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2023 NFL Week 6: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries to Consider

We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value. 

Week 6 Higher/Lower Entries

Lamar Jackson LOWER than 0.5 Interceptions, Gus Edwards HIGHER than 41.5 rushing yards and Derrick Henry LOWER than 16.5 rushing attempts

6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy

In this week’s London game, the Baltimore Ravens face the Tennessee Titans. While rest advantages are not among the most critical factors in handicapping games, it bears mentioning that the Ravens arrived in London on Monday. In contrast, the Titans flew across the pond on Friday. 

The Ravens’ are positioned nicely to play a ball-control offense if they capture an early lead. In such games, Gus Edwards will see an elevated rushing workload against a slightly above-average rushing defense. However, starting defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart are both questionable. Lamar Jackson becomes less likely to throw an interception when the Ravens establish an early lead.

Multiple factors make Derrick Henry more likely to have 16 or fewer rushing attempts on the offensive side of the ball for the Titans. Henry’s share of the Titans’ rush attempts has steadily decreased all season, with a season-low of 62 percent in week 5.

Tyjae Spears might continue to have an increased role, lowering Henry’s piece of the rushing pie. Additionally, when the Titans play from behind, they will have to pass the ball more often and might abandon Henry's role on the ground. 

David Montgomery HIGHER than 75.5 rushing yards, Baker Mayfield HIGHER than 0.5 interceptions and Ryan Neal HIGHER than 6.5 tackles + assists.

6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy

This entry optimizes for a game where the Detroit Lions control the ball through their dominant rushing game. Without Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery will continue to see almost the entire rushing workload for the Lions.

A Baker Mayfield interception also correlates with increased time of possession for the Lions. Mayfield might attempt more deep passes with higher interception probabilities if the Lions have a lead. If Mayfield throws an interception, the Lions will have another drive to establish the run and burn clock, increasing Montgomery’s rushing workload. 

As Montgomery receives more carries and the Lions control the ball, Ryan Neal becomes more likely to record tackles, as his role as a safety that rotates in the box puts him in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive second level. 

Brian Robinson Jr. LOWER than 61.5 rushing yards, Desmond Ridder LOWER than 202.5 passing yards and Drake London LOWER than 6.5 targets

6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy

This entry optimizes for games where the Atlanta Falcons abandon their passing attack in the second half, and the Washington Commanders must throw the ball to remain competitive. The Falcons’ rushing defense ranks first in EPA/play allowed, 13th in rushing defense success rate and first in rushing defense EPA/play allowed — excluding turnovers — through five weeks.

As evidenced by last week’s defeat against the Chicago Bears, when the Commanders need to get back in a game, they will abandon the run and phase out Brian Robinson Jr.

In games where the Falcons gain early leads, they prefer to dictate the run rather than keep passing. The Commanders’ defense ranks in the league’s bottom quarter in EPA/play allowed through the air (28th) and ground (27th). If Falcons coach Arthur Smith can choose to rush or pass to close a game out against similarly poor rushing and passing defenses, he will likely run the ball instead of airing it out. 

Brian Robinson Jr. LOWER than 61.5 rushing yards, Desmond Ridder LOWER than 202.5 passing yards, Drake London LOWER than 6.5 targets, Bijan Robinson HIGHER than 68.5 rushing yards and Sam Howell HIGHER than 0.5 interceptions

20x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy

As with the above 6x entry within the Falcons and Commanders game, this 20x entry relies on a game script where the Falcons can control the ball and the Commanders abandon their rushing attack. When the Falcons can successfully run to move the ball down the field, Bijan Robinson is likelier to record more than 68.5 rushing yards. 

The Falcons are increasingly likely to run the ball and lower their passing volume if Sam Howell throws at least one interception. Similarly, a Howell interception will force Washington to lean into their passing game even more, lowering Brian Robinson Jr.’s rushing volume.

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