Betting
11/18/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Lions at Giants
Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2)
Opening Spread: Giants -3.5
Opening Game Total: 46
Opening Team Totals: Giants (24.75), Lions (21.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some chance for impactful wind
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants -3.5.
- This line remains as Giants -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants -3.
- This total opened at 46 points.
- This total has moved down slightly to 45.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Giants: Out: TE Daniel Bellinger, Edge Azeez Ojulari, CB Aaron Robinson, S Xavier McKinney; Doubtful: RT Evan Neal; Questionable: WR Wan’Dale Robinson, WR Kenny Golladay, LG Joshua Ezeudu, DL Jihad Ward, DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux, S Dane Belton
Lions: Out: WR Jameson Williams, WR D.J. Chark; Questionable: WR Josh Reynolds, C Frank Ragnow, Edge Josh Paschal, S DeShon Elliott
The Giants Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Giants' offensive line is on the average to below-average border at full strength. This group moves closer to below-average territory if Evan Neal misses this contest. Detroit has a bottom-tier front, making this trench matchup a relative draw. Accordingly, Lions rookie edge Aidan Hutchinson will have an individual matchup advantage when he lines up over the Giants' right tackle.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 7-2 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 2-7 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 26-21 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 17-28-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 7-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 2-7 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 20.8 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- New York is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- Detroit gave up 90 yards rushing with a score on 17 carries to Jalen Hurts on opening day and 147 yards rushing with two scores on 13 carries to Justin Fields last week.
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones 387 yards rushing is fourth among quarterbacks.
- Saquon Barkley’s 931 yards rushing currently leads the league. Barkley is 14th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Darius Slayton has four or more targets in four of his last five games. Slayton has 50 or more yards receiving in four of those contests. Slayton has a 13.5% target share and a 29.7% air yards share.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s 14.6% target share is only behind Saquon Barkley among active Giants. Robinson has played roughly two-thirds of his snaps out of the slot this season.
Lions Defense
- The Lions have allowed 29.3 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the sixth-most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Detroit has given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Lions have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends this season.
The Lions Offense vs. Giants Defense
The Lions' offensive line is a top-ten level unit. The Giants' defensive front is a top-ten level unit. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a macro advantage. However, New York has a top-five interior duo in Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence, the latter of whom is having a monster season in a contract year.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 5-4 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 6-3 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 48-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jared Goff is 45-47 on overs in his career.
- Dan Campbell is 20-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dan Campbell is 18-20 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Lions Offense
- The Lions are scoring 24.3 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- Detroit is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jamaal Williams is 15th among running backs in yards rushing (604) and tied for second with nine rushing touchdowns.
- D’Andre Swift has 13 total carries and 12 total targets over his last three games since returning from injury. Swift is still playing through that injury.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has 30 targets over his last three games. St. Brown shredded the Bears for 119 yards receiving on ten receptions last week.
- Josh Reynolds has missed each of the last two games, yet Kalif Raymond only has three targets in each of Detroit’s last two games. Raymond saw more targets in each of his previous four contests.
- Brock Wright and James Mitchell are roughly splitting very meager opportunities at tight end since T.J. Hockenson was traded.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.
What to Expect Betting on Giants
A bet on the Giants is a bet on an overachieving 7-2 football team that plays consistently strong defense. The Giants have benefited from great coaching on both sides of the ball this season. While its offense has made few mistakes this season, it’s been a very conservative, low-ceiling operation to this point. This is an opportunity for Daniel Jones to show a little ceiling against the Lions' league-worst defense. If you’re betting on New York, you are primarily betting on their defense putting up another strong effort against a Lions' offense whose once-strong skill position group has greatly reduced by injury and the T.J. Hockenson trade. While that’s the foundation of your bet, the Giants' offense is in position to exceed expectations this week. Your biggest concern as a Giants bettor is that New York is 7-1 in one score games this season. Detroit can lose by a field goal and still cover in this matchup.
What to Expect Betting on Lions
A bet on the Lions is a bet on Jared Goff in a cold weather game against a top-ten level front. Goff is a good quarterback in a clean pocket, but he’s a much different player when he’s under consistent duress, which is true for most pure pocket passers. If you’re betting on the Lions, you are betting on Detroit’s offensive line holding up against the Giants' pass rush. Detroit is giving up the most points in the league this season, but it's strung together its two best outings over the past four weeks. While you don’t want to bet on this Lions' defense, it has a chance to exceed expectations in this matchup against an ultra-conservative Giants' offense. Your biggest concern as a Lions bettor is that Daniel Jones shows some ceiling as a passer in this contest, while the Giants' front derails Jared Goff’s offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Saquon Barkley is a Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Brian Daboll is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Giants in most winner pools, but I might take Detroit as a differentiator option in one. I expect to be right with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I haven’t ruled out an ATS bet on the Giants in this matchup, but I’m still on the fence and will wait for a clearer weather report on Saturday.
Survivor Pool: The Giants are an aggressive selection in survivor pools this week. That said, they are getting a struggling indoor team in a cold weather game.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Has New York's 7-2 Start Pushed Expectations Too High?
