Analysis
12/31/22
7 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Rams vs. Chargers
Rams (5-10) at Chargers (9-6)
Opening Spread: Chargers -7
Opening Game Total: 41
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24) Rams (17)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers -7
- This line has moved to Chargers -6.5
- DraftKings Pick’em has the Chargers -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -6.5
- This total opened at 41-points
- This total has moved to 40.5-points
Notable Injuries
Chargers: Out - S Derwin James.
Rams: Out - DT Aaron Donald, C Brian Allen. Questionable - TE Tyler Higbee, Edge Leonard Floyd.
Chargers Offense vs. Rams Defense
Still, without LT Rashawn Slater, I have the Chargers' offensive line tiered as a slightly below-average group. Without Aaron Donald, I have the Rams' defensive front tiered as a below-average group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 9-5-1 against the spread this season
- The Chargers are 6-9 on overs this season
- Justin Herbert is 25-21-1 against the spread in his career
- Justin Herbert is 25-22 on overs in his career
- Brandon Staley is 17-14-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Brandon Staley is 16-16 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Chargers Offense
- The Chargers are scoring 22.1 points per game, good for 13th in the league
- Los Angeles is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing
- The Chargers are passing on 69% of their plays and running on 31% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler is 25th in the league in yards rushing (759), but he’s fifth in rushing touchdowns (11) and the leader among running backs in yards receiving (647)
- Keenan Allen has 14 targets in three of his last four games
- Since returning from injury Mike Williams has at least 67 yards receiving in each of the last three games
- Williams has breached 100 yards receiving in four of his 11 games this season
- Over the last three games with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams active, Josh Palmer has a 12.2% target share and a 22% air yards share
- Gerald Everett has an 11.3% target share and a 6.8% air yards share during that span
- Per TruMedia, Mike Williams has played 523 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot
- Keenan Allen has played 160 snaps on the perimeter and 238 in the slot
- Josh Palmer has played 560 snaps on the perimeter and 212 in the slot
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 17th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 20th-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Los Angeles has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Los Angeles has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
- The Rams have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
Rams Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line. The Chargers' defensive front is in an interesting position this week, Joey Bosa is back for at least a few snaps. When Bosa is on the field, the Chargers have a top-ten-level pass rush and a major trench advantage against the Rams. When Bosa is out, the Chargers have a slightly below-average front and only a mild trench advantage against the Rams.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 5-9-1 against the spread this season
- The Rams are 6-9 on overs this season
- Baker Mayfield is 28-41-1 against the spread in his career
- Baker Mayfield is 34-35-1 on overs in his career
- Sean McVay is 48-45-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Sean McVay is 45-50-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 18.7 points per game, which is 26th in the league
- Los Angeles is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing
- The Rams are passing on 63% of their plays and running on 37% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- The Rams are 2-1 with Baker Mayfield as their quarterback
- Per the Edge, Cam Akers has at least 60 yards rushing in four of his last six games
- Van Jefferson has yet to breach 50 yards receiving in a game this season
- Tutu Atwell has four or more targets in three of his last four games
- Tyler Higbee is coming off a monster 9-94-2 line on 11 targets against the Broncos last week
Chargers Defense
- The Chargers have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 21st in the league
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Los Angeles has given up the 28th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Chargers have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The battle of Los Angeles is not quite what we were expecting back when the schedule was released. Baker Mayfield will make his fourth start for the Rams, who are coming off one of the most unexpected offensive surges of the season last week as they hung 51 points on the Broncos. The Chargers have made the playoffs, it’s just a matter of where they will be seeded. There is at least some motivation to be the fifth seed, as a date with the Jaguars or Titans is more appealing than a trip to Kansas City, Cincinnati, or Buffalo. Still, the Chargers could limit or outright hold out some of their key pieces over the next two weeks.
If You’re Betting on the Chargers
The Chargers have won their past three games, and they are peaking at the right time of year. The Chargers are a pass-centric offense, and the Rams are better against the run than the pass. The Rams will also continue to be without Aaron Donald, which makes the Rams' pass rush far more benign. The Chargers' offense has the raw materials to exceed their 24-point team total. Defensively, the Chargers are facing a Rams offense that is 26th in the league in points per game after scoring 51 last week. The Rams' offensive onslaught was more about the Broncos than the Rams, and the Chargers' defense has held their previous three opponents below 20 points.
In this contest, they will get difference-making pass rusher Joey Bosa back. Bosa will be on a pitch count, but his presence alone could result in a few stalled drives for the Rams. Your primary concern as a Chargers bettor is related to motivation. It wouldn’t be unreasonable for the Chargers to limit players like Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen over the next two weeks. The Chargers' various talent advantages might be reduced and that will create more paths to a closer game.
If You’re Betting on the Rams
When considering a Rams bet I would advise treating last week’s 51-point spike game as if it never happened. That contest was more about the Broncos not showing up than it was about the Rams blowing out an NFL team. That said, it’s clear that the Rams are still putting forth considerable effort. The Rams have an exceptional head coach, but from a talent perspective, they don’t have a lot of great matchups against the Chargers. A bet on the Rams is more of a bet on a sleep game from the Chargers than it is a bet on the Rams.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: Take the Chargers across the board in winner pools unless late news breaks that they will be resting starters. I expect to be in line with the consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: It's the Chargers or pass here, and the Chargers are currently among my ATS tournament pool options.
Survivor Pool: I wouldn’t be opposed to using the Chargers in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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