Betting
9/30/22
6 min read
Matchups Week 4: Chargers at Texans
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)
Opening Spread: Texans +6.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Opening Team Totals: Texans (19.75), Chargers (25.75).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Texans +6 and Texans +6.5.
- This line has moved down to Texans +4.5 as of Friday morning.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Texans +5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Texans +5.
- This total opened between 45.5 and 46 points.
- This total has settled at 45.5 points as of Friday morning.
Notable Injuries
Texans: Questionable: TE Brevin Jordan, CB Isaac Yiadom.
Chargers: I.R. LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa. Questionable: WR Keenan Allen, C Corey Linsley, CB J.C. Jackson.
The Texans Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The absence of Edge Joey Bosa turns the Chargers top-five type of pass rush into one that’s in the middle-of-the-pack. Houston’s offensive line is in a similar position, which makes this a matchup with no significant trench advantage.
Notes and Observations
- The Texans are 2-0-1 against the spread this season.
- The Texans are 1-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Davis Mills is 23rd in passing yards and 29th in yards per attempt.
- Rookie running back Dameon Pierce has taken over the Texans backfield. Among running backs Pierce is currently 15th in the league in yards rushing while teammate Rex Burkhead is 18th in yards receiving at the position.
- The Chargers have allowed the 11th most yards rushing and the seventh most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Brandin Cooks has not had an explosive box score yet, but he’s seen between seven and 12 targets in all three games this season. Cooks is 18th in the league in target share (26.9%) and 24th in air yards share (33.8%).
- The Chargers have allowed the 12th most yards receiving on the sixth most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Pharaoh Brown leads Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard in snaps, routes run, target share, and air yards share, but all three tight ends are seeing notable playing time.
- The Chargers have surrendered the 12th most yards receiving on the 19th most receptions to tight ends this season.
The Chargers Offense vs. Texans Defense
The loss of premium left tackle Rashawn Slater not only drops the Chargers offensive line to the middle-of-the-pack, but Los Angeles now has average, at best, players at both offensive tackles. Houston has an average at best front four themselves, making this a relative draw in the trenches.
Notes and Observations
- The Chargers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 1-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Justin Herbert is fourth in the league in yards passing and 13th in yards per attempt.
- Herbert was a full practice participant on Thursday, which is why he’s off the injury report despite still having a rib issue.
- Austin Ekeler only has 80 yards rushing through the first three games, but he leads all running backs with 139 yards receiving.
- The Texans have allowed the most yards rushing and the 19th most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- With Keenan Allen out, Josh Palmer leads the Chargers in target share (17.4%) while Mike Williams leads in air yards share (31.3%).
- The Texans have allowed the 16th most yards receiving on the sixth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Among tight ends, Gerald Everett is 11th in target share (16.5%) and fifth in air yards share (17.4%).
- Houston has allowed the 11th fewest yards receiving on the third-fewest receptions to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Texans vs. Chargers
A bet on the Texans is a bet on a scrappy football team that is 2-0-1 against the spread this season. Houston’s offense hasn’t had a breakthrough game yet this season, but the Texans beat the Chargers 41-29 late last season when Los Angeles was very much in the playoff hunt. A bet on the Texans could be a bet against a Chargers team that lost significant talent during their embarrassing loss to the Jaguars last week. Your biggest concern with a Texans bet is that Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and his offense is capable of exceeding expectations any given week because of him. Herbert is currently off the injury report after a full Thursday practice, but he’s still playing through his rib cartilage injury.
A bet on the Chargers is a bet on a team that is coming off an embarrassing, blowout loss to the Jaguars in Los Angeles last week. If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are primarily betting on Justin Herbert carrying this offense as he’s done since he took over his rookie season. The Texans currently have the worst run defense in the league, which makes this a prime spot for the Chargers running backs led by the dynamic Austin Ekeler. The Chargers entered the season with an elite line on both sides of the ball, but injuries have sidelined their best offensive lineman and their best pass rusher. Those are two massive hits to the Chargers talented roster.
Newly signed cornerback J.C. Jackson has already missed two games and is on the injury report as of this writing. After last week’s effort and a lot of mediocrity last season, we have to treat Brandon Staley’s coaching staff as more of a liability than an edge strategically unless proven otherwise. A concern on a Chargers bet is that Herbert is still in a situation where he may not be able to finish this contest if he takes the wrong kind of hit.
Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Herbert is an MVP candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will most likely take the Chargers in winner pools, but I will wait until injury reports are finalized until deciding here. I will cluster the Chargers alongside the Colts and Steelers in confidence pool rankings if Herbert plays.
Spread Pool: This is my least favorite ATS game this week as, outside of Justin Herbert, I cannot trust the Chargers after their brutal showing against the Jaguars. Herbert is also the reason I can’t take the Texans as a one-score underdog.
Survivor: Given their performance last week and the injury situation for the Chargers, I am passing on them in survivor this week.
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