NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bills vs. Bengals

NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bills vs. Bengals
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4)  Opening Spread: Bengals +1.5 Opening Game Total: 49.5 Opening Team Totals: Bengals (24) Bills (25.5) Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns The Line Report This line opened as Bengals +1.5 This line remains at +1.5 DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals +.5 Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals +1 […]

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Fantasy Football NFL Week 14: Five Things We Learned

Fantasy Football NFL Week 14: Five Things We Learned
Welcome to Five Things We Learned. Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated.  No. 1: Bengals Backfield Roles, Mixon Healthy The Cincinnati Bengals returned starting running back Joe Mixon (concussion) after a two-game […]

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To Fade or Not to Fade: Week 14 NFL Betting Narratives

To Fade or Not to Fade: Week 14 NFL Betting Narratives
Every week, I’ll dissect various narratives affecting NFL betting lines. This is vital considering most bettors digest these same narratives weekly. The betting public is larger than ever. While that’s exciting, it also means sportsbooks can lure and fool action junkies into taking a lousy wager based on repeated narratives purported by the media. My […]

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High-Value Touch Report: NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rushing, Receiving Data

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Welcome back to the Week 13 installment of the high-value touch report. I examine the rushing and receiving data in the red zone, goal-to-go and third/fourth down situations. Fantasy football is humbling, and sometimes the most logical and data-focused analysis doesn’t pan out. Sometimes touchdown regression might finally happen for Jamaal Williams, and the usage […]

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High-Value Touch Report: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rushing, Receiving Data

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Welcome back to the Week 11 installment of the high-value touch report. I examine the rushing and receiving data in the red zone, goal-to-go and third/fourth down situations. Fantasy football is humbling, and sometimes the most logical and data-focused analysis doesn’t pan out. Or the one-game sample turns into a trend we might have missed.  […]

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Fantasy Football NFL Week 11: Five Things We Learned

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Welcome to Five Things We Learned! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated.  No. 1: Buy Low in Tennessee, Part 1 Tennessee Titans rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks returned from a four-week absence […]

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Fantasy

Fantasy Football Week 12: Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More

The fantasy football playoffs are suddenly just a few short weeks away. So you’ll need to be extra proactive in picking up players off of waivers – for Week 12 and beyond.

And, of course, as the waiver wire gets ever so thinner, I’ll be adding additional info, such as drops and stashes. Consider it an early holiday gift!

As always, this waivers column is geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

Quarterbacks

You can officially drop Russell Wilson.

  • Rostered in 64.9% of leagues.
  • I said last week you can drop Wilson unless you’re desperate for a quarterback to stream.
  • Wilson rewarded those poor souls with 10.7 fantasy points.
  • It doesn’t matter who Denver plays. Cut Wilson if you haven’t already.
  • That’s all you need to know about one of the season’s biggest disappointments.

It’s past time to stash Deshaun Watson.

  • Rostered in 40% of leagues.
  • There are almost no inspiring quarterbacks left on waivers.
  • Watson began practicing last week and is set to return in Week 13.
  • He gets a good offensive line, a good backfield and a good WR1 in Amari Cooper.
  • While Watson could be rusty, his upside in fantasy is too great to ignore.
  • Although, Watson’s next two opponents are top-eight in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks: Houston and Cincinnati.
  • He’s still a must-add for any team with a roster spot to fill.

Running Backs

Samaje Perine is a top pickup, but be cautious.

  • Rostered in 4.3% of leagues.
  • Perine filled in for Joe Mixon, who left in the first half with a concussion.
  • He scored 30.2 fantasy points, including three touchdowns on four targets.
  • Perine only ran for 30 rushing yards on 11 carries.
  • Even if Mixon is available for Week 12, Perine’s upside warrants a roster spot.
  • The Bengals face the Titans in Tennessee, who has allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs.
  • They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
  • So Perine isn’t a must-start, but the sheer volatility of the running back position in fantasy could vault Perine into RB2 status.
  • And that, again, assumes Mixon doesn’t play.

Latavius Murray is the top running back on waivers.

  • Rostered in 28.4% of leagues.
  • In Week 12, Murray had a season-high—and game-high—17 carries for 49 rushing yards and a touchdown.
  • He also caught all four targets for 23 yards.
  • Murray ran just four fewer routes than Melvin Gordon.
  • Denver cut Melvin Gordon Monday.
  • Chase Edmonds will miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury.
  • The Broncos face the Panthers in Week 12, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Don’t cut Tyler Allgeier yet.

  • Rostered in 49.2% of leagues.
  • With Cordarrelle Patterson back in the rotation, Allgeier has 3.3 and 7.4 fantasy points in the last two games, respectively.
  • He had just eight carries in each game, too.
  • Still, Allgeier and Patterson each saw 8+ carries and ran 10 routes.
  • They also saw a nearly identical snap count and target share.
  • Just don’t start Allgeier, especially in Week 12.
  • The Falcons face the Commanders, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

But you can probably cut Darrell Henderson.

Note: Henderson was waived Tuesday, so you can definitely cut him.

  • Rostered in 57.9% of leagues.
  • The Rams “starting” running back has hit 10 fantasy points just once since Week 6.
  • That one game? Week 10, when Henderson scored on six carries and 21 rushing yards.
  • I say “starting” because Henderson played just four snaps after starting in Week 11.
  • Cam Akers was Los Angeles’ primary back, with Kyren Williams as the main receiving back.
  • The Rams offense has failed to score 20+ points since Week 6.
  • Henderson is a bad running back in a bad situation on a bad offense.

Don’t expect much from any Rams running back.

  • Cam Akers is rostered in 35.4% of leagues.
  • Kyren Williams is rostered in 19.8% of leagues.
  • The Rams’ rushing offense has been horrendous.

  • In the last two games, Akers has scored 2.2 and 6.1 fantasy points, respectively.
  • In his only two full games–both coming in the last two weeks–Williams has scored 6.9 and 5.4 fantasy points, respectively.
  • Akers is the early-down back, while Williams is the passing back.
  • We haven’t seen enough from either running back to warrant a roster spot.

James Cook is simply just Devin Singletary’s handcuff.

  • Rostered in 18.9% of leagues.
  • Cook scored 8.6 fantasy points on 11 carries.
  • He ran for 86 rushing yards. 
  • He was targeted twice but had no receptions.
  • The Bills were playing from ahead most of the game.
  • Do not expect much from Cook as long as Singletary plays.

Wide Receivers

If you didn’t listen last week, pick up Donovan Peoples-Jones and Darius Slayton immediately.

  • Both are rostered in fewer than 42% of leagues.
  • Not to toot my own horn again, but I also said both could be in your Week 11 lineups.
  • Peoples-Jones scored 17.1 fantasy points and Slayton scored 13.6.
  • Over the last four games, Peoples-Jones is averaging 13.6 fantasy points and Slayton is averaging 14.6.
  • They’re worth the waiver capital if they’re still somehow available.

Treylon Burks could be here to stay.

  • Rostered in 20.9% of leagues.
  • Burks scored 18.1 fantasy points in his second game back from a six-week injury hiatus.
  • He led the Titans with eight targets, which led to 111 receiving yards and no touchdowns.
  • Green Bay had previously held opposing fantasy wide receivers to the ninth-fewest fantasy points.
  • Tennessee had previously averaged the third-fewest pass attempts per game with 24.1. 
  • Ryan Tannehill was pretty sharp; he went 22-for-27 for 333 passing yards and two scores.
  • Don’t expect this type of performance due to Tennessee’s affinity for running the ball.
  • Still, the door is wide open for Burks to emerge as a reliable WR1 for the Titans.

Skyy Moore’s upside makes him worth a roster spot, again.

  • Rostered in 11.2% of leagues.
  • Moore was actually the Chiefs’ WR3 in usage behind Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
  • He still led all Kansas City wide receivers with six targets and 11.3 fantasy points.
    Kadarius Toney left the game with a hamstring injury.
  • With JuJu Smith-Schuster slated to return in Week 12, don’t expect anything great from Moore.
  • If you add him, you’re banking on Moore solidifying himself as Kanas City’s second-best passing option.

Demarcus Robinson is a fine waiver pickup.

  • Rostered in 2.3% of leagues.
  • Robinson balled out in Week 12 with 21.8 fantasy points.
  • He caught all nine of his targets for 128 receiving yards.
  • He and Mark Andrews were the only Ravens to see more than four targets.
  • Robinson and Devin Duvernay were far and away Baltimore’s top two wide receivers, tho Duvernay had a few more snaps and routes.
  • Excluding a Week 13 matchup against Denver, Baltimore’s next six opponents have allowed the sixth-most or more fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • That includes Jacksonville in Week 12, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
  • The Ravens still rank in the bottom six of pass attempts, but this was Robinson’s second game in his last three with 8+ targets.
  • He can become a steady flex play. 

Kendall Hinton doesn’t offer much upside.

  • Rostered in 0.6% of leagues.
  • Hinton had 10.2 fantasy points in Week 10 and 8.7 fantasy points in Week 11.
  • He was Denver’s WR2… because only two Broncos wide receivers were targeted: Hinton and Courtland Sutton.
  • Russell Wilson only threw 31 times.
  • The Raiders had previously allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • The Broncos face the Panthers next week, who have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • He’s a good pickup if you need 8-10 fantasy points.
  • Just don’t expect a league-winning performance, even if Sutton gets injured.

Greg Dortch is rosterable… if Rondale Moore misses time.

  • Rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Moore left Monday night’s game with a groin injury.
  • Dortch stepped in and caught nine of his ten targets for 103 yards.
  • Remember, Dortch scored 13+ fantasy points in the first three weeks when Moore and Hopkins weren’t playing.
  • He saw nearly identical usage to DeAndre Hopkins, and was clearly Arizona’s WR2.
  • Marquise Brown is slated to come back in Week 12 and could eat into Dortch’s workload.
  • Don’t spend too much waiver capital on Dortch.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson is the hottest target on waivers.

  • Rostered in 23.6% of leagues.
  • Johnson has 12+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
  • He’s scored at least once in each of those games.
  • He’s also seen 4+ targets or 40+ receiving yards in three of those four games.
  • Four of his touchdowns have come inside the red zone.
  • Johnson led all Saints in routes run in Week 11.
  • The Rams had previously allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • New Orleans plays San Francisco in Week 12, who have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • Clearly, Johnson is touchdown-dependent, so there’s some risk with starting him.
  • With how poorly most tight ends are playing, you may need to buy into Johnson’s upside.

Austin Hooper is creeping into late-season TE1 territory.

  • Rostered in 9.1% of leagues.
  • That says more about the state of the tight end position than Hooper’s skillset.
  • He scored a whopping 19.6 fantasy points, including two touchdowns on four targets.
  • Hooper also scored 9.1 fantasy points in Week 10 on seven targets.
  • The Titans face the Bengals in Week 12, who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
  • Hooper isn’t a must-start, but his usage is becoming something of value.
  • One more good week from him, and he could be firmly in the low-end TE1 discussion.
  • With the playoffs looming, it may be wise to buy Hooper early.

Logan Thomas doesn’t offer much fantasy value, yet.

  • Rostered in 6.3% of leagues.
  • Thomas scored 11.5 fantasy points in Week 11.
  • He caught five of his six targets for 65 receiving yards.
  • It’s the first time since before his Week 4 injury that Thomas saw six targets.
  • He’s scored double-digit fantasy points just twice in his eight games played.
  • However, Thomas was essentially just as involved as Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson.
  • All four players saw 40+ snaps and ran 19+ routes.
  • Thomas and McLaurin led the Commanders with six targets.
  • It’s just one game, but if Thomas stays this involved, he can become a low-end TE1.
  • He has moderately easy upcoming matchups against the Giants and Falcons.
  • Washington has a bye in Week 14.
  • He’s worth a stash if you have a roster spot to spare.

There is no need to roster Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin nor Robert Tonyan anymore.

  • Henry and Conklin are rostered in about 27% of leagues.
  • Tonyan is rostered in 40.4% of leagues.
  • Henry has one game of 4+ fantasy points since Week 6.
  • Conklin has one game of 7+ fantasy points since Week 5.
  • Tonyan has one game of 7+ fantasy points since Week 6.
  • The three tight ends have a combined 22.9 points over their last two games.
  • That’s an average of 3.8 fantasy points per game.
  • And that includes Henry’s 9-point game in Week 9.
  • Seriously, they haven’t been good.
  • You’re way better off with Juwan Johnson or Logan Thomas.

 

WATCH MORE: Week 11 Fantasy Recap 

 

Video

Fantasy’s Top Week 4 Waiver Wire Pickups

Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds run through all the potential players you can add on the waiver wire for Week 4, and whether you should target them or let them sit in free agency.

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