Josh Larky gives his initial fantasy football reaction to Samaje Perine agreeing to a two-year, $7.5 million deal with the Denver Broncos on Tuesday.
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Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.
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Chiefs
Quez Watkins
Deebo Samuel
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | vs CIN | $7,600 | $8,500 | 24.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | vs SF | $7,200 | $9,200 | 24.25 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | @ KC | $6,800 | $8,300 | 23.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | @ PHI | $8,000 | $9,000 | 22.25 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | @ KC | $6,500 | $8,100 | 23.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | vs CIN | $5,400 | $6,500 | 24.5 |
| Eli Mitchell | RB | SF | @ PHI | $4,900 | $5,600 | 22.25 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | @ KC | $4,500 | $5,300 | 23.5 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | @ KC | $7,600 | $8,600 | 23.5 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | vs SF | $7,000 | $8,000 | 24.25 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | vs SF | $6,800 | $7,700 | 24.25 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | @ PHI | $5,700 | $7,000 | 22.25 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | @ KC | $5,400 | $6,700 | 23.5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | vs CIN | $4,700 | $6,100 | 24.5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | @ PHI | $4,400 | $6,000 | 22.25 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | @ KC | $3,800 | $5,300 | 23.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | vs CIN | $3,700 | $5,600 | 24.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | vs CIN | $3,600 | $5,100 | 24.5 |
| Quez Watkins | WR | PHI | vs SF | $3,100 | $4,800 | 24.25 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs CIN | $7,800 | $8,500 | 24.5 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | @ PHI | $5,200 | $6,800 | 22.25 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | vs SF | $4,100 | $6,400 | 24.25 |
| 49ers | DST | SF | @ PHI | $3,000 | $4,100 | 24.25 |
| Eagles | DST | PHI | vs SF | $2,800 | $4,600 | 22.25 |
| Chiefs | DST | KC | vs CIN | $2,500 | $4,200 | 23.5 |
| Bengals | DST | CIN | @ KC | $2,300 | $4,000 | 24.5 |
Opening Spread: Bills -4
Opening Game Total: 50
Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Bengals (23)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of snow
Bills: Questionable: DT DaQuan Jones, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Poyer
Bengals: Out: RT La’el Collins. Questionable: LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa
I have the Bills’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. As our Maxx Forde recently pointed out, Josh Allen’s skillset is an asset for the Bills’ offensive line in both phases. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is very strong in the run game. The Bills’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in pass protection, while the Bengals’ defensive front has a moderate advantage in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
Barring a miracle, the Bengals will be down both their opening-day offensive tackles and their right guard. At full strength, the Bengals’ offensive line worked its way up to a league-average unit, but with these injuries, they are a below-average group entering this contest. At full strength, the Bills have a borderline top-five defensive front. Without Von Miller and A.J. Epenesa, the Bills have more of a league-average defensive front. Given all of the injuries in this trench matchup, Buffalo has a moderate to significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
The Week 17 matchup between these two teams was canceled due to Damar Hamlin’s health crisis. Including last week’s victory over Miami, the Bills have won their last eight games. Including last week’s win over the Ravens, Cincinnati has won its last nine games.
I’d argue that no team relies more on their quarterback than the Bills on Josh Allen. Outside of Stefon Diggs, Allen’s supporting cast on offense is very average. Like with any Bills bet, you must build that bet around Allen carrying this offense where they at least meet expectations.
The most apparent matchup advantage that the Bills have in this contest is their injury-reduced defensive front against the Bengals injury-ravaged offensive line. If the Bills are to win by enough distance to cover this now -5.5 spread, Buffalo’s ability to exploit Cincinnati’s injured offensive line is the clearest path to that outcome. That’s still possible without Von Miller, but it’s much less of a slam dunk than if Miller was available. If Joe Burrow spends most of his Sunday in a muddy pocket, that will make the tall task of mitigating the Bengals’ elite skill group far more manageable for the Bills.
You have two core concerns as a Bills bettor. The first is that Joe Burrow plays well despite the limitations of his injured offensive line. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last season with a below-average offensive line, so that outcome is certainly possible. The second is that Buffalo’s offense is one-dimensional, where that group effectively goes as far as Josh Allen takes it. Surviving a few turnovers against Skylar Thompson’s Dolphins is not the same circumstance as giving Joe Burrow a few more drives. If Buffalo is going to win this game, and cover, Allen will need to limit his turnovers.
Any Bengals bet is built around Joe Burrow and his elite skill group. The Bengals have shown over the last two years they can beat anyone. Entering this game, however, they will almost certainly be down both offensive tackles and their right guard. One of my longstanding football tenants is that you can play effective offense with one liability at offensive tackle, but it becomes much more problematic when you have two. You can game plan around one unreliable offensive tackle because you can give them consistent help in various ways. You can’t really do that with two. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl against the Buccaneers a few years ago is a primary example of what can happen to an elite offense when it loses both of its offensive tackles. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow’s offense is significantly hampered by their injury-reduced offensive line.
No lead is safe when Josh Allen is the opposing quarterback. Buffalo is among the most pass-centric teams in the league, which devalues the Bengals’ high-performing run defense to a degree. We can reasonably expect Cincinnati to focus its game plan on Stefon Diggs, forcing Allen to beat it with his role players. The best-case scenario for Cincinnati is limiting Diggs while forcing a couple of turnovers.
Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow spends this contest under siege behind Cincinnati’s injury-reduced offensive line. Your second-biggest concern is that Josh Allen’s turnover issues disappear and the Bills’ offense plays one of its cleanest games of the season. If both of those conditions happen, that’s the primary path to the Bills winning this game with some distance.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 20
TS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Opening Spread: Bengals -6.5
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (25) Ravens (18.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Bengals: Out: RG Alex Cappa, RT La’el Collins. Questionable: WR Tee Higgins, CB Cam Taylor-Britt
Ravens: Questionable: QB Lamar Jackson, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Gus Edwards, CB Marcus Peters, CB Marlon Humphrey.
The Bengals’ offensive line was a below-average unit early in the year that gradually turned into a rock-solid, league-average unit. However, injuries at right guard and right tackle have pushed this group back into below-average territory. I have the Ravens’ defensive front tiered toward the back end of league average. From a macro sense, the Ravens’ defensive front has a mild advantage in the trenches, but the Bengals’ injury-reduced offensive line will be put to the test when the Ravens bring pressure.
I have the Ravens tiered as a top-10 offensive line. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is a top-10 unit against the run. The Ravens’ offensive line has a significant advantage in pass protection, but this trench matchup is more of a draw in the run game.
In Week 5, the Ravens beat the Bengals 19-17 on Sunday night in Baltimore. The Bengals beat the Ravens’ reserve offense, but Baltimore’s defensive starters, 27-16 in the regular season finale last week. The Bengals finished the season with eight straight wins. The injury-reduced Ravens limped into the playoffs, going 4-4 since their Week 10 bye.
Baltimore slipped by Carolina, Denver, Pittsburgh and Atlanta for those four wins in low-scoring, highly competitive games. Jackson hasn’t played since Dec. 4 against the Broncos. Jackson only threw four passes against the Broncos, which means Baltimore went 3-3 without Jackson to close the season.
Any bet on the Bengals is built around Burrow and his dynamic skill group. If you just glance at the box score of last week’s game, you’d think Cincinnati hung 27 points on the Ravens’ starting defense. That wasn’t the case. The Bengals forced four turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown last week. If you’re betting on the Bengals, you are betting on their offense to have a better performance this week than last week.
The great mystery of this game is the Ravens could conceivably start one of three quarterbacks. All signs are pointing toward Jackson missing being out. Will it be Huntley or Brown this week? If Cincinnati gets Brown again, the Bengals’ defense could enjoy another multi-turnover day. If Huntley gets the start, the Ravens’ offense is a more stable unit. My primary concern as a Bengals bettor is Cincinnati’s offense comes in just under their 25-point team total, while Huntley’s Ravens keep the game relatively competitive.
We should expect Jackson to miss this contest given the reports and line movement related to this game. Assuming Jackson remains sidelined, this game is primarily on the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore played their defensive starters last week, and they played well despite Baltimore’s offense turning the ball over four times. Baltimore held the Bengals to 17 points earlier in the year as well. The Ravens’ defense’s best path to exceeding expectations is their secondary holding up when they blitz the right side of the Bengals’ injury-ravaged offensive line. If Baltimore can consistently pressure Burrow, they can keep this game close.
While the requirement of limiting Burrow’s offense is a concern, your biggest worry as a Ravens’ bettor is related to their offense. The Ravens haven’t breached 20 points since Week 12, which is the last full game Jackson played. A spike game out of Huntley’s offense isn’t entirely off the table, but that is an outlier outcome we shouldn’t count on. What you can build a Ravens bet around is a strong defensive effort while Huntley’s offense plays a turnover-free game that keeps a cover within striking distance. The worst-case scenario for Baltimore is Burrow’s offense comes out hot and whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens simply can’t keep up.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24 Ravens 16
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 57-40
