Betting
11/26/22
8 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Packers at Eagles
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Opening Spread: Eagles -7
Opening Game Total: 45
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (26), Packers (19)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -7.
- This line has moved down to Eagles -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -7.
- This total opened at 45 points.
- This total has moved up slightly to 45.5 points.
The Eagles Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line. Green Bay is a top-ten level defensive front at full strength. However, they are down their best pass rusher in Rashan Gary. The Packers now have an average defensive front. The Eagles have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest, with a significant edge in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 5-5 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 6-4 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 18-21-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 20-20 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 13-13-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 16-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Eagles Offense
- The Eagles are scoring 26.3 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Philadelphia is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts’ 440 yards rushing is fifth among quarterbacks.
- Miles Sanders’ 757 yards rushing is tenth in the league. Sanders has more than one target in four of his ten games this season. Sanders hasn’t had more than one target in a game since October ninth.
- A.J. Brown has 49 receptions on 80 targets for 785 yards receiving and six touchdowns this season. Brown has a 28.9% target share with a 38.8% air yards share.
- DeVonta Smith has 52 receptions on 70 targets for 559 yards receiving and three touchdowns this season. Smith has a 25.3% target share with a 29.3% air yards share.
- Quez Watkins hasn’t exceeded four targets in a game this season, but he’s breached 65 yards receiving twice.
- Jack Stoll caught his sole target for seven yards last week against the Colts.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 22.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Green Bay has held Justin Fields to 20 yards rushing on eight carries, Daniel Jones to 37 yards rushing on ten carries, and Josh Allen to 49 yards rushing on six carries this season.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Packers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
At full strength the Packers have a fringe top-ten offensive line, which is what they’ll be this week as long as left tackle David Bakhtiari is good to go. The Eagles have a top-five defensive line with arguably the league’s best depth along their front. The Eagles have a moderate trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 4-7 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 5-6 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 126-94-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 115-107-2 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 36-24 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 28-32 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 18.4 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Green Bay is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Aaron Rodgers has yet to breach 300 yards passing in a game this season. He was close against the Lions a few weeks ago with 291 yards passing, but that’s the only time he’s breached 260 yards passing in a game this season.
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones’ 778 yards rushing are the eighth-most in the league. Jones’ 248 yards receiving are ninth among running backs.
- A.J. Dillon has double-digit carries in eight of his 11 games this season. Dillon has breached 50 yards rushing four times this year.
- Allen Lazard leads the Packers in target share (21.9%) and air yards share (33.2%).
- Christian Watson has eight catches on 14 targets for 155 yards receiving and five touchdowns over his last two games. Watson has a 25% target share and a 46.7% air yards share over that span.
- After missing a month Randall Cobb returned to action last week to catch all six of his targets for 73 yards receiving.
- Robert Tonyan has four or more targets in eight of his eleven games this season. Tonyan has one real usage spike on the season to date, where he saw 12 targets against the Jets in mid-October.
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 18.3 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the 27th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
Biggest Concern as an Eagles Bettor
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on the league’s best roster. The Eagles have a top-ten secondary, top-five level lines on both sides of the ball, a top-ten wide receiver duo, Miles Sanders is top-ten in yards rushing and Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender. If you’re betting on the Eagles, that is what you are betting on. Philadelphia has an advantage on Green Bay in both trenches as well as their secondary against the Packers' wide receivers.
That said, the Eagles have struggled over the last two weeks, losing to the Commanders in the Monday Night Football game and narrowly escaping the Colts in Indianapolis last week. Your biggest concern as an Eagles bettor is that Philadelphia is currently playing its most uneven football of the season this year, and Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are in do or die mode with their 4-7 record.
Three Things to Watch For As A Packers Bettor
A bet on the Packers is a bet on three things. The first is you’re getting Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The second is that the Eagles’ run defense has been very beatable the last several weeks, and Green Bay has an outstanding running back duo. The third is that Green Bay is still a strong pass defense despite losing difference-making pass rusher Rashan Gary and cornerback Eric Stokes. If the Packers have success on the ground while Rodgers plays well, Green Bay has a clear path to covering, if not winning, this contest against a better overall team.
That said, you have a number of concerns as a Packers bettor. The first is that Green Bay’s offense has lacked a significant ceiling all year due to its limitations in its pass-catching group. That’s a real problem here as the Eagles have a top-ten secondary. On top of that, the Eagles have an advantage in both trenches. The Packers have been shredded on the ground this year, and now they get one of the best offensive lines in football. If the Eagles play at their best Green Bay is going to be in trouble here.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender. Nick Sirianni is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: More importantly, I’m going to be Eagles heavy in winner pools. However, I’m going to take the Packers in at least one as a differentiator option. I expect to be a little below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Moreover, I’m not going to bet this game directly, but in ATS pools where I pick every game I’m going to take the Packers' side. I’m not sure how many more chances I’ll get to bet on Aaron Rodgers as a full touchdown underdog.
Survivor Pool: Indeed, there are a number of great options in survivor pools this week, so I’d avoid this game if you reasonably can.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith the Better DFS Play vs. Packers?
