Analysis
12/17/22
7 min read
NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Titans vs. Chargers
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)
Opening Spread: Chargers -3.
Opening Game Total: 46.
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24.5) Titans (21.5).
Weather: Hybrid venue, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers -3.
- This line has moved to Chargers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -3.
- This total opened at 46-points.
- This total has moved to 45.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Chargers: Doubtful: S Derwin James. Questionable: RT Trey Pipkins III, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day.
Titans: Out: WR Treylon Burks, DL Denico Autry, CB Kristian Fulton, CB Tre Avery, S Amani Hooker.
The Chargers Offense vs. Titans Defense
I have the Chargers offensive line tiered in slightly below-average territory. If premium left tackle Rashawn Slater returns this season, that would give this group a big bump. Without difference maker Denico Autry, I have the Titans defensive front tiered as a fringe top-ten unit. The Titans defensive front has a moderate trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 8-5 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 6-7 on overs this season.
- Justin Herbert is 24-21 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Herbert is 25-20 on overs in his career.
- Brandon Staley is 16-14 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brandon Staley is 16-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Chargers Offense
- The Chargers are scoring 22.7 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- Los Angeles is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
- The Chargers are passing on 70% of their plays and running on 30% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler is 27th in the league in yards rushing with 634. Ekeler is first among running backs in yards receiving.
- Keenan Allen has 14 targets in each of his last two games. Allen has a 19.4% target share with a 28.7% air yards share on the season.
- Mike Williams has a 17.4% target share with a 31.5% air yards share this season. Williams has breached 100 yards receiving in four of his nine games this season, including last week’s matchup against the Dolphins.
- Josh Palmer has an 18.9% target share with a 30% air yards share.
- Gerald Everett has a 14% target share with a 13.4% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Keenan Allen has played 111 snaps on the perimeter and 171 in the slot.
- Mike Williams has played 420 snaps on the perimeter and 65 in the slot.
- Josh Palmer has played 507 snaps on the perimeter and 182 in the slot.
Titans Defense
- The Titans have allowed 21.2 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth most to those in the slot.
- The Titans have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Titans Offense vs. Chargers Defense
I have the Titans offensive line tiered as a below-average unit. Without Joey Bosa, I have the Chargers defensive front tiered in the same area. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-5 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 70-69-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 76-64-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-36-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 43-34-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Titans Offense
- The Titans are scoring 18.5 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Tennessee is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- The Titans are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is second in the league in yards rushing with 1199 and he’s tied for third in rushing touchdowns with 11. Henry has breached 100 yards rushing in a game six this season.
- Robert Woods has a 21.1% target share with a 23.7% air yards share. Woods has less than 20 yards receiving in four of his last six games.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has a 12.7% target share with a 20.9% air yards share.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has at least five targets in each of his last three games. With Treylon Burks sidelined, Okonkwo is the most dynamic pass catcher on the Titans.
Chargers Defense
- The Chargers have allowed 25.1 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chargers have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Titans vs. Chargers
This is an interesting matchup where the strength of each offense just so happens to be the weakness of the opposing defense. The Titans need to win a couple of games to secure the AFC South, while the Chargers will likely need to win three of their last four to get into the playoffs.
If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are primarily betting on Justin Herbert to at least meet expectations. The Titans have been shredded through the air this season, and they are once again down multiple starters on defense. This is one of the few games this season that Herbert has his full complement of weapons on offense. The Chargers are down several difference-makers on defense. Ryan Tannehill is capable of a spike game, as he showed against the Packers earlier in the season, but ultimately the Titans’ passing attack has a group of below-average pass catchers. Your concern as a Chargers bettor is that Derrick Henry runs wild against a Los Angeles defense that struggles against the run by design.
I wrote in my Titans team preview before the season that, outside of Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s defensive front, the Titans are below average at every other position group unless their young secondary takes a step forward. The Titans are well-coached, but they have dropped three in a row because they have a very average roster. On offense, if you’re betting on the Titans, you are primarily betting on Derrick Henry having a big game against the Chargers run sieve. The Titans are at their best when Henry is a factor while Ryan Tannehill plays an efficient game. You don’t want Ryan Tannehill to have to go toe-to-toe with Justin Herbert in a potential shootout. That brings you to your biggest concern as a Titans bettor: you need Tennessee to at least keep things close against Justin Herbert with his full complement of skill position players. The Titans defensive front can be a factor in mitigating Herbert, but that group is down their second-best player in Denico Autry, and the Titans secondary has been torched by worse offenses than this one.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be Chargers heavy in winner pools, and I expect to be a slot or two above consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I have taken the Chargers -2.5 ATS, and I would still take them at -3.
Survivor Pool: I’d prefer to avoid this contest in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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