Analysis
12/29/22
8 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bears vs. Lions
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8)
Opening Spread: Lions -5.5
Opening Game Total: 51.5
Opening Team Totals: Lions (28.5) Bears (23)
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions -5.5
- This line has moved to Lions -6.5
- This total opened at 51.5 points
- This total remains at 51.5 points
Notable Injuries
Lions: Questionable: WR Josh Reynolds, C Frank Ragnow, S DeShon Elliott, S Kerby Joseph.
Bears: Out: CB Jaylon Johnson. Questionable: WR Chase Claypool, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, LG Cody Whitehair, DT Justin Jones.
Lions Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Lions have a top-five-caliber offensive line. The Bears have a bottom-tier defensive front. The Lions' offensive line has a massive advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 10-5 against the spread this season
- Detroit is 10-5 on overs this season
- Jared Goff is 53-43-2 against the spread in his career
- Goff is 49-49 on overs in his career
- Dan Campbell is 25-19 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Campbell is 22-22 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Lions Offense
- Detroit is scoring 26.1 points per game, fifth best in the league
- The Lions are eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing
- Detroit passes on 58% of plays and runs on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Goff has exceeded 300 yards passing in three of his past four games
- D’Andre Swift has double-digit carries in just two of his 12 games, but he has five or more targets in four of his last five games
- Jamaal Williams is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 850, and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns with 14
- Williams didn’t have double-digit carries for the first time last week, but he left that contest because of a knee injury
- Williams is off the injury report, but if his status worsens Justin Jackson would be in line for role expansion
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is fifth in the league in receptions (96), 10th in yards receiving (1,050), 10th in target share (28.4%) with a 24.1% air yards share
- DJ Chark has surpassed 90 yards receiving in three of his last four games
- Chark has a 13.2% target share with a 28.2% air yards share during that span
- Jameson Williams has flashed his explosive talent since returning from injury, but he’s only taken 43 snaps and ran 19 routes during those four games
- Shane Zylstra had five receptions and three touchdowns last week
- Zylstra has 10 receptions and four touchdowns on the season
Bears Defense
- Chicago has allowed 26.2 points per game, which is 31st in the league
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Chicago has given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers
- The Bears have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends
Bears Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Bears have a below-average offensive line. I have the Lions' defensive front tiered in the average to slightly below-average range. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, where the Lions’ front has some spike game potential.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 5-9-1 against the spread this season
- Chicago is 10-5 on overs this season
- Justin Fields is 9-16-1 against the spread in his career
- Fields is 13-13 on overs in his career
- Matt Eberflus is 5-9-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Eberflus is 10-5 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Bears Offense
- Chicago is scoring 20.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the league
- The Bears are 32nd in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing
- Chicago passes on 50% of plays and runs on 50% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Fields is seventh in the league in yards rushing with 1,011, and he’s tied for 12th in rushing touchdowns with eight
- David Montgomery is 26th in the league in yards rushing with 756, and Khalil Herbert is 35th with 651 yards rushing
- In Herbert’s return to action against the Bills last week, Montgomery had 16 carries and four targets while Herbert had six carries and three targets
- Herbert had 10 carries to Montgomery’s nine when the Bears played the Lions earlier this season
- In his five games as a Bear, Chase Claypool has breached 30 yards receiving once
- Equanimeous St. Brown has been held below 10 yards receiving six games this season, but he went for 85 against the Packers in early December
- Cole Kmet has four or more targets in each of his last seven games, and he’s had six or more targets in five of those contests
- Per TruMedia, Kmet has played 529 snaps as an inline tight end, 69 on the perimeter and 234 in the slot
Lions Defense
- Detroit has allowed 26.7 points per game, which is 32nd in the league
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the 10th-most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Detroit has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Lions have given up the ninth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the second-most to those in the slot
- Detroit has allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points to inline tight ends
This Is What You’re Betting On
I was a little surprised the Lions opened as this large of a favorite, but the Bears are without a number of their best players, and Detroit has much more to play for than Chicago. The Lions beat the Bears 31-30 in Chicago earlier this year. Despite the Lions' loss last week, Detroit is on a 6-2 run and remains alive in the NFC Wild Card race. The Bears have lost eight games in a row and 11 of their last 12.
If You’re Betting on the Lions
You’re building any Lions bet around their offense. In this matchup Detroit’s offense has a massive advantage in the trenches, their wide receivers have a good matchup against Chicago’s injury-reduced secondary, and Swift is positioned for a big game. Goff has a number of talent advantages on his side of the ball. Your biggest concern as a Lions' bettor is Fields already has shown he can hang in a shootout with Detroit. The Lions' defensive front has had a number of spike games this season. You don’t want to base a Lions bet around that possibility, but that’s on the table considering the Bears' pass protection issues.
If You’re Betting on the Bears
For the first time in recent memory, any Bears bet is built around their offense. Fields has evolved into a dynamic playmaker who has kept the Bears in games throughout the year. If you’re betting on the Bears, you are building that bet around Fields and Chicago’s dynamic running game. That’s where the positives end for Chicago, which is 3-12.
The Bears have been without their best wide receiver in Darnell Mooney for weeks, and Claypool has made a minimal impact to this point. That’s especially problematic because the Lions are a top-10 offense that can beat teams in every phase. The Bears will take on Detroit without their four best opening-day defenders. While professional football players are capable of playing “up” on any given Sunday, the Bears' ability to keep this one close is primarily on Fields’ offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Goff is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Campbell is a Coach of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Lions in my winner pools, and I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I’m hesitant to bet on the Lions at this number, but the Bears are entirely reliant on Fields and their running game in this contest. I will look at props later in the week, but at this point, I intend to pass ATS.
Survivor Pool: Detroit is a perfectly reasonable survivor pool option as a 6.5-point home favorite. My only hesitancy here is that this is a divisional game where the first contest between these teams was decided by one point.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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