Expert Analysis
11/15/23
11 min read
6 NFL Teams That Need To Step Up Over Second Half of 2023 Season
Following the Buffalo Bills’ disastrous Monday night loss to the Denver Broncos, the Bills’ turnover-prone quarterback Josh Allen said, “It’s no secret the clock’s ticking, got to have some urgency now.”
That thought can also be echoed by five other teams whose playoff hopes or Super Bowl aspirations are teetering with eight weeks remaining in the regular season.
Here are six teams — four in the AFC and two in the NFC — that need to elevate their performance down the stretch if they want to reach the playoffs and beyond.
NFL Teams Who Need Step Up Now
Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ 24-22 loss to the Broncos was a result of a bevy of mistakes by a team that won 13 games last season but that has now lost four of its last six games, including two to sub-.500 teams (the New England Patriots and the Broncos). The Bills are 5-5 and currently the 10th seed in the AFC with a 2-5 record in conference games (not good for potential tiebreakers).
There were four turnovers in the game by the Bills (including two Allen interceptions — one on a Gabe Davis drop — and a lost fumble by Allen). Then, on the Broncos’ final drive, Taron Johnson committed a 28-yard pass interference penalty; later on that same drive, Wil Lutz was given a second chance to make the winning field goal after missing a 41-yard kick because the Bills were flagged for 12 men on the field.
“Inexcusable,” was coach Sean McDermott’s appropriate reaction. That’s the kind of loss that leaves a mark — and it led to the firing of OC Ken Dorsey.
The feast-or-famine Allen is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (19) but leads the league in interceptions (11) and turnovers (14). He is forcing too many throws, but Dorsey is the fall guy for an offense scoring 25 or fewer points in six straight games after ranking second in scoring last season (28.4 points per game). McDermott will now have his hands full keeping star receiver Stefon Diggs from stirring things up again after he was targeted only five times (with three catches) Monday night.
The Bills’ defense has been injury-riddled, losing two Pro Bowlers: CB Tre’Davious White (torn Achilles) and LB Matt Milano (fractured leg). As a result, the unit has fallen from ranked sixth in 2022 to 17th this season.
Buffalo is an inconsistent team with a rough remaining schedule that includes a killer three-game stretch after hosting the New York Jets this week: at Philadelphia, at Kansas City and home vs. Dallas. Then, the Bills close out the regular season at Miami. It appears Buffalo’s run of three straight AFC East titles and four straight playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy without a dramatic turnaround.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals got off to a slow start at 1-3 as Joe Burrow struggled with the recovery from his training camp calf injury. It looked like the Bengals were back on track during their four-game winning streak that included victories over the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Bills with Burrow in fine form and the defense holding the opposition to 17 points per game during that stretch.
Things unraveled Sunday in a damaging 30-27 home loss to the Houston Texans. Burrow passed for 347 yards and two touchdowns, but he threw two interceptions, and the defense fell apart, allowing 544 yards including 356 passing yards to rookie QB C.J. Stroud. (Although, the Bengals’ defense did force three turnovers by Stroud).
The loss puts Cincinnati in a precarious spot at 5-4. They’re in last place in the tough AFC North and in bad shape on tiebreakers with an 0-2 division record and 1-4 in AFC games. The offense ranks last in rushing (75 yards per game), which has put more pressure on the passing game.
The defense has fallen from middle of the pack last season to 30th this season. This is far from what was expected of a team that was in the Super Bowl two years ago and that was a final-four team last season.
Cincinnati has a tough schedule ahead with no games left against teams with a losing record as of now. They have a huge game on the road Thursday against the Baltimore Ravens (who beat them 27-24 in Week 2) followed by playing the Pittsburgh Steelers at home and then the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road.
The Bengals also have difficult road games at Pittsburgh and Kansas City and are home vs. the hot Minnesota Vikings and rival Cleveland Browns in the season finale. It’s obviously going to be a major challenge for coach Zac Taylor and his team to get back to the playoffs.
Los Angeles chargers
There’s lots of talent on this Los Angeles Chargers team, but it doesn’t show up consistently, especially on defense. The Chargers’ 0-2 start with close losses to the Dolphins and Tennessee Titans put Los Angeles in an early hole that the team has yet to climb out of — despite reaching .500 after Week 4 and Week 9.
The Chargers fell to 4-5 on Sunday with a frustrating 41-38 home loss to the Detroit Lions. It’s bizarre to see star QB Justin Herbert throw four touchdown passes and lead the team to touchdowns on its last five drives but lose the game because Los Angeles was in catch-up mode after falling behind 24-10 and after the defense allowed 200 rushing yards and 533 total yards.
The Chargers couldn’t get a stop on fourth-and-2 in the last two minutes, and the Lions won on a walk-off field goal.
There’s been an abundance of criticism of coach Brandon Staley’s game management over the past couple of years; last year’s playoff collapse in Jacksonville will long be remembered.
But the biggest indictment of Staley is that his expertise is supposed to be defense (he’s the former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator), yet his defense ranks 31st in the league (and last against the pass) despite having stars such as Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Derwin James.
The Chargers’ toughest games left are all at home (where they are 2-3) against the Ravens, Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Los Angeles faces the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field this week and has divisional visits to Las Vegas and Denver (whom they play in a home-and-home series).
The Chargers must get it together quickly for a return to the playoffs, but it’s hard to see that happening with this up-and-down team led by a coach clearly on the hot seat.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers said this week on his weekly media pulpit (“The Pat McAfee Show”) about his torn Achilles timeline: “If [the Jets] are not in it in three or four weeks, that could take it a different way. I expect us to be in it, and I expect to come back.”
The Sunday night loss in Las Vegas certainly didn’t help the cause for Rodgers and the Jets. Much-scrutinized QB Zach Wilson threw a bad interception in the red zone with 1:22 remaining, and after a defensive stop, he couldn’t lead the team to a last-minute win.
Wilson’s career record dropped to 11-19 — he ranks 30th in passer rating (74.6) — and the Jets are 4-5, one-and-a-half games out of a playoff spot. The sixth-ranked defense is trying hard but can’t make up for the league’s No. 29 offense and No. 30 passing game with Wilson at the helm, despite a supporting cast that includes star WR Garrett Wilson and an excellent back in Breece Hall. Meanwhile, the offensive line has struggled with 34 sacks allowed — third-most in the league.
The Jets showed their potential when, mostly due to their defense, they delivered the Philadelphia Eagles’ only loss this season in Week 6 when New York forced four turnovers (including three interceptions of Jalen Hurts). The Jets followed that up with a win over the Giants to move to 4-3 before bad losses the past two weeks at home to the Chargers and on the road to the Raiders.
The next two weeks are critical for the Jets, with divisional games at Buffalo and home against Miami (who they also face in Miami in Week 15). The Texans and Browns are other contending teams on New York’s remaining schedule.
Coach Robert Saleh is sticking with Wilson this week, which either speaks to Saleh’s lack of confidence in backups Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian or his desire not to totally destroy Wilson’s already-shaky confidence.
As for Rodgers, even if he’s cleared medically, we probably won’t see him in action until 2024, because a Jets winning streak over the next several weeks is unlikely.
Atlanta Falcons
Three straight losses by a total of 10 points have dropped the Atlanta Falcons to 4-6 and from first to third in the winnable NFC South. They’re only one game behind the New Orleans Saints, and both teams are on byes this week. They meet in Atlanta on November 26 and close out the season in New Orleans.
The Falcons’ schedule is favorable — other than the two Saints games, 5-5 Indianapolis is the only non-losing-record team they’ll face. But Atlanta is another team with quarterback issues. Desmond Ridder’s play was spotty the first seven games with an 84.1 rating to rank 24th in the league before he gave way to Taylor Heinicke, who has a similarly poor quarterback rating at 84.2.
We’ll see who coach Arthur Smith starts against the Saints after Heinicke injured his hamstring in Sunday’s disappointing 25-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Ridder came in and led the Falcons on a late touchdown drive, but the missed two-point conversion was costly when, for the second straight week, the defense gave up a late winning score (in this case, a walk-off field goal) after a Kyler Murray–led drive.
The Atlanta defense was effective early this season but has fallen off in the last three weeks with Titans rookie QB Will Levis throwing four touchdown passes in Week 8 and Vikings QB Josh Dobbs beating the Falcons two weeks ago with no practice reps after his trade earlier that week from Arizona. Dobbs ran for 66 yards and one touchdown and threw the winning touchdown pass with 27 seconds left.
Then, on Sunday against Atlanta, the Cardinals had success running and passing. The good news for the Falcons was they leaned more heavily on first-round RB Bijan Robinson, and he rushed for 95 yards on 22 carries with one touchdown. Smith prefers a run-oriented offense such as the one he had with Derrick Henry when Smith was the Titans’ offensive coordinator.
With Atlanta’s inconsistent quarterback play, Robinson is the best option to carry the load and to try to lead the Falcons to the division crown and their first playoff berth since 2017. But the Falcons’ defense needs to rediscover its higher caliber of play, especially late in games.
Dallas Cowboys
It may be a bit of a reach to include the 6-3 Dallas Cowboys among this group, but they have not yet beaten a team with a winning record. They have a five-week stretch against teams with .500-or-better records beginning in Week 13, including home vs. Seattle and Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Miami and home vs. Detroit.
Dallas has beaten up lowly teams such as the Giants twice, the Patriots, Jets and Rams, but the Cowboys were upset by the Cardinals, drilled 42-10 in San Francisco and came up short in Philadelphia 28-23 when they reached the Eagles’ 6-yard line in the last minute — only to have two penalties, a sack and a pass by Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb be completed short of the goal line doom their chances for a statement win.
Prescott (No. 3 in passer rating at 105.1) and Lamb (third-most receiving yards with 975 on 68 receptions) are having excellent seasons, and Micah Parsons again leads Dallas’ third-ranked defense (he has 7.5 sacks, 17 quarterback hits and 10 tackles for loss).
The Cowboys will be a playoff team, but if they want to be considered a bonafide Super Bowl contender, they need to win several of the challenging games remaining on their schedule, especially the rematch with the Eagles at home on Sunday night, December 10. That might help Dallas dethrone Philadelphia in the NFC East and earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, which is a much better path to postseason success.
