Betting
10/28/22
8 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Commanders vs. Colts
Washington Commanders (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)
Opening Spread: Colts -4
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Colts (22.75), Commanders (18.75)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Colts -4.
- This line has moved down to Colts -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Colts -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Colts -3.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total has moved to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Colts: Out: QB Matt Ryan; Questionable: Edge Kwity Paye, LB Shaquille Leonard.
Commanders: IR: QB Carson Wentz, C Chase Roullier, OL Wes Schweitzer, Edge Chase Young; Questionable: WR Jahan Dotson, TE Logan Thomas, RG Saahdiq Charles, LB Cole Holcomb.
The Colts Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Colts offensive line has been one of the more disappointing position groups this season. They have not been able to effectively replace retired left tackle Anthony Castonzo. The Colts offensive line is a fringe below average unit. Washington’s front four is a fringe top-ten caliber unit at full strength, but they have been without Edge Chase Young all season. Washington has one of the best interior duos in the sport, giving them a solid, middle-of-the-pack front seven in Young’s absence. Washington has a slight macro edge in the trenches in this matchup, while their interior duo is a difficult matchup for any offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 1-6 on overs this season.
- Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger is making his first NFL start.
- Frank Reich is 36-33-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Reich is 35-37 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Colts Offense
- The Colts are scoring 16.1 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Indianapolis is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Ehlinger is making his first start in the NFL this week.
- Ehlinger was the No. 218 pick in last year’s draft.
- I was not crazy about Ehlinger as a passer while he was playing college football at Texas. However, he is far more mobile than Matt Ryan and that could help out the Colts struggling offensive line.
- Per the Edge, in his return to action last week, Jonathan Taylor had ten carries and eight targets in a negative game script against the Titans.
- Michael Pittman Jr. leads the Colts with a 24% target share and he’s second on the team with a 27.4% air yards share.
- Alec Pierce leads the team with a 27.9% air yards share. Pierce has a 13% target share.
- Parris Campbell has had double-digit targets in back-to-back games.
- Expect the Colts passing attack to be different under Ehlinger.
- Per TruMedia, Parris Campbell is second in the league in snaps played in the slot with 311. Campbell has played 102 snaps on the perimeter this year.
- Michael Pittman has played 331 snaps on the perimeter and 88 in the slot.
- Alec Pierce has played 247 snaps on the perimeter and 14 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the 18th most yards rushing per game and the 19th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Washington has given up the eighth most yards receiving to wide receivers this season.
- Washington has given up the fifth most PPR points to slot receivers this year.
- The Commanders have allowed the fourth fewest yards receiving to tight ends this season.
The Commanders Offense vs. Colts Defense
Washington has a slightly below average offensive line that has been without their starting center for weeks. The Colts front four has underachieved this season, to the point that they are a fringe below average group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 3-4 on overs this season.
- Taylor Heinicke is 9-16 against the spread in his career.
- Taylor Heinicke is 9-16 on overs in his career.
- Ron Rivera is 92-84-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Ron Rivera is 90-88-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 17.9 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Washington is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Brian Robinson has been the Commanders primary ball carrier since his return to action three weeks ago. Antonio Gibson has been the secondary ball carrier for Washington since that shift, Gibson has eaten into J.D. McKissic’s pass-centric role.
- Curtis Samuel leads Washington with a 22.2% target share, but he’s third on the team with a 15.5% air yards share.
- Terry McLaurin leads the team in air yards share (31.2%) and he’s second on the team in target share (17.5%).
- If Logan Thomas returns to action, he has a 12% target share and a 12.6% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Logan Thomas has played 68 snaps as an inline tight end, 112 in the slot, and 14 on the perimeter.
Colts Defense
- The Colts have allowed 20 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the ninth most yards rushing per game and the sixth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 12th most yards receiving to tight ends this season.
- The Colts have allowed the eighth most PPR points to inline tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Colts vs. Commanders
A bet on the Colts is a bet on Ehlinger in his debut as a starting quarterback. I’m stunned that the Colts have said they are going with Ehlinger the rest of the season. In a best-case scenario, Ehlinger’s mobility helps the Colts struggling offensive line and that stylistic change gives Indianapolis a spark of sorts on offense. In a worst-case scenario Ehlinger throws multiple interceptions while the Colts offense struggles throughout the day. We can reasonably expect the Colts to balance running plays with short, safe passes mixed with the occasional shot play in neutral and positive game scripts. If you’re going to bet on the Colts in this spot, you’re also betting on the defense to at least meet expectations against a volatile Washington offense. A bet on the Colts can also be a direct bet against Taylor Heinicke, who has thrown an interception in 12 of his last 17 games.
A bet on the Commanders starts as a direct bet against Ehlinger in his first start as an NFL quarterback. The NFC playoff race is a mess, and Washington has crawled their way back into the mix with victories over the Bears and Packers over the last two weeks. While Washington can be maddeningly inconsistent, they are a motivated team in the thick of the early Wild Card race. Washington has two strong position groups: their wide receivers and front four. If you’re betting on the Commanders in any game, you are betting on at least one of those groups to exceed expectations.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I expect to get a little exposure to both teams in winner pools. I’ll also be ranking whoever I take in this game as close to the bottom as I can in my confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I bet on Washington early in the week with the expectation that the line would move close to three points. I was not expecting Ehlinger to be named the starter at that juncture. Long-term I envision myself betting against Ehlinger in one way or another multiple times this season. In this matchup I could see this game being close unless Ehlinger turns the ball over multiple times, which is something that the Colts coaching staff is likely going to go out of their way to limit.
Survivor Pool: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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