Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Opening Spread: Bengals -6.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25.75), Falcons (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bengals -6.
- This line has moved up to Bengals -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals -6.5.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 47.5 points.
Bengals: IR: D.J. Reader. Questionable: WR Ja’Marr Chase, TE Hayden Hurst, RG Alex Cappa, DT Josh Tupou, LB Logan Wilson.
Falcons: IR: Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Casey Hayward. Questionable: CB Dee Alford.
The Bengals Offense vs. Falcons Defense
The Bengals revamped offensive line has struggled this season. But they’ve also played four top-10 caliber front fours. From a macro sense, the Falcons have a bottom-tier front four, making this a relative draw in the trenches. However, Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is a matchup problem against most opponents.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 19-13 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 15-16-1 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 29-26 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 24-30-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 23 points per game, good for 15th in the league.
- Cincinnati is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge Joe Mixon is 16th among running backs with 347 yards rushing and he’s ninth with 149 yards receiving.
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 27.8% target share with a 38.7% air yards share.
- Tee Higgins has a 16.6% target share with a 24.4% air yards share.
- Tyler Boyd has a 12.6% target share with a 16.8% air yards share.
- Hayden Hurst has a 13.9% target share with an 8.2% air yards share.
- The Falcons have allowed 22.7 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 18th most yards rushing per game and the 11th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Atlanta has given up the seventh most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Atlanta has given up the seventh most PPR points per game to both perimeter and slot receivers.
- The Falcons have allowed the third most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Falcons have allowed the sixth most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the eighth most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Falcons Offense vs. Bengals Defense
D.J. Reader’s absence reduces the Bengals formidable run defense. Edge Trey Hendrickson is a rock-solid pass rusher, but the Bengals front is below average as a whole. Atlanta’s offensive line is on the fringe between average and below average, making this matchup a relative draw in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 4-2 on overs this season.
- Marcus Mariota is 39-37-2 against the spread in his career.
- Marcus Mariota is 44-33-1 on overs in his career.
- Arthur Smith is 12-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Arthur Smith is 11-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Falcons are scoring 24.3 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Atlanta is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Marcus Mariota is seventh among quarterbacks with 210 yards rushing.
- In the two games that Cordarrelle Patterson has missed, Tyler Allgeier has 28 total carries while Caleb Huntley has 24.
- Drake London is fourth in the league with a 32.3% target share paired with his 30% air yards share.
- Among tight ends Kyle Pitts is third with a 22.9% target share and he’s second with his 31.4% air yards share.
- The Bengals have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has ranked the Bengals defense seventh overall.
- The Bengals held Lamar Jackson to 58 yards rushing on 12 carries earlier this season.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 25th most yards rushing per game and the 19th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 24th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the fifth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bengals vs. Falcons
The 3-3 Bengals have lost those three games by a total of eight points. Two of those losses were against 2021 playoff teams in the Steelers and Cowboys, while the other was against Lamar Jackson’s Ravens in Baltimore. Our T.J. McCreight has been higher than consensus on the Bengals defense dating back to the preseason. The Bengals have only allowed more than 20 points in two out of six games this season. Cincinnati’s potent offense has scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. The reigning AFC champion Bengals are trending up, and they are capable of blowing the doors off the overachieving Falcons this week. A bet on the Bengals is a bet on a championship-caliber football team beating the overachieving Falcons decisively.
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on an overachieving team coming off an upset victory over the 49ers last week. If you’re betting on Atlanta here, you’re betting on them to exceed expectations two weeks in a row against two of the four teams that were still alive on championship weekend last year. Atlanta is 6-0 against the spread this year, so they’ve already made a habit of playing above expectations. My biggest concern with a Falcons bet is that their front four is the weakest that the Bengals have played so far this season. Cincinnati’s offensive line has struggled this season. This matchup represents the best opportunity for a ceiling game that the Bengals offense has had this season.
Awards Market Ramifications: Drake London is an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Bengals in my winner pools, and I expect to be slightly higher than consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This game is very similar to Chargers vs. Seahawks for me. I don’t really want to bet on the Bengals as a significant favorite, but I’m also not a believer in Atlanta’s better than expected start. If I had to pick a side here, I’d take the Bengals, but I’m leaning towards avoiding them in tournaments.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
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