Analysis
10/20/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 Game Previews: Stats Leading To Storylines
Andy Benoit provides insight into the most significant games on the 2023 NFL Week 7 slate. The stats provided below provide the storylines going into the games.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams
Steelers O vs. Rams D
L.A.’s no-name defensive line (no-name aside from Aaron Donald, of course) has looked very stellar anchoring against the run.
Pittsburgh has an NFL-low 74 rushing yards before contact all season.
The Rams initiate out of split safety as much as any defense. On these snaps, they are allowing 4.8 yards per play, which ranks 10th.
The Steelers are averaging 4.6 yards per play against pre-snap split safety looks, which ranks 26th.
Rams O vs. Steelers D
The Rams used motion as aggressively and frequently as any team in the league in Weeks 1-3. But in the last couple of weeks, they have drifted away from it a bit. They have also drifted away from some of the gap scheme runs that they showed at a much higher frequency in those first few games.
Patrick Peterson has been playing inside in dime, which the Steelers feature on 3rd down. The results so far have been excellent, both for him and the defense as a whole. This week he’ll face one of the best interior 3rd down receivers in the game in Cooper Kupp (who was borderline dominant on inside routes on 3rd down in his season debut against Philly last week).
The one stalwart on LA’s offensive line the last two seasons has been right tackle Rob Havenstein. In obvious pass situations will the Rams let their best lineman battle 1-on-1 against T.J. Watt?
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Lions O vs. Ravens D
DET’s 62 percent red zone run rate leads the NFL in 2023.
BAL is second in the NFL in red zone TD percentage allowed (25.0 percent) in 2023.
The Ravens have been dominant in fire zone this year.
The Lions rank 32nd in pass attempts outside the numbers but 1st in average yards gained per attempt.
The Ravens this season are second in yards per play allowed (5.7) on passes outside the numbers.
Ravens O vs. Lions D
BAL leads the NFL with an 18.3 percent screen pass attempt percentage in 2023. They rank ninth in success rate here at 36.4 percent.
EDGE Aidan Hutchinson is the third player ever (LB Shaq Leonard and LB Brian Urlacher) with 10+ sacks and 4+ INT in his first two seasons.
DET has played a lot less man and a lot more zone in 2023. One would expect that to continue against the uber-mobile Lamar Jackson.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers O vs. Chiefs D
Kellen Moore has not gotten into dagger concepts as much this season….will that change against a Chiefs defense that plays a lot of split safety?
Presumably, a big reason LA hired Moore was to open up the offense. Justin Herbert’s average depth of target has climbed from 7.4 (29th) in 2022 to 9.5 (fifth) in 2023.
Chiefs O vs. Chargers D
The last time Patrick Mahomes faced the Chargers his average depth of target was 11.0, one of his highest marks in the last three years.
Mahomes throwing deep since Tyreek Hill left:
2022: 9.4 percent (29th), 4 TD, 0 INT, 110.1 passer rating (7th)
2023: 10.2 percent (21st), 0 TD, 3 INT, 41.8 passer rating (32nd of 34)
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Dolphins O vs. Eagles D
Darius Slay typically plays LCB though in certain crunch-time situations he has matched up with a specific No. 1 WR. Will there be snaps where he travels with Tyreek Hill?
Linebacker has never been a big position of priority for the Eagles and GM Howie Roseman, which is why they entered this season with veteran journeymen Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow atop the depth chart. But both of those guys have played exceptionally well in both phases under first-time NFL linebackers coach D.J. Eliot (a 47-year-old college coaching veteran).
The Eagles’s blitz rates (25 percent, which is 23rd most) and stunt rates (27 percent, 19th most) have increased under new DC Sean Desai though this D is still, obviously, built around its four-man rush.
Josh Sweat is often the featured looper on stunts and has looked very good here.
James Bradberry has moved back to RCB after a couple of games at slot corner and veteran ex-Bronco/Saint Bradley Roby has handled slot duties.
Eagles O vs. Dolphins D
Philly is following its same model from 2022: a pass-heavy approach in the 1st half and a run-heavier approach in the second half. This model, of course, is contingent on having a second-half lead.
EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel has been outstanding all season long. His nine QB hurries in Week 5 was a single-game league-high in 2023. With Jaelan Phillips having missed some time, Van Ginkel has unquestionably been Miami’s best pass rusher this season. Now he’ll likely be taking snaps against Eagles backup right tackle Jack Driscoll, who struggled in pass pro against the Jets.
- There are 35 QBs with 10+ dropbacks in which they left the pocket in 2023. Jalen Hurts’ numbers/ranks among them:
- 60 dropbacks (T-2nd)
- 30.6 percent completion rate (last)
- 3.1 YPA (34th)
- 49.9 passer rating (29th)
Dolphins O vs. Eagles D
Miami is the most lethal offense in the NFL when it comes to “motion at the snap.” Philadelphia against motion at the snap this season is allowing 6.7 yards per pass, which ranks 20th, and 1.1 yards per run, which ranks 2nd.
Miami’s 8.4 yards per attempt on play-action ranks sixth.
The Eagles’ 6.5 yards per attempt allowed on play action ranks fifth.
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
49ers O vs. Vikings D
Since Brock Purdy became his team’s primary QB in Week 13 of 2022, here is how he ranks among 37 QBs on intermediate passes.
143.2 passer rating (15.5 points higher than the next-highest QB, Jared Goff; the gap between Purdy at No. 1 and Goff at No. 2 is greater than the gap between Goff at No. 2 and Aaron Rodgers at No. 8)
13.7 YPA (2.0 YPA higher than the next-highest QB, Tua Tagovailoa; the gap between Purdy at No. 1 and Tagovailoa at No. 2 is greater than the gap between Tagovailoa at No. 2 and Jalen Hurts at No. 20)
Minnesota has been the most aggressive defense in recent memory when it comes to pressure concepts (both in pre-snap threats and post-snap delivery) and coverage rotations. This includes early downs, not just pass situations. Will they attempt to play this way against the NFC’s best offense?
Vikings O vs. 49ers D
MIN’s 73.6 percent red zone pass rate leads the NFL in 2023.
MIN leads the NFL with 17 drops in 2023 and 8 lost fumbles.
MIN leads the NFL with 99 snaps of six or more pass blockers in 2023.
MIN is last in the NFL in TOP per game (26:14) in 2023.
SF is giving up just 3.6 yards per rush against outside zone (ranks 12th), which the Vikings feature as much as any offense.
The 49ers rotate their safeties post-snap less often than all but 4 teams, but they are allowing just 3.0 yards per play on those snaps, 2nd best only to the Jets.
