Fantasy
6/27/23
5 min read
Broncos RB Samaje Perine Is Ultimate Dynasty Buy
Investing in cheap running backs is one of the most profitable strategies in dynasty fantasy football.
Dontrell Hilliard, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Cordarrelle Patterson all had more than 20 fantasy points in Week 1 last season. Many running backs are worth closer to the waiver wire than they are to a second-round rookie pick, yet they can still have productive fantasy weeks when injuries hit. This creates value spikes where that running back is now worth closer to that second-round rookie pick than before.
Ideally, we want running backs who project for early fantasy spike weeks and, in turn, early dynasty value spikes. This leads us to new Denver Broncos running back Samaje Perine.
Why You Want Samaje Perine
Perine’s 2022 Season
In 2022, Perine’s sixth season in the NFL, he posted a career-high points per game (PPG) of 8.9. That includes three games of more than 18 fantasy points scored. We saw career highs through his receiving profile, where he had an 8.4 percent target share, 0.47 yards per team pass attempt and 5.7 receiving fantasy PPG out of the backfield.
While this isn't a running back you should value highly, Perine is generously worth a third-round rookie pick, a cost simply too good. To see where we have him ranked in dynasty, you can visit our tiered dynasty rankings.
There are two things we're looking for when investing in Perine's profile. The first is the high-leverage weeks he posted in 2022. The other is the chance to flip him for a future second-round rookie pick. Effectively, we want to turn a third-round rookie value into a second-round rookie pick. These two goals coincide, as the high-leverage weeks cause the value spikes needed to eventually flip for a higher pick value.
2023 Outlook
Why do we believe Perine has a high chance of netting you that goal? Aside from seeing the adequacy and spike weeks the prior season, he finds himself in a friendly team situation. Yes, the Broncos' offense was tough to watch for most of last season. However, we are playing fantasy football, and Latavius Murray still scored more than 17 fantasy points in three of 12 games. Again, we’re talking about Latavius Murray.
Now Sean Payton comes to town, and there’s plenty of hope Russell Wilson goes back to making the offense efficient. For reference, Wilson held a more than six percent touchdown rate in his previous five seasons before a putrid 3.3 percent last season.
Not only should we expect positive regression because of this, but one of the NFL's best offensive minds is now running the offense. Not a head coach who got fired in his debut season before it was even over in Nathaniel Hackett.
But Javonte Williams is there, so why are you buying Perine? A few reasons. First, while Joe Mixon was inactive in two of the games where Perine went over 18 fantasy points, that shouldn’t be a knock on Perine. If anything, it shows when Perine was thrust into a high-end opportunity, he produced.
His other game with more than 18 fantasy points came with Mixon active. When talking about Mixon, we’re talking about a running back who has never seen less than a 50 percent carry percentage in his NFL career, going for more than 60 percent last season.
Williams is coming off a season-ending knee injury, and he tore more than just his ACL. The return to productivity isn’t immediately there. Think of J.K. Dobbins’ disappointing 2022 season for the range of outcomes of a back in their first year returning from this type of injury.
Breece Hall and Javonte Williams couldn't be further away from each other on the spectrum of 2023 expectations.
* = complicated procedure
most bounce back in year 2 came after a complicated surgery. Breece's wasn't complicated. J-Will's is. pic.twitter.com/pFw2MYkc99— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) May 3, 2023
Even if Williams was fully healthy, we’re talking about a running back that hasn’t held greater than a 50 percent carry percentage since high school. You read that right. Despite playing with Michael Carter in college and Melvin Gordon during his rookie season, he never showed the ability to handle a large rushing workload.
If you want the raw production numbers, Williams has averaged 12 carries and 19 receiving yards per game in his first two NFL seasons. This leaves significant volume for another back — namely Perine — to contribute.
We can also look at that early season schedule to see favorable fantasy matchups for Perine while Williams is likely still rehabbing. Two of the Broncos’ first four games are against the Raiders and Bears, who allowed top-5 fantasy production to running backs in 2022.
Perine is also nearly 20 pounds heavier than Williams, so if you can't offload him before Williams returns, there’s still a reasonable chance Perine is stealing high-value goal-line touches when both are healthy.
Buy Now, Flip Later
It’s not as if we’re shouting from the rooftops you should expect Perine to outscore Williams. But we are shouting that you can invest a late third-round rookie pick into a guy with the capabilities to produce when given an opportunity in a good offense. Also, he doesn’t have a back that will hog all the carries in front of him — let alone a healthy one.
You have an awesome opportunity to buy a low-cost stock that is primed to climb. It's an opportunity you should take advantage of, where you can enjoy starting running back production for a month and still net a similar, if not better, return than what you originally paid.
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