Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolby provide 11 Super Bowl player props to take ahead of next Sunday’s Eagles-Chiefs matchup. For each line, they provide their detailed reasoning behind betting on the specific prop.
The implied probabilities are included along with the odds to make the mathematical intuition easier. If a prop has odds of -110, this implies it should hit 52.4% of the time. So, if we take a -110 prop, we expect it to hit more often than 52.4 percent.
Team to Score Longest Touchdown: Eagles – Larky
Odds: -135 (57.5%) on Caesar’s
- When looking at TD length from the 2022 regular season and playoffs in the table below, it immediately becomes clear that the Eagles should be extremely heavy favorites for this line.
|Team||Over 40 Yards||30-40 Yards||20-29 Yards|
- This prop can be found roughly 50 spots down in the Novelty props tab of the Caesar’s Sportsbook mobile app.
Jalen Hurts Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards – Wolby
Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings
- Last week, I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards
- Burrow had rushes of 11 and 14 yards against the Chiefs
- Quarterbacks rush against Kansas City at the third-highest rate this year, and they’re fairly efficient in doing so
- The Chiefs allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to QBs, the second-most in the NFL
- Hurts’ rush attempts line is 10.5, and he’s averaging 10 non-kneel-downs per game
- Hurts is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards and had 11 in the regular season
- But, including the playoffs and looking at a per-game basis (he missed time), he’s averaging just less than one per game but is fourth on a per-game basis
- Hurts had a run of 14 yards last week against the 49ers, the second-best rush DVOA team in the NFL (the Chiefs are 15th), which came in the third quarter when up by two TDs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire First Player to 10 Rushing Yards – Larky
Odds: +3300 (2.9%) on FanDuel
- This one’s hard to quantify precisely, but there’s definitely at least a one in 10 (probably one closer to one in four) chance that Edwards-Helaire, the former first round pick and early season primary ball carrier, is the Chiefs’ starting RB this Sunday.
- If the Chiefs get the ball first, their starting RB has a great chance to hit 10 rushing yards first.
Noah Gray OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards – Reynolds
Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings
- Gray has been over this number in 10 games this season.
- The Chiefs already play a high amount of two tight end sets.
- With the Chiefs WR injuries, it makes logical sense that they’ll continue this trend to better mitigate the Eagles’ pass rush.
- Gray can top this number on one catch.
Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Completions – Larky
Odds: +102 (49.5%) on FanDuel
- Jalen Hurts was over this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup
- Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year
- That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9
- In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was over against Kansas City
- The only QBs under this number were:
- Derek Carr for Las Vegas in Week 5
- Willis for Tennessee in Week 9
- Bryce Perkins for the Rams in Week 12
- Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel for Houston in Week 15
Team to First Record a Sack: Chiefs – Wolby
Odds: -115 (53.5%) on FanDuel
- In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles have allowed:
- Eight sacks in the first quarter
- 21 sacks in the first half
- In Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs have allowed:
- Three sacks in the first quarter
- 13 sacks in the first half
- The Eagles are allowing three times the first quarter sack frequency.
- While the Eagles are better at getting sacks than the Chiefs, Kansas City is more frequently sacking QBs early in games.
- Not to mention, the Eagles had an easier schedule to help bolster their sack number total this season.
Jerick McKinnon Under 20.5 Yards Rushing – Larky
Odds: -110 (52.4%) on PointsBet
- Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games
- McKinnon has seven or fewer yards rushing in four of his past five games
- McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville
- McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games
- The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl
McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards – Larky
Odds: -140 (58.3%) on FanDuel
- Only seven of his 87 carries this year were over this number
- That’s just one in 12.4 carries over this number for McKinnon
- Only one of his past five games was more than five carries
- Eleven carries is the most he’s had in any game this season
- He’s averaged 1.8 yards per carry during his past five games
- Edwards-Helaire should be activated ahead of this game, stealing carries from McKinnon
- The Eagles’ run defense is roughly league-average during the past two months
Player to First Record a Reception: A.J. Brown – Wolby
Odds: +130 (43.5%) on DraftKings
- DraftKings is pitting A.J. Brown (+130) against Travis Kelce (-165, 62.3%).
- This is basically a “which team wins the coin flip” and if it’s the Eagles, you’re getting that at plus odds.
- Travis Kelce has had a reception on 11 of 19 first drives.
- Brown has had a reception on 12 of 19 first drives, and on 11 of 17 Jalen Hurts starting QB drives.
- Whichever team wins the coin flip is likely winning this bet, but this is a juicier, better value way to bet on the Eagles to get the ball first.
- This prop can be found by clicking on the “Super Bowl Specials” tab (don’t click into the game first), then scrolling to “Rec Props”
Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 Yards Rushing – Larky
Odds: -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM
- Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl
- Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
- Mahomes was under this number in nine of 19 games this year.
- Mahomes averaged 21 yards rushing per game during the regular season when fully healthy
- This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue
- In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest
Shortest TD Yardage in Game OVER 1.5 Yards – Larky
Odds: +150 (40%) on Caesar’s Sportsbook
- The Chiefs and Eagles each played 19 games (regular season + postseason), and each had six games with a 1-yard TD score.
- Using 100,000 simulations in R, where one of the 19 games is randomly chosen for each of Kansas City and Philadelphia:
- We should expect no 1-yard scores to occur in 46.7% of games
- 46.7% is higher than the 40% implied odds
- This prop can be found about 20 spots from the bottom of Caesar’s novelty props menu.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 11 Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.