Analysis
10/19/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
Dolphins (5-1) at Eagles (5-1)
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Total: 52
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest opened as Philadelphia Eagles -2.5. It then moved to Eagles -2 on Tuesday and back to Eagles -2.5 on Wednesday night.
The total opened at 53 points before quickly dipping to its current mark of 52 points.
Eagles Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
Philadelphia has one of the most talented offenses in football, but it hasn’t peaked yet this season. Jalen Hurts is eighth in the league in passing yards and second among quarterbacks in rushing yards. He’s also quietly tied for second in the league with seven interceptions.
Philadelphia’s offensive line has at least a minor trench advantage against the Miami Dolphins. That’s good news for the Eagles’ run game, which struggled mightily against the Jets last week. D'Andre Swift is fifth in the league in rushing yards and sixth among running backs in targets. The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
A.J. Brown is seventh in the league in targets and receptions but second in receiving yards. Brown is 11th in the league in target share and third in air yards share. Brown is on the short list of Offensive Player of the Year contenders through six weeks.
DeVonta Smith significantly trails Brown in production and usage so far. However, Miami has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Smith is in a strong position for a spike game against the Dolphins.
Miami has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends this year. Among tight ends, Dallas Goedert is eighth in targets, sixth in receptions and ninth in receiving yards.
Dolphins Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Miami’s offense has been historic through the first six weeks. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards and touchdown passes. Entering this contest, Tagovailoa is the MVP co-favorite in betting markets.
Tyreek Hill already has 814 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. Hill is on pace to break the single-season receiving yards record. If he keeps this up, he’ll sneak into the MVP race.
Not only is Miami leading the league in passing yards per game, but they are also the leader in rushing yards. Raheem Mostert is seventh in the league in rushing yards and eighth among running backs in receiving yards.
Due to injuries to De'Von Achane and Jeff Wilson, Mostert’s role has been tremendous in the past few weeks. The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year.
The primary reason for that is the Eagles’ have a premium defensive front. Philadelphia’s defense has a trench advantage in this contest. This contest essentially boils down to Miami’s ability to succeed in the air despite Philadelphia’s pass rush.
That said, Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Hill has been tremendous, but Jaylen Waddle has not yet had 100 yards receiving in a game this season.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on the Eagles, you have three advantages in this matchup. The first is Philadelphia’s skill group is too much for Miami’s struggling defense to handle. The second is that the Eagles are coming off a disappointing loss to the Jets last week.
This is a championship-caliber team in a classic bounce-back spot. The last and most crucial advantage is Philadelphia’s defensive line changing what Miami does offensively.
If you’re betting on the Dolphins, you build that bet around two core concepts. The first is no one can handle Miami’s team speed on offense. Buffalo’s defense did an excellent job against Miami, but they’ve faced each other four times since Hill joined the Dolphins.
The second is that Mike McDaniel is one of the league’s most innovative offensive minds. If anyone can game plan around a disadvantage in the trenches, it’s him.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Dolphins 27
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 15-15
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 14-9
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
