Betting
12/2/22
7 min read
NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Broncos vs. Ravens
Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Opening Spread: Ravens -8.
Opening Game Total: 38.5
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (23.25), Broncos (15.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -8.
- This line has moved down to Ravens -7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Ravens -8.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Ravens -8.5.
- This total opened at 38.5 points.
- This total remains at 38.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Ravens: Questionable: LT Ronnie Staley, CB Marlon Humphrey
Broncos: Out: WR K.J. Hamler; Questionable: WR Jerry Jeudy, LG Dalton Risner, DL Dre’Mont Jones
The Ravens Offense vs. Broncos Defense
The Ravens have a top-ten-level offensive line at full strength. Premium left tackle Ronnie Stanley missed last week’s contest in Jacksonville and remains on the injury report this week. Denver has a fringe top-ten pass rush when it is at full strength. Without difference-making edge Randy Gregory, Denver’s front is more of a middle-of-the-pack unit. This trench matchup is a relative draw, though the Broncos will have a moderate advantage on the outside if Staley misses this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 4-7 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 36-32-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 32-37 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 118-109-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 114-121-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 25 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Baltimore is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- The Ravens are passing on 55% of their offensive snaps and running on 45%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 755.
- Gus Edwards returned to action last week where he took on 16 of the 19 running back carries against the Jaguars.
- Demarcus Robinson has eight or more targets in two of his last four games.
- Devin Duvernay has seven targets over his last three games, with five of them coming last week against the Jaguars.
- DeSean Jackson has five targets over his last two games. Jackson had 74 yards receiving last week, with 62 of those yards coming on one reception.
- Among tight ends Mark Andrews is second in receptions (52), second in yards receiving (601), second in touchdowns (5), first in target share (27.9%), and first in air yards share (34.5%).
Broncos Defense
- The Broncos have allowed 17.6 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Denver has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Broncos have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Broncos Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Broncos have a bottom-tier offensive line. The Ravens’ front is on the border of average and below average. Baltimore’s defense has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 3-8 against the spread this season.
- The Broncos are 1-10 on overs this season.
- Russell Wilson is 86-76-6 against the spread in his career.
- Russell Wilson is 76-91-1 on overs in his career.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 3-8 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 1-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Broncos Offense
- The Broncos are scoring 14.3 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Denver is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- The Broncos are passing on 64% of their offensive snaps and running on 36%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Denver scored ten points as a slight road favorite in Carolina last week.
- Per the Edge, Latavius Murray took on 13 of the Broncos' 15 running back carries against the Panthers last week.
- Courtland Sutton has a 24.6% target share and a 34.8% air yards share.
- Jerry Jeudy has an 18.5% target share and a 23.5% air yards share.
- Kendall Hinton had a team-leading nine targets last week against the Panthers.
- Greg Dulcich has a 15% target share and an 18.7% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Courtland Sutton has played 564 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot.
- Jerry Jeudy has played 130 snaps on the perimeter and 246 in the slot.
- Kendall Hinton has played 154 snaps on the perimeter and 145 in the slot.
- Greg Dulcich has played 153 snaps as an in-line tight end, 18 on the perimeter, and 127 in the slot.
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 20.6 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the seventh-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fourth-most to slot receivers.
- The Ravens have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Ravens have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Ravens vs. Broncos
A bet on the Ravens is a bet on one of the least reliable Ravens teams in recent memory. Lamar Jackson is a historic talent as a runner, but this Ravens' passing attack is a consistently low-volume group. Part of the reason for that is Baltimore has a bottom-tier group of wide receivers. That group has a very tough matchup against the Broncos' high-quality secondary this week. That’s why if you’re betting on the Ravens, you’re building that bet around Baltimore’s ability to effectively run the ball. The Ravens' defense gave last week’s game up on a late surge from Trevor Lawrence, but overall Baltimore’s defense has been trending up. If you’re betting on Baltimore, you’re betting on the Ravens' defense against Denver’s league-worst offense. Your biggest concern as a Ravens bettor is that they win this game by seven or fewer points in a defensive struggle. A Russell Wilson spike game becomes less likely every week, but it’s at least something you need to consider given his history.
A bet on the Broncos is a bet on one of the most disappointing teams in football. Russell Wilson’s offense is non-functioning, and the Broncos' defense has been in a state of decline for a few weeks. If you’re betting on Denver, you are betting on a freefalling team that just lost by 13 to the Panthers last week. If you’re betting on the Broncos you are betting on one of two core outcomes. The first is that Lamar Jackson's offense underwhelms enough to keep this game under its very low 38.5-point game total. The second is that Russell Wilson finally has a spike game, where the Broncos breach 20 points for the first time since Week 8 against the Jaguars, which is only the second time Denver has scored 20 or more points this season. Your biggest concern with a Broncos bet is that the bottom is about to truly fall out for this team, and they are getting the Ravens coming off a loss.
Awards Market Ramifications: None
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Ravens in all of my winner pools. I expect to be in line with the consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will either take the Ravens' side or pass in this contest. The Broncos are one of a few teams I can no longer bet on this season.
Survivor Pool: If you still have the Ravens they are a very solid survivor pool option in a difficult late-season week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
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