Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Philadelphia (5-0)
Opening Spread: Eagles -5.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (24.25), Cowboys (19.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -5.
- This line has moved to Eagles -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -6.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 42.5 points.
Eagles: IR: Edge Derek Barnett.
Cowboys: Questionable: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb.
The Eagles Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, as Philadelphia has a top-five offensive line, and Dallas has a top-five front. To this point in the season, Dallas has not yet faced a high-end offensive line. An injury-reduced Buccaneers line on opening day is the biggest challenge the Cowboys front has faced this season.
Philadelphia’s offensive line has not yet faced an elite pass rush, but they’ve held up against good ones in Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Washington. So I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw between two high-end units. I’m curious to see what Dallas’ front looks like against a high-end offensive line.
Betting Notes per TrueMedia
- The Eagles are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 12-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 13-11 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 11-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 12-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Eagles score 27 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Philadelphia is tenth in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts is seventh in the league in yards passing, second in yards per attempt, and 31st in air yards per attempt.
- Among quarterbacks, Hurts is third in yards rushing with 266.
- Hurts has taken the sixth most hurries, the 11th most pressures, and the 13th most sacks.
- Hurts has the 19th-best rating when pressured.
- Among running backs, Miles Sanders is fourth in the league in yards rushing and 51st in yards receiving.
- A.J. Brown is fifth in the league in yards receiving (436), 14th in receptions (28), eighth in target share (29.6%), and eighth in air yards share (41%).
- DeVonta Smith is 15th in the league in yards receiving (353), tied with Brown in receptions (28), 25th in target share (25%), and 26th in air yards share (31.7%).
- Among tight ends, Dallas Goedert is third in yards receiving (335), fifth in receptions (24), and seventh in target share (19.1%), with an 8.6% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Dallas Goedert is second among all pass catchers in yards after the catch with 272 yards.
- Goedert has played 176 snaps as an inline tight end, 30 on the perimeter and 86 in the slot.
- A.J. Brown has played 188 snaps on the perimeter and 88 out of the slot.
- DeVonta Smith is second in the league in snaps played on the perimeter with 268 (the leader, Terry McLaurin, already played his Week 6 game on Thursday night). Smith has played 57 snaps out of the slot.
- The Cowboys have allowed 14.4 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Dallas is seventh in net yards passing allowed per game and 18th in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Dallas is second in the league in sacks with 20 and tenth in interceptions with five.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 18th most yards rushing and the 17th most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 17th most yards receiving on the 14th most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Dallas has given up the seventh most PPR points to perimeter receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 29th most yards receiving on the seventh most receptions this season.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Cowboys’ offensive line was a liability on opening day against Tampa. Their turnaround has been remarkable since then, and it’s a big reason Cooper Rush’s offense has gone 4-0. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front with one of the very best interiors in the league. This is a strength vs. strength matchup with the Cowboys’ top-ten caliber offensive line squaring off with the Eagles’ top-five front.
Betting Notes per TrueMedia
- The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 1-4 on overs this season.
- Cooper Rush is 5-0 against the spread in his career.
- Cooper Rush is 1-4 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 134-103-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McCarthy is 131-109-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Cowboys score 18.6 points per game, good for 24th in the league.
- Dallas is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Cooper Rush is 33rd in the league in yards passing per game. Rush is 20th in yards per attempt and 18th in air yards per attempt.
- Among running,g backs, Ezekiel Elliot is 18th in the league in yards rushing, while teammate Tony Pollard is 25th. Pollard is 33rd at the position in yards receiving, while Elliot is 63rd.
- CeeDee Lamb leads the league in target share (35.2%), and he’s fifth in air yards share (42.8%). Lamb is 19th in the league in yards receiving (341), and he’s tied for 14th in receptions (28).
- Michael Gallup returned to action in Week 4. Gallup has eight total targets through his first two games.
- Noah Brown had 27 targets through the first four games but only had two last week.
- Dalton Schultz had nine targets on opening day. Since Cooper Rush has taken over the offense, Schultz has eight targets over three games with only two receptions and 18 yards receiving. Schultz missed a game due to injury during that span.
- Per TruMedia, CeeDee Lamb has played 171 snaps on the perimeter and 108 in the t.he slot.
- Michael Gallup has played 61 snaps on the perimeter and three in the slot.
- Noah Brown has played 125 snaps on the perimeter and 114 in the slot.
- Dalton Schultz has played 106 snaps as an inline tight end, 18 on the peimeter and 51 in the slot.
- The Eagles have allowed 17.6 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Philadelphia is fourth in net yards passing allowed per game and tenth in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Philadelphia is fifth in the league in sacks with 17 and sixth in interceptions with six.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 25th most yards rushing on the 25th most yards receiving this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the 22nd most yards receiving on the 10th most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Philadelphia has given up the 11th most PPR points to slot reis year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 21st most yards receiving on the 21st most receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Eagles vs. Cowboys
Last year was Nick Sirianni’s first as head coach of the Eagles, and it was Jalen Hurts first as opening-day day starter. I’m completely throwing out Dallas’s Week 18, 51-26 victory over the Eagles because Philadelphia didn’t play their starters in that contest. I’m not really putting a ton of stock in Dallas’s Week 3, 41-21 Monday night win against the Eagles, either. That was Hurts’ third game as the Eagles’ official starter and Sirianni’s third as head coach. That game also came before Sirianni’s extremely self-aware offensive adjustments that came two weeks later after their loss to the Chiefs. Additionally, the Eagles have a much better roster now than they had last year. Dallas is playing very well right now, but their roster is still down significant talent from last year’s.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on the best non-quarterback roster in the league. Philadelphia has a top-ten secondary, a top-ten front, a top-ten collection of pass catchers, and a top-five offensive line, and Miles Sanders is currently fourth in the league in yards rushing. Jalen Hurts is currently playing at an MVP-caliber level. If that continues, the Eagles have the best roster in the league, period. I was high on the Eagles coming into the season, so I don’t see their 5-0 record as a fluke, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they ended up being the top seed in the NFC, considering their schedule. The Eagles have been consistent through the first five games on both sides of the ball, but I don’t think they’ve played a ceiling game yet. Sunday Night Football against rival Dallas is more of a pressure spot than Monday Night Football against the Vikings was back in Week 2. Your biggest concern with an Eagles bet is that Philadelphia presses and plays inconsistent football for the first time this year.
A bet on Dallas in its current form is a bet on the Cowboys’ defense continuing to win games. Cooper Rush has been great in relief duty, and so has the Cowboys’ offensive line and coaching staff. But Dallas has not breached 25 points this season, and Rush has topped out at 235 yards passing in a game so far. Rush threw for 102 yards passing in the Cowboys’ upset win over the Rams last week. Rush has played excellent, turnover-free football, and he orchestrated a game-winning drive against the Bengals, but let’s not treat Rush as someone that’s going out and shredding defenses. He’s been an efficient game manager that’s thrown four touchdown passes with a 61% completion percentage over four-and-a-half games. The clearest path to a Cowboys win or cover is that Jalen Hurts plays his most inconsistent game of the year against the Cowboys’ high-performing defense, while Rush continues to be rock solid in relief duty.
Unless Hurts flops in this contest, this seems like the game that the Cowboys will miss Dak Prescott.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Jaleh Hurts is an MVP contender. Nick Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking the Eagles in winner pools, and I’ll be higher than the consensus on them in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I will take the Eagles in one of my ATS tournament entries at a value.
Survivor Pool: If you can take the Rams or Buccaneers this week, that’s probably the direction I’d go in survivor pools. That said, I don’t think the Eagles are a cross-off in that format.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10