Betting
12/10/22
8 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Ravens vs. Steelers
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Opening Spread: Steelers -2.
Opening Game Total: 37.5.
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (19.75) Ravens (17.75).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Steelers -2.
- This line has moved to Steelers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers -2.5.
- This total opened at 37.5 points.
- This total remains at 37.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Steelers: Questionable: WR Diontae Johnson, Edge T.J. Watt.
Ravens: Doubtful: QB Lamar Jackson. Questionable: RG Kevin Zeitler, LB Patrick Queen.
The Steelers Offense vs. the Ravens Defense
The Steelers have an uncharacteristically below-average offensive line. I have the Ravens tiered as an average defensive line. Baltimore has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 6-5-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 5-7 on overs this season.
- Kenny Pickett is 5-4 against the spread in his career.
- Kenny Pickett is 4-5 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 129-119-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Tomlin is 111-139-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Steelers Offense
- The Steelers are scoring 17.8 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Pittsburgh is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- The Steelers are passing on 63% of their plays and running on 37% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Najee Harris is 18th in the league in yards rushing with 671. Harris has had sporadic passing game usage in recent weeks. Over his last five games, he’s had six targets twice and one target three times.
- Diontae Johnson hasn’t had more than five receptions or 65 yards receiving in a game since Kenny Pickett took over, despite having double-digit targets in three of those nine contests.
- Since Kenny Pickett took over, George Pickens has breached 80 yards receiving in three of nine games.
- Among tight ends, Pat Freiermuth is fifth in target share (20.1%) and sixth in air yards share (19.8%).
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the seventh-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the ninth-most to those in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Ravens Offense vs. the Steelers Defense
The Ravens have a top-ten offensive line. Now that T.J. Watt is back, the Steelers have a top-ten, bordering on top-five defensive front. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 5-7 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 36-33-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 32-38 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 118-110-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 114-122-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 23.8 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Baltimore is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- The Ravens are passing on 57% of their plays and running on 43% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- If Lamar Jackson misses this game as expected, Tyler Huntley takes over at quarterback for the Ravens. As a starter, Huntley is 3-1 against the spread.
- Huntley had more than 30 passing attempts in five games last year. He had at least 40 yards rushing in all of those contests, while breaching 200 yards passing in three of those matchups.
- Per the Edge, last week’s contest with Denver was a bit of a mess, as Lamar Jackson left early. That said, Kenyan Drake had seven carries, Gus Edwards had six, and Justice Hill had one.
- Demarcus Robinson has eight or more targets in three of his last five games.
- After a month’s worth of limited targets, Devin Duvernay has 11 targets over his last two games.
- In those five games that Tyler Huntley saw significant run last year, Mark Andrews had double-digit targets in four of those games and at least 70 yards receiving in all of them.
Steelers Defense
- The Steelers have allowed 23.1 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing per game and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Pittsburgh has given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the second-most to those in the slot.
- The Steelers have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Steelers vs. Ravens
Tyler Huntley was an effective fill-in for Lamar Jackson last season, but he had his worst game in a 16-13 overtime loss to the Steelers last year. The Steelers and the Ravens have been among the most successful and consistent football operations since the turn of the century. That said, these Steelers and Ravens are both less reliable than we’ve grown accustomed to.
Since their Week 10 bye, the Ravens have narrow wins against the Panthers and Broncos, along with a loss to the Jaguars. The Ravens offense wasn’t exactly impressive with Lamar Jackson in recent weeks. While Tyler Huntley is a very good backup quarterback, if you’re betting on the Ravens, you are betting on a limited offense. After a pretty underwhelming first half, the Ravens defense has given up 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Those positive outputs came against the Saints, Panthers, and Broncos’ bottom-tier offenses, but progress is progress.
If you’re betting on Baltimore, I’m building that bet around the Ravens defense keeping this game close. Your biggest concern with a Ravens bet is that Lamar Jackson has generally struggled against Pittsburgh and Huntley had his worst game against the Steelers last season. Since Huntley has a similar skill set to Jackson, we can reasonably say that the Ravens offense struggles against the Steelers. A good game out of the Ravens offense against Pittsburgh would be an outlier performance.
After their Week 9 bye, the Steelers have gone 3-1. Their only loss during that span came in a 37-30 defeat at the hands of Joe Burrow’s Bengals. If you’re betting on the Steelers, you are betting on a young team that’s been improving on both sides of the ball. On offense Kenny Pickett has been up and down, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in four games, and he’s had a number of positive moments.
If you’re betting on the Steelers, you’re looking for another clean game out of Pickett. A bet on Pittsburgh is primarily built around the Steelers defense, which has been a different unit since T.J. Watt’s return. This group has given Lamar Jackson trouble over the last several seasons, and Tyler Huntley had his worst game last year against Pittsburgh. Your biggest concern as a Steelers bettor is that the Ravens defense comes into Pittsburgh and wins this game against the Steelers young, volatile offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m treating this as a true coin flip game, where I’ll have exposure to both teams in winner pools. I expect to be lower than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I think Pittsburgh has more paths to a win here, so I’m debating them as one of my plays this week.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools if possible.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
WATCH MORE: Tyler Huntley Is Not Lamar Jackson, But He Won't Break The Ravens Offense
