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2023 Pre-Draft Superflex Fantasy Rookie Rankings

2023 Fantasy Rookie Rankings

Many analysts will tell you that ranking rookies prior to the NFL draft is a futile cause. For the most part, they are correct, but let me take you through my process before casting judgment. I will concede a player’s draft capital is about 50 percent of the equation when determining his dynasty value, but that still leaves half of the equation to be determined.


When determining a player’s value for these rankings, I try to completely eliminate draft capital from the equation. I look at college production and the strength of opponents above all other factors. The results of the combine and pro-days are important, but mostly just to get accurate measurements. I definitely appreciate their athletic scores, percentile rank, and comparable players, but really these factors are more narrative than analysis. Speed score, BMI, agility and overall athleticism definitely matter, but they are less predictive of outcome than we usually give them credit for.

I also want to be clear that these rankings are not influenced by the echo chamber that the fantasy community becomes. I have not looked at any rookie rankings from anyone at The 33rd Team or on Twitter. I have looked at the analysis from some trusted sources, listened to dozens of podcasts and scouts and did some highlight watching on YouTube. For the most part, I rely on production profiles and pay attention to reasons why some players produce, and others haven’t produced as much.

Top 50 Dynasty Super Flex Rankings

1. Bijan Robinson, RB, 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (9.83 Raw Athletic Score)

Robinson turned 21 years old in January and is widely considered the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He forced a total of 112 missed tackles this past season at Texas, creating 1,006 yards after contact. He totaled 4,215 yards, 7.0 yards per touch and averaged 13.4 yards per reception over three seasons at Texas. (scouting report)

2. C.J. Stroud, QB, 6-foot-3, 210 pounds

Ohio State quarterbacks haven’t fared well in the NFL, but many expect Stroud to be the first QB off the board in the NFL Draft. Stroud has been a pocket passer at Ohio State, and he thrived in the heavily used play-action approach in 2022, averaging 12.4 adjusted net passing yards per attempt with a 139.8 rating, the highest rate in this draft class. He gets criticized for not scrambling or rushing much, but that’s generally because he really didn’t need to. In his 25 starts over the past two seasons, Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions. My one concern is that he was throwing to the absolute best-receiving corps an offense could ever ask for while at Ohio State. (scouting report)

3. Anthony Richardson, QB, 6-foot-4, 244 pounds (10.00 RAS)

Prior to the NFL Combine, some experts speculated NFL teams had Florida’s Anthony Richardson ranked as the second-best quarterback, mentioning his “big-time ceiling, big-time ability. I know it’s a little bit of a rollercoaster, but teams are starting to look at quarterbacks as lottery picks, and this has the biggest payout.” Richardson’s performance at the combine might have been the best ever at any position, it could have NFL teams trading up to get him at 1.03. (scouting report)

4. Bryce Young, QB, 5-foot-10, 201 pounds

Consider me part of the “size matters” crowd even though I’ve always been told differently. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2021 and then followed that up last season as the only quarterback in Alabama history to throw for more than 3,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. He is one of the best prospects in terms of moving behind the line of scrimmage. Young had a class-high 14.9 percent touchdown rate while throwing for 7.7 yards per pass attempt (second), when operating from outside of the pocket in 2022. There are rumors that Young could go first overall to the Panthers, but the Texans are 100 percent in on him at number two overall. His draft capital could propel him ahead of the others post-draft. (scouting report)

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, 6-foot-1, 196 pounds (8.29 RAS)

Consistent and reliable on third downs and has the ability to create yards post-catch with his movement tools. I was much lower JSN compared to ADP and consensus rankings, but after looking into how and when he produced, I have little doubt he will translate well to the NFL. JSN totaled 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns while playing alongside two first-rounders in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and capped that season off with a 15-347-3 game in the Rose Bowl with both Wilson and Olave sitting out. (scouting report)

6. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, 5-foot-9, 200 pounds (8.05 RAS)

Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24 percent dominator rating as the team’s top running back alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. For his junior year, he transferred to Alabama and led the team with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. On runs in which Gibbs was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, he averaged just 0.9 yards per carry, when he was contacted after the line of scrimmage he averaged 10.8 yards per carry. (scouting report)

7. Zach Charbonnet, RB, 6-foot, 214 pounds (8.69 RAS)

Charbonnet is almost identical in size to Brian Robinson Jr. but is better in almost every facet of the game. After being stuck in a timeshare for two seasons at Michigan, Charbonnet transferred to UCLA where he racked up 3,014 yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He had 51 receptions (2.3 per game) during the past two years, but they were basically just check-downs and not true routes. (scouting report)

8. Jordan Addison, WR, 5-foot-11, 171 pounds, 5.87 RAS

Addison is still only 20 years old, with 219 career receptions, 29 TDs, and 3134 yards- at two different schools, Pitt and USC. Addison was the 2021 Biletnikoff Award Winner and was the main reason Kenny Pickett’s stock rose tremendously last year as Addison caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns at Pitt. Since transferring to USC this past season, his production dropped (59-875-8) but still maintained his higher-end efficiency. He was sixth in this draft class in yards per route run last season (2.78), he just ran 226 fewer routes in 2022 than he did in 2021. Addison is considered one of the safest picks in this class for fantasy rookie drafts, but at only 171 pounds. I can’t take him in my first round unless the rumors are true and he goes to the Chargers with the 21st pick in the NFL draft. (scouting report)

9. Quentin Johnston, WR, 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, 8.65 RAS

Johnston is an outstanding talent who has the size, length, explosiveness and run-after-catch ability to be a No. 1 wideout in the NFL. His skill set will translate to the NFL, and there’s a chance that he will be a better pro player than he was in college. Even with a 25.3 percent target share at TCU, there are concerns about him not dominating contested targets and aggressiveness at the catch-point. He may take some time to develop,  as scouts say he plays “smaller than his size.” Johnson measured a bit smaller than originally thought, which lowered my ranking. I originally had him as my top receiver in this class. I believe Johnson will have a solid career in the NFL, but he won’t be considered elite. (scouting report)


Draft Capital Dependent

The first nine I have ranked seem to be locked in as first or early second-round picks, and even if they fall a bit their college production indicates they will be successful at some level in the NFL. A month ago, I had WR Rashee Rice in my top 12 and the next two quarterbacks ahead of the next two receivers, I’ve made the switch because of the hype surrounding these players. If Zay Flowers gets the draft capital several reliable sources are saying he will get (first round), he solidifies his ranking, but Flowers is probably the most draft-dependent player in these rankings.

10. Zay Flowers, WR, 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, 8.3 RAS

Flowers played for four years and will be 23 years old early in the season. Boston College is a very run-heavy offense, so his career stats don’t look great, but in 2022 he had a 46.7 percent college dominator, 29.6 percent target share, accounted for 29.8 percent of the team receptions (sixth in this class), 36.4 percent of the receiving yardage (third), and 57.1 percent of the team touchdown catches (first). (scouting report)

11. Marvin Mims, WR, 5-foot-11, 183 pounds, 9.38 RAS

Mims is only 21 years old and had a 27.5 percent college dominator and 22.4 percent target share at Oklahoma. Mims is a true vertical flanker which differentiates him from most other receivers in this class. Of his 20 touchdown receptions in three seasons, 19 of them were on throws 20 or more yards downfield. According to PFF, he was: 10th in contested catch rate, ninth in yards per route run, second in YAC per reception, first in average depth of target and first in yards per reception. (scouting report)

The Superflex Factor

In Superflex dynasty drafts, quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL draft should absolutely be taken in the first round of your dynasty rookie draft. I like Hooker over Levis in dynasty fantasy football, but I also think Levis will be drafted far ahead of Hooker in the NFL draft. These players could easily shift post-draft. I purposely have TE Michael Mayer (scouting report) ranked behind them because there is no way on earth that I’m taking a tight end (not named Pitts) ahead of a quarterback in a rookie draft. Quarterback just means too much and tight end means too little. Unless we are talking premium scoring for a tight end, but even then, it would have to be the perfect landing spot.

12. Hendon Hooker, QB, 6-foot-3, 217 pounds

Hooker is 25 years old and coming off an ACL injury. He’s been through a lot to get to this spot in life, the NFL looks for leaders over raw talent, he has both. At Tennessee, Hooker played 18 games (16 starts), was 304-of-442, had 4,377 passing yards, with a 68.8 percent completion percentage, with 41 TDs, 3 interceptions, 9.77 Air yards/Attempt and 65 completions of more than 20 yards. There are rumors he will be drafted in the first round. If he isn’t, he will have to drop some in these rankings. I highly doubt he will be healthy to start the season, so it’s unlikely he gets any playing time in 2023. Teams that want him will want to take him in the first round to get that fifth-year option. (scouting report)

13. Will Levis, QB, 6-foot-4, 229 pounds

I’m not sold on him, but the NFL and other fantasy analysts seem to be high on him. His value rests on his draft capital. He’s impressive physically, but he is a poor processor, slow to react and has almost no pocket presence. Almost all of his college offense was scripted, he doesn’t read coverages well and he got beat out by a no-name at Penn State before he transferred to Kentucky. It appears NFL scouts and coaches like him because he worked in two different pro-style offenses in college and can call plays with 15-20 words and three different checks. Levis is also an older quarterback, he will be 24 years old by the time the season begins. (scouting report)

14. Michael Mayer, TE, 6-foot-4, 248 pounds, 7.66 RAS

He has all of the hype in what seems to be a pretty deep tight end class. Mayer had a 35.8 percent college dominator, 20.2 breakout age, at Notre Dame. His college production is that of a top-end WR. In tight end premium leagues, he should be considered ahead of Flowers (1.10 SF), and depending on where he lands in the draft, possibly a top-5 rookie position player (non-QB). (scouting report)

Depth of the 2023 Class

Every player is dependent on draft capital, but the order of the next 10 players (8RB and 2 WR) are dependent in relation to each other. They are all in the same tier, and their future ranking will be completely determined by draft capital and landing spot.

15. Israel Abanikanda, RB, 5-foot-11, 216 pounds, 9.88 RAS

After 954 yards and 10 touchdowns on 177 touches over his first two seasons at Pitt, he exploded for 1,577 yards and 21 scores on 251 touches a year ago. With the highest athletic score of the running backs at the combine, Abanikanda is starting to climb up draft boards in best ball. He’s been compared to Tevin Coleman, with 71.3 percent of his carries being zone concept runs (second in this class) while 73.8 percent of his carries were outside runs (third). The film grinders say that his broken tackle rate is low because his quickness and explosiveness get him to the second level before defenders can grab him. (scouting report)

16. Kendre Miller, RB, 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, 21 years old, 29.0 BMI

Miller may be a two-down running back, as he has not shown pass-catching skills. Miller was limited in his first two seasons, splitting touches with Zach Evans (see No. 23, 2.11), but when Evans transferred Miller skyrocketed. Miller is coming off producing 1,515 yards and 17 touchdowns on 240 touches (6.3 yards per touch). Although, 75.0 percent of Miller’s carries in 2022 came with six or fewer defenders in the box. Only three backs in this class averaged more yards per carry than Miller’s career 6.7 YPC, and he’s the second youngest back in this class. (scouting report)

17. Devon Achane, RB, 5-foot-8, 188 pounds, 7.04 RAS

He’ll probably be a day-two pick, but no running back less than 190 pounds has had more than 100 carries in a season. He’s lightning fast and was the second-most productive draft-eligible college running back in 2022. But at 5-foot-9, 188 pounds and a 27.3 BMI, we might just be hoping for the second coming of Chris Johnson (191 pounds) or Darren Sproles (186 pounds). Achane had a 40 percent college dominator and a 14.7 percent target share at Texas A&M. The more I hear about Achane, the more I like him. His body weight might be low because he is actually running track for Texas A&M and has aspirations of being an Olympic athlete. As soon as he starts training for football, his weight should increase by 5-10 pounds. That being said, I like him much better for dynasty than for just the 2023 season. (scouting report)

18. Tyjae Spears, RB, 5-foot-9, 201 pounds, 7.46 RAS

Spears had a great season in 2022 for Tulane, rushing for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns. While also adding 22 receptions for 256 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Spears has been a riser with an impressive Combine and Senior Bowl week and has the tape to back that up. Durability is the biggest question mark. (scouting report)

19. Tank Bigsby, RB, 6-foot-, 205 pounds, 8.31 RAS

Bigsby never had an elite year, but was consistently productive with more than 3,351 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 percent dominator and a two percent target share in three seasons at Auburn. After gaining 918 yards on just 149 touches (6.2 yards per touch) in his freshman season expectations were high, but he couldn’t match that efficiency again. (scouting report)

20. Zach Evans, RB, 5-foot-11, 202 pounds, 7.85 RAS

Evans transferred from TCU to Ole Miss for the 2022 season. With his new opportunity, Evans turned 156 touches into 1,055 yards and 10 touchdowns, 24.3 percent dominator, and a 6.9 percent target share. More than 80 percent of his carries came against light boxes. His efficiency was cut in half when he faced seven or more defenders in the box. Evans was bested by freshman Quinshon Judkins in usage and output. (scouting report)

21. Roschon Johnson, RB, 6-foot, 220 pounds, 8.09 RAS

Stuck behind Robinson on the depth chart, he still had a 6.1 percent target share, and 12.7 percent dominator despite limited usage. Johnson converted from quarterback to running back as a freshman due to injuries. During the 2019 season, he handled 146 touches for 807 yards and eight touchdowns. He is one of the few big backs in this class, he still has an 86th-percentile 10-yard split (1.58). (scouting report)

22. Josh Downs, WR, 5-foot-9, 171 pounds, 8.97 RAS

Downs is another small wide receiver in this class, and he will be 22 years old when the season starts. He had a tremendous 34.6 percent college dominator, led this class with 7.2 receptions per game and had a 34.1 percent target share.  Downs didn’t blaze the 40, but his 10-yard split was 1.51. Like several others in this class, Downs is almost exclusively a slot receiver. Downs ran 82.5 percent of his routes in the slot, so only 15.0 percent of his targets were contested catches. Downs is often compared to Elijah Moore, but Moore came out of college a year younger and was seven pounds heavier, faster and had a stronger college dominator in a better conference. (scouting report)

23. Jalin Hyatt, WR, 6-foot, 178 pounds, 9.49 RAS

Hyatt was the 2022 Biletnikoff Award Winner after catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns. In his previous two seasons, he caught just 41 passes for 502 yards and four touchdowns. 71.6 percent of Hyatt’s career yardage and 78.9 percent of his touchdown grabs came solely in 2022. I expect size to be an issue, but he was projected in the first round prior to the NFL combine. Hyatt led the entire SEC in man-coverage targets last season, and zero of them were contested. (scouting report)

24. Sean Tucker, RB, 5-foot-8, 207 pounds

The medical red flag keeping him from working out has me concerned, but apparently, he had his pro day on April 24, just three days before the draft. Sounds just like a politician promising an “October surprise” just to be fed more propaganda. After breaking out in 2021 with 1,751 yards and 14 touchdowns on 266 touches (6.6 yards per touch), Tucker took a slight step back this past season, racking up 1,314 yards and 13 scores on 242 opportunities (5.4 YPT). He also had 64 career receptions for 622 yards and four touchdowns at Syracuse. (scouting report)

25. Dalton Kincaid, TE, 6-foot-3, 246 pounds

Kincaid has some of the best ball skills we’ve ever seen from a tight end prospect. He only had two drops on 108 catchable passes in the last two seasons and was 16 of 27 in contested situations. He’ll turn 24 years old during the 2023 season, but age doesn’t matter much at tight end. He only played one year of High School football, of course, he was the typical basketball-playing tight end. (scouting report)

26. Rashee Rice, WR, 6-foot-1, 204 pounds, 9.52 RAS

In his senior season, Rice broke out with 1,355 yards and 10 touchdowns and 96 receptions on 157 targets. He was targeted on 35.7 percent of his routes and only ran 17.5 percent of his routes in the slot but averaged 4.99 yards per route when inside. He had a 32.9 percent dominator and a 33.2 percent target share at SMU. I actually had Rice in my top-12 based on his metrics, but there doesn’t seem to be any hype and will be fortunate to be a second-day pick. (scouting report)

27. Cedric Tillman, WR, 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, 9.56 RAS

After a 64 reception 1,081-yard, 12-touchdown breakout in 2021, Tillman returned to Tennessee for his fifth season. He opened the season with games of 6-83-0 and 9-162-1 before suffering an ankle injury in the third game that derailed the potential of continuing his breakout (while also facilitating the breakout of Hyatt). One of the few big bodies in this class and he knows how to use it. (scouting report)

28. Chase Brown, RB, 5-foot-9, 209 pounds, 9.79 RAS

Brown has three-down capability. In 2022, he had 355 touches, producing 1,883 yards and 13 touchdowns. Brown leads the draft class in percentage of team rushes (60.2 percent), percentage of team rushing yardage (75.4 percent) and 39.6 percent of total team yards. He will be 23 years old by the time the 2023 season starts. (scouting report)

29. DeWayne McBride, RB, 5-foot-10, 215 pounds

McBride is probably a two-down grinder in the NFL. He turns 22 in August, had a 41.8 percent college dominator and a two percent target share at UAB. (scouting report)

30. Darnell Washington, TE, 6-foot-6, 264 pounds, 9.88 RAS

Washington is a monster at 6-foot-6 and 264 pounds, 34 3/8-inch arms and 11-inch hands. He ran a 4.64 forty (89th percentile speed score) while also posting the fastest shuttle time in this class, ranking in the 93rd percentile athletically at his position. (scouting report)

31. Sam Laporta, TE, 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, 9.01 RAS

LaPorta accounted for 30.4 percent of the Iowa receptions (second in this class), 28.1 percent of the target (second), and 32.0 percent of the receiving yards (first). LaPorta is well-liked around the league. (scouting report)


The Rest of the Class

I don’t expect any player after this point to make a significant contribution to your dynasty roster. There are always a couple that surprise for a short time, but these are the players you should be selling at the first chance of a profit.

32. Evan Hull, RB, 5-foot-10, 209 pounds, 9.34 RAS

Hull accounted for 37.1 percent of the team’s total yards, including 55 Receptions for 546 yards, last season at Northwestern. Hull has a 37-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot-3 broad jump. Hull wasn’t good at breaking or avoiding tackles, but in his defense, he didn’t have much of an offensive line blocking for him. (scouting report)

33. Luke Musgrave, TE, 6-foot-5, 253 pounds, 9.77 RAS

Musgrave entered the season on the Mackey Watchlist, but his senior season was cut short to only two games due to a knee injury. In those two games, he went: 6-89-1 and 5-80-0. (scouting report)

34. Kayshon Boutte, WR, 6-foot, 185 pounds

Boutte has shown flashes of his potential throughout his career at LSU. He was a Freshman All-American and set the SEC record for receiving yards in a game in the season-finale against Ole Miss with 308 yards. Boutte again was LSU’s leading receiver in 2021, with 38 catches for 508 yards and nine touchdowns in six games.  Injuries and inconsistency have marred his past two seasons, but he has shown WR1 potential throughout college. (scouting report)

35. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, 6-foot-2, 203 pounds, 7.27 RAS

In 2022, Hutchinson led Iowa State with 107 receptions, 1171 yds, 10.9 yards per catch and 6 TDs. He accounted for 34.2 percent of Iowa State’s receptions, 34.5 percent of the team targets, 37.3 percent of the receiving yards, and had 2.45 yards per team pass attempt with a 34.4 percent college dominator. (scouting report)

36. Tyler Scott, WR, 5-foot-10, 187 pounds, 8.58 RAS

Scott was getting quite a bit of buzz as a sleeper from the best ball pundits about a month ago, but I haven’t heard much lately. (scouting report)

37. A.T. Perry, WR, 6-foot-3, 198 pounds, 9.84 RAS

Perry posted a 30.3 percent college dominator and a 27.3 percent target share at Wake Forest. (scouting report)

38. Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, 6-foot-3, 221, 9.96 RAS

Wheaton has the size to be a solid NFL receiver. He finished with a career-high 675 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he tested out of the gym at the NFL Combine.

39. Jayden Reed, WR, 5-foot-11, 191 pounds, 6.73 RAS

Reed is a highly touted route runner who can win against man (70.3 percent success) and zone (79.2 percent) coverage, while also excelling against press (77.8 percent). He was an age-19 break-out with a 28.7 dominator. (scouting report)

40. Jonathan Mingo, WR, 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, 9.97 RAS

Mingo is great after the catch. Film grinders and combine scouts are creating a lot of buzz in fantasy circles. He can be utilized all over the field; outside/inside flexibility, working out of the backfield, screens, comebacks, slants and can stretch the field. (scouting report)

41. Deuce Vaughn, RB, 5-foot-5, 179 pounds

Vaughn had 123 carries and 434 receiving yards as a true freshman, at least 1,850 scrimmage yards as both a sophomore and junior and 24 touches per game his junior season. He might be the greatest running back prospect of all time if he wasn’t only 5-foot-5, 179 pounds. Since 2000, no running back that’s weighed in less than 180 pounds has recorded more than 64 touches in an NFL season. He’s basically Tarik Cohen with the possible upside of Warrick Dunn. (scouting report)

42. Parker Washington, WR, 5-foot-10, 207 pounds

Washington fits the mold of a strong slot receiver. Large hands (10.25”) with good quickness and playmaking ability in contested situations. He produced at a high level despite playing behind Jahan Dotson through 2022. (scouting report)

43. Nathaniel Dell, WR, 5-foot-8, 165 pounds, 5.80 RAS

He had two seasons with more than 1,300 yards and double-digit touchdowns at Houston. (scouting report)

44. Andrei Iosivas, WR, 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, 9.95 RAS

Iosivas is a track speedster out of Princeton. He also competed and flashed some ability while at the Senior Bowl in January. (scouting report)

45. Dontayvion Wicks, WR, 6-foot-1, 206 pounds

Wicks tweaked his hip flexor running the 40 at the NFL Combine so his time came in much slower than anticipated, but his 10-yard split was among the best. He consistently wins deep and has great hands. (scouting report)

46. Mohamed Ibrahim, RB, 5-foot-8, 203 pounds

Ibrahim broke out as a freshman with more than 1,100 rushing yards. He struggled a bit in his sophomore year but bounced back as a junior. There were high hopes heading into his senior year, but he tore his Achilles at the end of Game 1 after rushing for 163 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State. He came back for his fifth year and set Minnesota single-season records for rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and 100-yard rushing games. (scouting report)

47. Kenny McIntosh, RB, 6-foot-1, 210 pounds

McIntosh earned more usage towards the end of the season and had more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage on the year. He also showed the ability to make an impact in the passing game. (scouting report)

48. Eric Gray, RB, 5-foot-9, 207 pounds

Coming out of Oklahoma, the 23-year-old had a 27 percent college dominator and a 12.3 percent target share. Gray seems to be flying under the radar in a deep RB class. (scouting report)

49. Keaton Mitchell, RB, 5-foot-7, 178 pounds

He has great straight-line speed but lacks size and agility. Mitchell had a 30.7% college dominator and an 8.7% target share at East Carolina. (scouting report)

50. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, 6-foot-2, 203 pounds

Thompson-Robinson might not be the top quarterback in this class, but he shouldn’t be overlooked. “While he doesn’t have the hype or frame of the other heavily discussed quarterbacks in the class, Thompson-Robinson’s experience, arm talent, athleticism, and functional intelligence give him a good foundation as a future NFL quarterback,”  The 33rd Team analyst Marc Trestman wrote about Thompson-Robinson. (scouting report)

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