Betting
10/14/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 6: Patriots vs. Browns
New England Patriots (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Opening Spread: Browns -3.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Team Totals: Browns (22.75), Patriots (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Browns -3.
- This line has moved to Browns -2.5 as of Thursday evening.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Browns -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Browns -2.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 as of Thursday evening.
Notable Injuries
Browns: IR: Edge Chase Winovich, LB Deion Jones, CB Greedy Williams. Questionable: LG Joel Bitonio, Edge Myles Garrett, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, DT Taven Bryan, CB Denzel Ward.
Patriots: Questionable: QB Mac Jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor, C David Andrews, DL Lawrence Guy, LB Raekwon McMillan, LB Josh Uche, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Jalen Mills.
The Browns Offense vs. the Patriots Defense
Patriots Edge Matthew Judon is a premium pass rusher, but the Patriots front is a below-average unit. The Browns have a top-five offensive line. Cleveland's offense has an edge in the trenches in this matchup, although Judon is a matchup issue against virtually any opponent.
Betting Notes
- The Browns are 2-3 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 5-0 on overs this season.
- Jacoby Brissett is 21-19-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jacoby Brissett is 22-20 on overs in his career.
- Kevin Stefanski is 15-23 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin Stefanski is 21-17 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Browns Offense
- The Browns are scoring 26.6 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
- Cleveland is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb leads the league in yards rushing, while teammate Kareem Hunt is 26th among running backs in yards rushing. Both Chubb and Hunt are outside the top twenty in yards receiving.
- Amari Cooper is 17th in the league in target share (27.3%), and seventh in air yards share (41.1%).
- Among tight ends, David Njoku is eighth in target share (18.8%), and 11th in air yards share (13%).
- Per TruMedia, Amari Cooper has played 245 snaps on the perimeter and 44 in the slot.
- David Njoku leads the league in snaps as an inline tight end. He's played 30 snaps on the perimeter and 66 in the slot.
Patriots Defense
- The Patriots have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing and the 8th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 18th-most yards receiving and 20th in receptions.
- New England has allowed the 26th -most yards receiving on the 25th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the ninth most PPR points to inline tight ends.
The Patriots Offense vs. the Browns Defense
New England has a top-10 level offensive line. The Browns have an average front four with a premium edge rusher in Myles Garrett. From a macro sense, the Patriots have a moderate edge in the trenches, though Garrett presents a matchup issue against virtually everyone.
Betting Notes
- The Patriots are 2-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 10-9-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mac Jones is 10-10 on overs in his career.
- Bailey Zappe is 1-0 against the spread and 0-1 on overs.
- Bill Belichick is 204-142-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Bill Belichick is 182-171-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots Offense
- The Patriots are scoring 20.6 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- New England is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and in yards rushing.
- Whether Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe starts this game
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson is tenth in yards rushing and 32nd in yards receiving.
- With Damien Harris sidelined, Stevenson has a real shot at a massive role over the next few weeks.
- Jakobi Meyers is fifth in the league in target share (31.8%), and 12th in air yards share (38%).
- Hunter Henry has a 10.2% target share, and Jonnu Smith has a 9.5% target share.
- Per TruMedia, Jakobi Meyers has played 64 snaps on the perimeter and 83 in the slot.
- DeVante Parker leads the Patriots in perimeter snaps with 222, with just 27 in the slot.
Browns Defense
- The Browns have allowed 25 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have given up the fourth-most yards rushing and the 22nd-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Cleveland has allowed the 14th-most yards receiving on the 25th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Cleveland has given up the seventh most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Browns have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving on the second fewest receptions to tight ends this year.
This is What You're Betting On in Patriots vs. Browns
A bet on the Browns is a bet on an offense driven by their premium offensive line and their league-best running game. The Browns have already played in four one-score games. Cleveland is 1-3 in those contests. If you're betting on Cleveland, you're betting on them being on the right side of what looks like another close contest. You have two main concerns with a bet on the Browns. The first is that Jacoby Brissett has been very solid through the first five games, but this Browns team is not built to play from behind with Brissett. Your second biggest concern is that Brissett started his career with strategic mastermind Bill Belichick.
A bet on the Patriots is always a bet on Bill Belichick's opponent-specific gameplans that simultaneously get the most out of his own roster. Belichick is the greatest strategist in the history of the game, which was on full display last week as New England shut out the Lions, who were the league's highest-scoring offense entering that contest. The Browns have an elite offensive line and the best running game in football. If you're betting on the Patriots, Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett played under Belichick. The league's best coach will have his team prepared to mitigate the Browns' obvious strengths while knowing what Brissett does well and what he doesn't.
The Browns have a better roster, but the Patriots have Belichick. Your biggest concern with a Patriots bet is their uncertainty at quarterback. Bailey Zappe played well last week, and we've seen similar outings out of unknown quarterbacks in the past under Belichick. But ultimately, we're asking an inexperienced quarterback to go win a game on the road against a talented Browns roster.
Patriots vs. Browns Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Chubb is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This is among my least favorite games on the slate from a winner pool perspective. That means I'll have some exposure to both teams, and whoever I take will be ranked toward the bottom of my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I won't bet on this game directly or put it in a tournament entry.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
WATCH MORE: Strong Running & Ball Control Keeping the "Surprise" Browns Going
