Betting
11/4/22
8 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Raiders vs. Jaguars
Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Opening Spread: Jaguars +1
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.75), Raiders (23.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +1.
- This line has moved to Jaguars +1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars +1.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 47.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Jaguars: Out: Shaquill Griffin
Raiders: Questionable: WR Mack Hollins, TE Darren Waller, LB Divine Deablo
The Jaguars Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The Jaguars have a top-10 caliber offensive line. The Raiders have an average defensive front, with a high-end edge duo in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. The Jaguars' interior offensive line has an advantage in this contest, while the Raiders have the advantage on the edge.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 2-6 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 4-4 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 7-18 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 9-16 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 40-48 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 43-45 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars are scoring 21.5 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Travis Etienne is 11th in yards rushing and 23rd in yards receiving.
- Christian Kirk leads the Jaguars with his 23.1% target share, and his 28.6% air yards share is second.
- Zay Jones has a 20.7% target share and a 22.4% air yards share.
- Marvin Jones has a 16.9% target share, and his 29.3% air yards share is the most among Jaguars pass-catchers.
- Among tight ends Evan Engram is 14th in target share (16.7%) and sixth in air yards share (17.8%).
- Per TruMedia, Christian Kirk is fourth in the league in snaps from the slot with 302. Kirk has played 149 snaps on the perimeter.
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers lined up in the slot.
- The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to both in-line tight ends and those lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
The Raiders have a slightly below average offensive line. The Jaguars have a top-10 caliber front four. Jacksonville has a notable advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 4-2-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 64-68-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 70-59-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 16-19 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 18-16-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 23.3 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Keep in mind that the Raiders are 12th in the league in scoring despite being shut out last week.
- Las Vegas is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Josh Jacobs is fourth in the league in yards rushing per game and 16th in yards receiving per game.
- Davante Adams is seventh in the league in target share (28.8%) and he’s 11th in air yards share (40.1%).
- Hunter Renfrow has four or fewer targets in each of the last three games.
- Darren Waller has missed the last month. During the first four games of the season Waller had a weekly range of five to eight targets while having at least 50 yards receiving twice.
Jaguars Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 19.8 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jaguars have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Jaguars vs. Raiders
A bet on the Jaguars is built on their defensive front's advantage in the trenches. Jacksonville has failed to score 20 points in three of its last four games. If the Jaguars are going to win this one, they will either need to have an offensive surge or limit the Raiders' potent offense in an obvious bounce-back spot. The Jaguars' offense has a real shot to exceed expectations this week, but Jacksonville’s defense has been the far more consistent unit. Your biggest concern with a Jaguars bet is that the Raiders are coming off a game in which they were shut out by the Saints. We can reasonably expect Las Vegas to be much sharper on offense this week.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a talented offense that was shutout in New Orleans last week. Las Vegas has to manage their disadvantage in the trenches in this matchup, but it is in a clear bounce-back spot. Apart from last week’s contest, the Raiders are 2-4, with those four losses coming in one-score games against teams with winning records in 2021. The Raiders have shown that they can hang with the best teams in the league. Consistency has been their biggest issue this season. This is a big game for Josh McDaniels, as your biggest concern with a Raiders bet is the Jaguars' pass rush. It’s on McDaniels to help mitigate that edge through play-calling, which he failed to do in New Orleans last week. Another negative for the Raiders is that this is their second road game in a row.
This contest has some interesting scoring potential. The Jaguars' offense has been too volatile for me to bet the over in this game directly, but I’m going to get some exposure to this matchup in DFS this week. On the other hand, I might go out of my way to stack Travis Etienne with the Jaguars' defense in some lineups to get some DFS exposure to that potential outcome.
Awards Market Ramifications: Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd are Defensive Rookie of the Year contenders.
Winner/Confidence Pool: This game should be treated as a coin flip in winner pools. I’m going to rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m very torn on this game because I can make a pretty solid case for either team in this spot. My initial lean was towards the Raiders, as Jacksonville has failed to close games against strong and mediocre opponents alike. With the Raiders, most of their losses have come against above average opponents, and I like them coming off a bad loss. I still lean towards the Raiders, but the Jaguars have a few paths to exceeding expectations themselves.
Survivor Pool: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
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