Betting
10/14/22
8 min read
Matchups Week 6: 49ers vs. Falcons
San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Opening Spread: Falcons +6.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Team Totals: Falcons (18.5), 49ers (24.5)
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons +6.
- This line has moved to Falcons +5.5 as of Thursday night.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Falcons +5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons +5.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved up to 44.5 points as of Thursday night.
Notable Injuries
Falcons: IR: Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Isaiah Oliver. Questionable: TE Kyle Pitts, LG Elijah Wilkinson, LB Mykal Walker, LB Adetokunbo Ogundeji.
49ers: Out: LT Trent Williams, CB Jason Verrett, S Jimmie Ward. Questionable: LG Aaron Banks, Edge Nick Bosa, Edge Samson Ebukam, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Arik Armstead.
The Falcons Offense vs. the 49ers Defense
At full strength, the 49ers front four is a top-five caliber unit. But each starter on the 49ers front four is currently on the injury report. At full strength, San Francisco has a considerable trench edge against the Falcons' below-average offensive line.
Betting Notes
- The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 4-1 on overs this season.
- Marcus Mariota is 31-33-2 against the spread in his career.
- Marcus Mariota is 38-27-1 on overs in his career.
- Arthur Smith is 11-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Arthur Smith is 11-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Falcons Offense
- The Falcons are scoring 23.6 points per game, good for tenth in the league.
- Atlanta is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Among quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota is sixth in yards rushing with 160.
- With Cordarrelle Patterson sidelined last week, Tyler Allgeier had 13 carries to Caleb Huntley's eight.
- Per the Edge, Drake London is fourth in the league with a 32.8% target share. London has a 29% air yards share.
- Kyle Pitts is second on the Falcons with a 23.2% target share, leading the team with his 32% air yards share. Pitts missed last week's contest against the Buccaneers.
- Per TruMedia, Pitts has played 68 snaps as an inline tight end, 53 on the perimeter, and 54 in the slot.
49ers Defense
- The 49ers have allowed 12.2 points per game, which is tied for the best in the league.
- On opening day, the 49ers held Justin Fields to 28 yards rushing on 11 carries.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing and the 21st-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has allowed the 20th-most yards receiving on the 21st-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have given up the third-fewest yards receiving on the 23rd-most receptions to tight ends this season.
The 49ers Offense vs. the Falcons Defense
The 49ers are a fringe top-10 offensive line with elite left tackle Trent Williams. Without him, they are on the border between average and below average. That isn't a major problem against a bottom-tier Falcons front. That said, Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is a matchup issue for most opponents. Overall, the 49ers have a slight edge in the trenches from a macro sense, but Jarrett is an obstacle for San Francisco.
Betting Notes
- The 49ers are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 1-4 on overs this season.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 28-21-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 26-22-2 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 42-43-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 42-42-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
49ers Offense
- The 49ers are scoring 21.6 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
- San Francisco is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- Since taking over in Week 2 for an injured Eli Mitchell, Jeff Wilson has had at least 74 yards rushing in each of the last four games. Wilson has only had less than 17 carries once during that span.
- Per the Edge, Deebo Samuel leads the team with a 28.1% target share and is second with an 18.1% air yards share.
- Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers with a 31.2% air yards share. Aiyuk is second on the team with a 19.3% target share.
- Since returning from injury, George Kittle has a 17.9% target share and an 11.7% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Deebo Samuel has played 161 snaps on the perimeter and 42 in the slot.
- Brandon Aiyuk has played 214 snaps on the perimeter and 56 in the slot.
- George Kittle has played 105 snaps as an inline tight end, six on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.
Falcons Defense
- The Falcons have allowed 24.4 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing and the 11th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Atlanta has given up the seventh-most yards receiving on the third-most receptions to enemy wide receivers this season.
- Atlanta has given up the ninth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the seventh-most to slot receivers.
- The Falcons have surrendered the third-most yards receiving on the second-most receptions to enemy tight ends this year.
- The Falcons have surrendered the sixth-most PPR points to inline tight ends and the ninth-most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You're Betting On in 49ers vs. Falcons
The 49ers beat Atlanta 31-13 in San Francisco last year. The Falcons have a new quarterback, and they've added Drake London, but otherwise, this season's roster is fairly similar to last year's.
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on a scrappy team that has covered in every game they've played in so far this season. Atlanta has the tenth-best scoring offense through the first five games. If the 49ers front four is mostly active for this contest, it will be a very tall order for Atlanta to maintain their current level of performance on offense. Atlanta gave the Buccaneers a very contested game last week, which I wasn't expecting. If you're betting on the Falcons, you're looking for the same effort against another NFC contender. Your biggest concern with a Falcons bet is that the 49ers high-end defense shuts down this offense as they have against virtually everyone they've played this season.
A bet on the 49ers is a bet on a veteran football team that wins with toughness, good coaching, and strong defense. The 49ers offense showed some ceiling last week against the Panthers. Atlanta's below-average defense is a great opportunity for the 49ers offense to exceed expectations once again. Atlanta has been a tough out this season, so if you're betting on the 49ers to cover this number,r you are betting on another strong defensive effort. My biggest concern with a 49ers bet is the state of their front four. If Nick Bosa and most of that group are ready to go, San Francisco has multiple paths to a convincing win against Atlanta. The 49ers are on their second road game in a row, with a date against the Chiefs next week.
49ers vs. Falcons Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender. Drake London is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: Atlanta is an interesting differentiator option in winner pools with weekly payouts. If the 49ers' front four is mostly out for this contest, I might take Atlanta with a one-winner pool entry. If the 49ers front is mostly good to go for this one, I'll stick with San Francisco.
Spread Pool: Chris Farley and I discussed this game on our recent Twitter spaces, where I said that I hated this line when I saw it. I have no intention of betting on this game currently.
Survivor Pool: This is a difficult week in survivor pools, where the 49ers are an option that warrants consideration. Given the injury situations for the 49ers entire front four, I'll be discussing this game from a survivor pool slant during our Sunday live blog at 10:00 AM EST.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
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