Betting
9/19/22
4 min read
Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets
Below, you'll find my favorite Monday Night Football player prop bets.
Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen Anytime TD Scorer (+195 on FanDuel)
Since Kirk Cousins joined the Vikings in 2018, Thielen has scored a touchdown in 58% of his games. +195 implies a 34% chance of it happening tonight. There is massive value here, and despite a disappointing Week 1 performance, Thielen did see a red zone target, courtesy of our flagship tool, The Edge.
Treylon Burks
Treylon Burks Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Caesars)
Treylon Burks Anytime TD Scorer (+450 on FanDuel)
Treylon Burks 50+ Receiving Yards (+265), 60+ Receiving Yards (+390), 70+ Receiving Yards (+700), all at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Burks ran only 13 routes in Week 1 but parlayed that usage into 5 targets, catching 3 passes for 55 yards. One of those targets came in the end zone. I like to think his routes increase in Week 2, as he's a first-round rookie who flashed in Week 1. Also, the game script should favor the Titans playing catch-up, as they are 9.5-point underdogs against Buffalo.
Burks is explosive and can break a long play at any point. Taking Burks' TD prop is similar to how I took Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson longshot anytime TDs yesterday. I want to bet on rookies with game-breaking ability before the books catch up.
@jlarkytiktoks Fantasy WR primed for TAKEOFF 🛫 ✈️ #fantasyfootball #widereceiver #fyp #rookie
K.J. Osborn
K.J. Osborn Anytime TD Scorer (+390 on FanDuel)
Osborn scored in 41% of his games played in 2021. In Week 1 of 2022, Osborn ran 28 routes, while Justin Jefferson and Thielen each ran 33 routes. He is the clear third pass-game option, and +390 implies Osborn will score once every five games (20%). This is substantial value for what should be a high-scoring affair.
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry 125+ Rushing Yards (+360 on FanDuel)
Since 2019, Henry has recorded more than 125 yards rushing 34% of the time, and +360 is 22% implied odds. His games going over 125 rushing yards are roughly 50% higher than the implied odds. I believe that's putting too much stock into Buffalo's run defense and game script. The Titans have often continued to rely on Henry even when trailing, so I like this bet purely from a numbers perspective.
Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper Anytime TD Scorer (+500 on FanDuel)
Hooper has scored a TD in 30% of his games since 2019. +500 gives him just under a 17% chance of scoring in this contest. Hooper ran 22 routes in Week 1, only four routes below Robert Woods, who led the team with 26. The Titans will need to be aggressive in the red zone to keep this game competitive, and we just saw Tyler Higbee rack up 11 targets against the Bills in Week 1.
DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith Over 3.5 Receptions (+124 on FanDuel)
DeVonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Smith reached 4 receptions in 50% of his games last season. A.J. Brown is now in town, but I do not think the Eagles have any intention of phasing Smith out of the game plan. Smith ran 41 routes to Brown's 40 in Week 1, and while Smith had no catches on his 4 targets, WRs as a whole are volatile week to week. I'm betting on a Smith bounceback in Week 2.
As a rookie, Smith reached 70+ receiving yards in 28% of his games, and +320 implies a 24% chance of it happening. While Brown is now an Eagle, I believe Jalen Hurts is a better passer, and this is a better passing offense overall compared to last season. Additionally, Smith is now in Year 2, so he should be more adjusted to the NFL game.
Reminder, none of these Monday Night Football player prop bets are guaranteed to hit, nor is there any guarantee that you'll make money tonight. Based on the odds, these types of bets *should* lead to long-term profitability, but some natural peaks and valleys will occur on a day-to-day basis.
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