Betting
10/8/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 5: Eagles at Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Opening Spread: Cardinals +5
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (22.25), Eagles (27.25)
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals +5.
- This line has moved to Cardinals +5.5 as of Friday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cardinals +5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cardinals +5.
- This total opened at 49.5 points.
- This total remains at 49.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Cardinals: Suspended: DeAndre Hopkins; Doubtful: C Rodney Hudson, NT Rashard Lawrence; Questionable: WR Rondale Moore, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Justin Pugh
Eagles: Out: CB Avonte Maddox; Doubtful: LT Jordan Mailata
The Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Cardinals have an average at best offensive line at full strength. With center Rodney Hudson trending towards missing this contest, the Eagles' top-ten front has a significant advantage in the trenches this week. Kyler Murray’s ability to extend plays will help reduce that disadvantage some, but pass protection will still be an uphill battle for Arizona.
Betting Notes
- The Cardinals are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Cardinals are 1-2-1 on overs this season.
Cardinals Offense
- The Cardinals are scoring 22 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Arizona is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, James Conner is 34th among running backs in yards rushing with 145 yards. Conner is 12th among running backs in targets (18) with a 10.7% target share.
- Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has a massive role through the first four games. Brown is fourth in the league in targets (45), receptions (30), eighth in yards receiving (339), 14th in target share (26.6%), and fifth in air yards share (41.2%). Brown has played 214 snaps on the perimeter and 56 in the slot.
- Rondale Moore made his season debut last week in Carolina, where he caught three-of-five targets for 11 yards receiving. Moore played 42 perimeter snaps and 17 in the slot last week.
- Greg Dortch is currently second in the league in snaps from the slot with 185.
- Zach Ertz has an 18.3% target share with a 17.2% air yards share. Ertz has played 74 snaps as an in-line tight end, 23 snaps on the perimeter, and 131 snaps from the slot.
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 17.8 points per game, which is tied for ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the ninth-fewest yards rushing and the 18th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Philadelphia has given up the tenth-fewest yards receiving on the 18th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the tenth-fewest yards receiving on the 11th-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
With LT Jordan Mailata listed as doubtful and Andre Dillard on IR, Philadelphia could be down to its third option at left tackle this week. Even with that downgrade, the Cardinals have a bottom-tier front and the Eagles will still have a significant macro advantage in the trenches.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are among the best trios of pass-catchers in the NFL. They are going to be a tall order for a below-average Cardinals' secondary, particularly their cornerback group.
Betting Notes
- The Eagles are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 2-2 on overs this season.
Eagles Offense
- The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Philadelphia is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Miles Sanders is third among running backs in yards rushing this season with 356 yards. Sanders is tied for tenth in red zone carries with ten, and he’s tied for third in rushing touchdowns with three.
- A.J. Brown is fifth in the league in target share (32.2%) and leads the league in air yards share (44%). Brown is fourth in the league in yards receiving (404) and 13th in receptions (25). Brown has seen 160 snaps on the perimeter and 78 in the slot.
- DeVonta Smith has a 22.9% target share and a 33.1% air yards share. Smith has played 219 snaps on the perimeter and 41 in the slot.
- Dallas Goedert has a 16.9% target share with a 6.5% air yards share, yet Goedert is second in the league among all pass-catchers in yards after the catch (204). Goedert has played 133 snaps as an in-line tight end, 24 on the perimeter, and 69 in the slot.
Cardinals Defense
- The Cardinals have allowed 25.8 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the eighth-fewest yards rushing and the ninth-most yards receiving to running backs.
- Arizona has given up the seventh-fewest yards receiving on the 16th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Cardinals have allowed the second-most yards receiving on the second-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- The Cardinals have given up the most PPR points to tight ends in the slot and the fifth-most to in-line tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Cardinals vs. Eagles
A bet on the Cardinals is a bet on a flawed Arizona roster playing an Eagles team that has arguably the best roster in the league. If you’re betting on Arizona you’re primarily betting on the Eagles coming out flat/playing down in this contest after their impressive 4-0 start. As with any Cardinals bet, if you bet on Arizona you are effectively betting on Kyler Murray elevating this offense. In this case, you need Murray to exceed expectations against a defense that is giving up 17.8 points per game. A bet on the Cardinals can also be a bet on negative regression for Jalen Hurts, who is currently playing at an MVP level.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on a high-end roster winning a game on the road against a flawed Cardinals team. Philadelphia has an advantage in both trenches. Eagles' pass-catchers are going to be a real problem for Arizona’s secondary. The Eagles' secondary is well-equipped to handle the Cardinals' pass-catchers. Philadelphia has a talent edge in all of those position group battles. As long as Jalen Hurts continues to play at his current level of performance, the Eagles are a juggernaut. You have two concerns with an Eagles bet here. The first is Kyler Murray is capable of hanging with anyone. The second is negative regression for Hurts specifically or the Eagles as a whole in a cross-country road game with a primetime date with Dallas on deck next week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender. Nick Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite. A.J. Brown is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/Confidence Pool: The Cardinals are an interesting differentiator option in winner pools. I think the Eagles win this game and cover, but I will take the Cardinals in one of my large field winner pools in an effort to get different in that entry. In confidence pools I will have the Eagles ahead of the Saints and whoever I take in Rams vs. Cowboys.
Spread Pool: I’ve been high on the Eagles since March. They are very much for real, and they have an elite roster. There is a lookahead component with Dallas on deck next week, and the Eagles will be traveling cross-country. I mention those factors because in order for the Eagles to not cover in this contest, they are going to have to come out flat/play down. I’m still going to take the Eagles in one of my ATS tournament entries, simply because I bet on teams that have trench advantages on both sides of the ball.
Survivor Pool: On a slate with several significant home favorites this contest should be avoided for survivor purposes. I’d rather save the Eagles until later in the year.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: How to Slow Down Jalen Hurts, Eagles Offense
