Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Opening Spread: Chargers -7.
Opening Game Total: 52.5.
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (29.75), Seahawks (22.75)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers -7.
- This line has moved down to Chargers -5.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -5.5.
- This total opened at 52.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 51.5 points.
Chargers: IR: LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa. Questionable: RB Joshua Kelley, WR Keenan Allen, WR Joshua Palmer, C Corey Linsley, RT Trey Pipkins III, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day.
Seahawks: IR: S Jamal Adams. Questionable: WR Tyler Lockett, RG Gabe Jackson.
The Chargers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Chargers quarterback Chase Daniel discusses the team’s high morale after winning three straight games.
Without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, I’ve moved the Chargers from a top-five offensive line back towards the front of the middle-of-the-pack. The Seahawks have a bottom tier front. Los Angeles has a moderate edge in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Justin Herbert is 20-18 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Herbert is 22-16 on overs in his career.
- Brandon Staley is 12-11 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brandon Staley is 13-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Chargers are scoring 23.5 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- Los Angeles is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge Austin Ekeler has the 22nd most yards rushing per game among running backs. Ekeler is second among running backs in yards receiving per game this season.
- Mike Williams has been a feast or famine pass catcher this season, breaching 100 yards receiving in three games while falling below 20 yards receiving in the other three.
- Keenan Allen has missed the last five games.
- Among tight ends Gerald Everett is 14th in target share (14.6%) and ninth in air yards share (14.6%).
- Per TruMedia, Gerald Everett has played 158 snaps as an inline tight end, 32 on the perimeter, and 84 in the slot.
- The Seahawks have allowed 27.2 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have given up the seventh most yards rushing per game and the third most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the 27th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second most PPR points per game to inline tight ends this season.
The Seahawks Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Seattle’s offensive line has been among the bigger surprises this season, as I expected them to be a below average unit. I currently have them ranked 16th. When the Chargers have Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, they are a top five pass rush. With just Mack, I have the Chargers front in the middle-of-the-pack. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Geno Smith is 29-21-2 against the spread in his career.
- Geno Smith is 25-26-1 on overs in his career.
- Pete Carrol is 105-87-7 against the spread since the year 2000.
- Pete Carrol is 99-97-3 on overs since the year 2000.
- The Seahawks are scoring 24.3 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Seattle is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Geno Smith’s unexpected hot start has been one of the biggest surprises through the first third of the season. Smith had more of an average game against the Cardinals last week.
- If you expect the Seahawks to spend most of this game in a neutral game script, you want to be on the lookout for Kenneth Walker’s over in rushing attempts line. I’m expecting it to be at least 16.5, if I can find anything under that I’m going to bet it immediately.
- In his first game as the Seahawks starting running back, Walker had 21 carries for 97 yards rushing against the Cardinals last week.
- Per the Edge D.K. Metcalf has a 27.3% target share and a 37.1% air yards share.
- Tyler Lockett has a 24.6% target share and a 36.8% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Will Dissly has played 159 snaps as an inline tight end while Noah Fant has played 116 as an inline tight end.
- The Chargers have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers are facing 19 running back carries per game while giving up the eighth most yards rushing per game to the position. The Chargers are allowing the 15th most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- Los Angeles has given up the 17th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- In my Chargers team preview I questioned how well J.C. Jackson would transition from Bill Belichick’s defense to the Chargers. Jackson was a man heavy corner in New England, but some of Jackson’s early struggles can be attributed to him playing a more zone heavy role in Brandon Staley’s system.
- The Chargers have allowed the ninth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chargers have allowed the eighth most PPR points per game to inline tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Chargers vs. Seahawks
A bet on the Chargers is a bet on one of the more frustrating football teams in existence from an ATS perspective. Even though the Chargers are down two of their best players in LT Rashawn Slater and Edge Joey Bosa, they are still a loaded roster. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback. Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen (once he returns) is a pretty good trio of skill position players. The offensive line is still solid. But this defense continues to underachieve most weeks. As I mentioned above, J.C. Jackson is being used in a significantly different way than he was in New England. Not to compare Jackson to Darrelle Revis, but this situation with Jackson reminds me of when Revis went to Tampa and the Buccaneers tried to make Revis a system player instead of adjusting to his strengths. Revis then left after a year and was back to being himself under Bill Belichick. If I could rely on the Chargers coaching staff adjusting to get the most out of their own talent while deploying more opponent specific game plans, I’d enthusiastically bet on them to smash this overachieving Seahawks team. I’d also be willing to bet Austin Ekeler’s over receptions in this specific matchup against Seattle even if it opened at something ridiculous like 5.5. As it is now, I still lean in both of those directions.
A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on Geno Smith continuing to play like a brand-new player. Smith had more of a mild game against the Cardinals last week, but he was still solid in yet another Seahawks win. If you’re interested in betting on the Seahawks to cover at this adjusted number, you are either betting on them to back door cover or for them to keep this contest close for most of the day. In the latter scenario, Kenneth Walker could approach 20 carries. Justin Herbert could conceivably lay siege to this Seahawks defense. That is my biggest concern with a Seahawks bet.
Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Herbert is an MVP contender. Khalil Mack is a Defensive Player of the Year contender. Geno Smith is a Comeback Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Chargers in my winner pools, and I expect to be right near consensus on them in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I have limited interest in taking the Chargers as a significant favorite, yet I am not a believer in Seattle. I’m going to avoid this game from an ATS perspective, but I would take the Chargers if forced to pick a side.
Survivor Pool: The Chargers have two strong matchups in survivor pools, this is one of them.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
WATCH MORE: Pro Bowl RBs Know Breece Hall is Legit