Betting
1/17/24
10 min read
2024 NFL Betting: Recommended Plays for Divisional Round Games
This article details is intended for NFL player prop betting purposes for the NFL’s Divisional Playoff round but is applicable in DFS. Statistics are drawn from SportsInfoSolutions and TruMedia databases.
Saturday's NFL Divisional Round Games
No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
The game’s 43.5-point over/under on both FanDuel and DraftKings is this week’s lowest game total. The Houston Texans are implied to score just 17.0 points as 9.5-point road underdogs. The Baltimore Ravens are implied to score 26.5 points.
Baltimore’s rotational safety Daryl Worley was placed on injured reserve on Jan. 5 and No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey failed to practice on Tuesday and Wednesday, nursing a multi-week calf strain.
Recommended Bets
Texans RB Devin Singletary
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+135); to score two-plus anytime touchdowns (+950); 75.5 yards from scrimmage (-118, over)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+150); to score two-plus anytime touchdowns (+1,000); 54.5 yards rushing (-120, over); 13.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-115, over); 2.5 receptions (-125, over)
Houston RB Devin Singletary’s usage, defensive matchup and expected game script provide bettors with a high-leverage opportunity.
Singletary registered a 79.5 percent backfield rushing share (62 rushing attempts) over the team’s last four games. He functions as the primary running back when the team trails by three or more points and splits two-minute-drill snaps with No. 3 RB Dare Ogunbowale.
Singletary has a 100 percent catch rate over his last four games, thrice catching three-of-three targets.
Baltimore’s elite defense is vulnerable on the ground, ranking 20th or worse in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.4), first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate (22.6 percent), yards allowed after contact per rushing attempt (2.8) and broken-and-missed-tackles-forced rate (11.1 percent) on non-quarterback rushing attempts.
Baltimore’s defense closes on the ball quickly but allows the league’s seventh-highest catch rate to opposing running backs (82.4 percent).
Ravens TE Isaiah Likely
DraftKings: Player with the longest reception (+550)
Baltimore’s No. 1 TE Mark Andrews returned to practice after his in-season lower-leg surgery following his Week 11 injury. The occurrence widens the range of outcomes for Baltimore pass catchers, creating a high-leverage opportunity for bettors willing to gamble on No. 2 TE Isaiah Likely. Andrews will play at less than 100 percent health, if active.
Likely’s 28.6 percent explosive pass plays rate since Week 12 leads Baltimore’s pass-catching corps (minimum 10 targets) by 10.4 percent and his eight explosive pass plays are the only total greater than five.
Houston’s tight end coverage unit allows receptions at the league’s 11th-highest rate (72.8 percent) and the yards per coverage snap (7.3) at the 16th-highest rate.
No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
This game boasts the week’s highest over/under (50.5 points) on both FanDuel and Draft Kings. The San Francisco 49ers are implied to score 30.0 points as 9.5-point home favorites. The Green Bay Packers are implied to score 20.5 points.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur regularly attack the opposition’s vulnerable splash zone, located between 10 yards downfield, between the painted numbers. Targets thrown into this area are worth at least 0.5 points-per-reception (PPR) points more than targets thrown between the painted numbers and the sideline at an equivalent depth. The phenomenon was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and later named by Legendary Upside’s Patrick Kerrane in 2023.
San Francisco’s splash zone coverage sharply declined following safety Talanoa Hufanga’s Week 11 ACL tear, dropping from a top-five-ranked 25.0 percent explosive pass plays allowed rate to a 20th-ranked 40.0 percent rate.
Green Bay’s No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander was forced from play last week after aggravating his sprained ankle. The splash zone coverage unit catastrophically ranks dead last in explosive pass plays allowed rate (50.0 percent).
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy (91) and Green Bay QB Jordan Love (88) rank eighth and ninth, respectively, in passing attempts thrown into the splash zone.
Green Bay LB De’Vondre Campbell isn't on the injury report after intermittently missing time (six games total) throughout the season. With Campbell active, Green Bay’s run defense ranks 10th in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play (0.10) and 13th in explosive run plays allowed rate (5.73 percent). San Francisco expects to return DT Arik Armstead. Both players’ presence reinforces the opposition’s passing volume.
Recommended Bets
49ers QB Brock Purdy
FanDuel: 1.5 touchdowns passing (-198, over); 263.5 yards passing (-114, over)
DraftKings: 21.5 completions (+100, over); 39.5-yard longest completion (-115, over)
Brock Purdy averages 267.5 yards passing and 1.94 touchdowns passing per game. Among 21 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts thrown into the splash zone, Purdy ranks in the top six in yards per passing attempt (13.8), completion rate (62.6 percent) and success rate (62.6 percent).
Potential parlays and/or related standalone prop bets: WR Deebo Samuel (DraftKings: 58.5 yards receiving (-115, over) and 22.5-yard longest reception (-120, over)); WR Brandon Aiyuk (DraftKings: 66.5 yards receiving (-115, over) and 25.5-yard longest reception (-115, over)).
Packers QB Jordan Love
FanDuel: 246.5 yards passing (-114, over)
DraftKings: 1.5 touchdowns passing (-110, over); 37.5-yard longest completion (-115, over)
Since Week 10, Jordan Love has averaged 271.1 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns passing per game. Among 20 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 such passing attempts since Week 10, he ranks fifth in both splash zone success rate (67.3 percent) and yards per splash zone passing attempt (14.8).
Potential parlays and/or related standalone prop bets: WR Dontayvion Wicks (DraftKings: 17.5-yard longest reception (-125, over)); TE Luke Musgrave (DraftKings: 13.5-yard longest reception (-105, over)).
Sunday's NFL Divisional Round Games
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 3 Detroit Lions
The game’s 48.5-point over/under on both FanDuel and DraftKings is the week’s second-highest game total. The Detroit Lions are implied to score 27.5 points as 6.5-point home favorites. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are implied to score 21 points.
Tampa Bay’s high-volume passing offense ranks top 10 in explosive pass plays (97) and EPA per dropback (0.07). The unit has strong odds of covering the spread (-110 on FanDuel), which reinforces Detroit’s passing volume.
Tampa Bay’s starting edge rushers — Shaq Barrett (ankle sprain) and YaYa Diaby (shoulder) — suffered injuries during Super Wild Card Weekend. Their availability remains unknown.
Recommended Bets
Lions QB Jared Goff
FanDuel: 1.5 touchdowns passing (-148, over); 270.5 yards passing (-114, over); 23.5 completions (-130, over pending Barrett and Diaby’s availability)
DraftKings: 38.5-yard longest completion (-110, over)
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff should routinely rack up explosive pass plays against Tampa Bay’s welcoming pass defense.
Goff efficiently attacks the opposition’s splash zone each week. Among 21 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts thrown into the splash zone, Goff ranks in the top five in both on-target rate (71.7 percent) and catchable pass rate (82.6 percent), and top three in yards per passing attempt (15.1), success rate (59.9 percent) and PE per play (0.584).
Tampa Bay’s splash zone coverage ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per play (0.47), 20th in catch rate allowed (58.5 percent), 19th in success rate allowed (57.1 percent) and 18th in yards allowed per coverage snap (12.4).
Goff’s 75.1 percent completion rate on unpressured passing attempts ranks fourth-best among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 160 unpressured passing attempts. Detroit’s offensive line boasts the 13th-lowest pass-blocking blown block rate (3.204 percent).
Lions WR Josh Reynolds
DraftKings: 20.5-yard longest reception (-110, over)
Among Detroit pass catchers, WR Josh Reynolds’ 23 splash zone targets trail only No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 25.
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
The game received a 45.5-point FanDuel over/under and a 45.0-point DraftKings over/under. FanDuel implies the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will score 21.5 points and 24.0 points, respectively. DraftKings implies Kansas City and Buffalo will score 21.25 and 23.75, respectively. Kansas City’s offense should lean into the pass-heavy game script as 2.5-point road underdogs.
Kansas City’s offensive weapons hugely benefit from the Buffalo defense’s recent injury spate. Buffalo defenders LB Terrel Benard (ankle sprain), slot CB Taron Johnson (concussion protocol) and CB Christian Benford (knee injury) account for three of the team’s top-five coverage snap sums in both tight end coverage and running back coverage. DT Jordan Phillips (6-foot-6, 341 pounds) resides on injured reserve, as do No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White and ILB Matt Milano. Fill-in No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee injury) was unable to suit up for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Recommended Bets
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
FanDuel: 3.5 receptions (+130, over); 18.5 yards receiving (-114, over); 83.5 yards from scrimmage (-112, over); anytime touchdown (+115); to score two-plus touchdowns (+800)
DraftKings: 10.5-yard longest reception (-110, over); 62.5 yards rushing (-115, over)
Buffalo’s running back coverage unit ranks in the bottom six among NFL teams in both success rate allowed (47.8 percent) and yards allowed per coverage snap (6.3). Its injury-weakened state provides Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco with a clear runway toward dual-threat production.
Pacheco possesses surehandedness and bruising post-catch abilities, enhancing the likelihood he secures at least four passes and produces an explosive pass play. Among 40 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets, Pacheco ranks fourth in catch rate (88.2 percent), sixth in on-target catch rate (97.8 percent) and ties for ninth in broken tackles (seven).
Among 35 NFL running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts, Pacheco ranks top 16 in yards per rushing attempt (4.5), yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.8), success rate (40.2 percent) and EPA per play (-0.01). He executes well in the green zone, ranking 12th in designed gap rate (64.0 percent), ninth in first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate (36.0 percent) and sixth in stuff rate (20.0 percent) and hit-at-the-line rate (40.0 percent).
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+120)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+125); 69.5 yards receiving (-115, over); 6.5 receptions (-105, over); 21.5-yard longest reception (-120, over)
Since the team’s Week 10 bye, Kansas City Chiefs No. 1 WR Rashee Rice has lined up on the perimeter at a 52.9 percent pre-snap alignment rate, followed closely by a 44.7 percent slot rate. The inside/outside usage allows coach Andy Reid to align Rice according to Buffalo’s cornerback health.
Rice is Kansas City’s most efficient player on a per-route basis (27.0 percent TPRR rate and 2.48 YPRR) since the bye and likewise leads the team with six green zone targets. His elite 8.3 yards after the catch per reception rank second-best among 26 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets since Week 11. Rice’s post-catch slipperiness poses problems for a Buffalo pass defense that allows the league’s 10th-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers (65.1 percent).
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+130)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+140), 5.5 receptions (-140, over)
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce settled into the No. 2 pass catcher role following Rice’s post-Week 10 ascension, earning an 18.4 percent TPRR rate. Buffalo’s talented safeties may limit Kelce’s yardage production, but the weakened linebacker corps allows for high-volume, quick-hitting routes.
Bills QB Josh Allen
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (-115); to score two-plus anytime touchdowns (+600)
DraftKings: 12.5-yard longest rush (-125)
Buffalo QB Josh Allen should find room to run against a Kansas City run defense that allows the fifth-highest first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate (51.3 percent) and the 16th-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.4) on non-kneeldown quarterback rushing attempts. The unit stuffs quarterbacks at the league’s eighth-lowest rate (6.6 percent).
