defense looks scarier on paper than it actually is. They allow the fifth-fewest rush yards per game. If you look at running back rushing yards, they allow the 11th-fewest at 84.5 rushing yards per game, which is anchored by their Week 4 matchup with the Buccaneers, where the Bucs' running backs only rushed for three yards. If you remove that, they allow 97 rushing yards per game to running backs, which is the 12th most in the league.
Even if the Chiefs can shut down the running game, they give up the 2nd most receiving yards per game to running backs and the most receptions per game to running backs. By playing both rushing and receiving yards, this play becomes much safer. I rate this pick as a 4/5 and would play it up to 109.5 yards.
Greg Dulcich MORE than 42.5 Receiving Yards
Since his first NFL start in Week 6, Dulcich leads all tight ends in air yards per target. The Broncos are pushing the ball downfield with him, and he is averaging 60.7 receiving yards per game. He also has solidified himself at the starting tight end during the past few weeks. He ran 31 routes last week. No other tight end for the Broncos had more than two. He also was the only Broncos tight end to have a target. His 31 routes were also only two less than Jeudy and Sutton.
This is also a prime matchup for the rookie tight end, as the Titans give up the 3rd-most receiving yards and 4th-most receptions to tight ends per game this season. That stat is skewed by the Colts' 180 receiving yards to their tight ends in Week 4 and Kelce's 106 yards last week, but Dulcich only needs 43 for this pick to hit. I think Dulcich has a serious chance to be a top-three tight end this week based on his usage in the Broncos' offense and this matchup, so I give this pick a 5/5 confidence rating and would play it up to 49.5 receiving yards.
Amari Cooper MORE than 63.5 Receiving Yards
Cooper has been the go-to guy for QB Jacoby Brissett against man coverage. He has a 35.6% target share in man coverage, compared to 20.3% against zone coverage. The Browns are playing the Miami Dolphins this week, who run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. They also give up 115.4 receiving yards per game in man coverage, the most in the NFL. Cooper is already averaging 69.1 receiving yards per game, and this seems like a great matchup for him, so I am surprised this yardage for this entry is so low. I give this pick a 5/5 confidence and would play it up to 73.5 receiving yards.
Dak Prescott LESS than 31.5 Pass Attempts
As I scrolled through Underdog to write this article, this is the one-player entry that made me do a double-take. Only three times this season has a quarterback had more than 31.5 pass attempts against the Packers this season: Minnesota in Week 1, Tampa in Week 3 and Washington in Week 7. Tampa leads the league in pass attempts per game, Minnesota ranks sixth, and Washington ranks 11th. The Cowboys have the eighth fewest pass attempts per game this season at 29.6
Prescott has gone under this prop in both games he has played the entire game this season. In Week 1, he most likely would have gone over if he had not gotten injured, but the Cowboys were also in a negative game script the entire game. The game is at Lambeau Field, and it is expected to be below freezing at kickoff and to get colder as the game goes on. Games below freezing historically have been more run-heavy.
I expect the Cowboys already to have a run-heavy game plan, as the Packers give up the seventh most rushing yards per game. They've given up more than 100 rushing yards in all but one game so far this season. It should be the Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard show in Green Bay Sunday night, so I am highly confident in this play. I give it a 5/5 ranking, and it is my most confident play of the week. I would play it down to 29.5 pass attempts.
Recommended Pick 'em Entry of the Week:
I have three picks with 5/5 confidence ratings this week, so I like rolling out another pick-three contest with Dulcich MORE than 42.5 receiving yards, Cooper MORE than 63.5 receiving yards, and Prescott LESS than 31.5 pass attempts. We were an argument between Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins away from hitting our recommended entry last week so let's hope for no arguments between receivers and their quarterbacks this week so we can hit this 6x entry this weekend!
WATCH MORE: Three first-half bets to take for Week 10.
