Analysis

10/12/23

10 min read

2023 NFL Week 6: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 6.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history during the past two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 6 Matchups

Broncos vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 16th, Chiefs 26th

After some initial panic about the Kansas City Chiefs’ receiving corps at the start of the season, it’s back to business as usual in Kansas City. The Chiefs are 4-1; the offense ranks top 10 in passing, rushing and receiving Total Points; and outside of a dismal Week 4 performance, Patrick Mahomes has been pretty dang good.

The Denver Broncos, on the other hand, are 1-4 despite getting reasonable play out of an aging Russell Wilson, largely because their defense has been abysmal. They rank 31st in the league in Total Points/play (only the Giants have been worse). Given the circumstances, it’s hard to imagine Mahomes will be outgunned by Wilson, who is in the twilight of his career.

Ravens vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 25th, Titans sixth

The Baltimore Ravens receivers are griefers, pure and simple. So many plays were left on the field in a 17-10 loss against the Steelers, who are now first in the AFC North. Baltimore has looked pretty good outside of a receiving unit that was supposed to be much-improved. Lamar Jackson ranks 10th in Total Points/play, and the Ravens rank in the top half of the league in every Total Points category outside of receiving.

The Tennessee Titans have been a matchup problem for the Ravens in the past, though, and this should be a close game if it turns into an old-school football game – Tennessee ranks third in rushing Total Points and fourth in run defense Total Points on a per-play basis.

Commanders vs. Falcons

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 20th, Falcons ninth

One Atlanta Falcons writer pointed out that Sam Howell is on pace to take 99 sacks this year. The second-year signal caller’s pocket presence is nonexistent, and it’s fair to wonder if he has object permanence. That might not matter much against Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass rush, but his eight turnover-worthy throws might be against the No. 4 coverage unit. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Desmond Ridder, just had the best game of his career from a Total Points perspective (13 after averaging -1.5 per game previously). Still, I’m unwilling to suggest he’s turned a corner yet. This isn’t a game to watch unless you have a rooting interest.

Vikings vs. Bears

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 10th, Bears 15th

This game has the potential to be an episode of Wacky Races. Justin Jefferson may be on IR, but the Minnesota Vikings (seventh) and the Chicago Bears (10th) are in the top 10 in Offensive Total Points/play, while their defenses rank 30th and 29th, respectively. Furthermore, Justin Fields is coming off back-to-back games in which he posted his second- and third-best single-game passing Total Points numbers to date. If a shootout between two 1-4 teams with slapstick defenses interests you, then this game is for you.

Seahawks vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 22nd, Bengals 14th

The Cincinnati Bengals' offensive rankings are pretty dismal, and Joe Burrow has been nursing a calf injury and hasn’t looked like his usual self. He’s reportedly nearing 100 percent, which is good news for Cincinnati, but the Bengals are 2-3 and facing a Seattle Seahawks team that comes off a bye. If Burrow still isn’t at full strength come Sunday, the Bengals may need another standout performance from Ja’Marr Chase – who ranks second in receiving Total Points – to keep their season alive.

49ers vs. Browns

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers fifth, Browns seventh

It feels safe to say that the San Francisco 49ers are hurtling toward the NFC championship game. Their offense ranks second in Total Points, and they just dismantled the league’s No. 1 defense in prime time. The Cleveland Browns come into this game with the fourth-ranked defense, and maybe they’ll have better luck than Dallas did, but this can’t turn into a boat race with P.J. Walker at quarterback. And the 49ers’ defense ranks in the top 10.

Saints vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 23rd, Texans fourth

The Houston Texans are, if nothing else, fun. It’s unlikely they’re satisfied with their record, but they’ve been pretty competitive, and C.J. Stroud looks like a star in the making. He ranks seventh in Total Points/play despite playing in less-than-ideal circumstances. The New Orleans Saints have the No. 1 pass defense by Total Points, so this will be a good test for the rookie. Even if he doesn’t perform flawlessly, Stroud has room for error; the Saints’ offense ranks just 24th in Total Points/play, even after their dismantling of the Patriots last week.

Colts vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: Colts 24th, Jaguars 28th

With Anthony Richardson on IR, Gardner Minshew will start for the Indianapolis Colts, and the former Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback can finally have a real competition with Trevor Lawrence. The latter hasn’t had the breakout year he probably wanted; he ranks 20th in passing Total Points/play through five weeks. The Jaguars come off a quality win against the Bills in London, and they’ve already beaten this Colts team, but Indianapolis ranks better in Total Points on both offense (19 vs. 25) and defense (13 vs. 22).

Panthers vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers eighth, Dolphins 21st

Losing De’Von Achane is a real bummer, but it’s hard to imagine the Miami Dolphins’ offense will fall apart in his absence. Miami ranks top five in all offensive Total Points categories and is first in rushing and blocking Total Points/play. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have been absolutely dismal on offense and rank 32nd in rushing. Things won’t be much easier for them this week; the Dolphins’ defense is starting to round into form and should continue to do so against the toothless Panthers.

Lions vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Lions 12th, Buccaneers 31st

This matchup is arguably the most interesting game of the week. Both teams have top-five passing offenses, as well as top-10 pass rush and pass coverage units. There’s also the narrative of two former No. 1 overall picks playing well after getting second chances with new teams. And more generally, as of right now, this is a playoff matchup. There’s a decent chance for fireworks in this one, and either team could win, but Dan Campbell’s fourth-down aggression could very well make the difference here.

Patriots vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Patriots 27th, Raiders 30th

The New England Patriots have scored 18 total points in their past three games, Mac Jones has been benched each of the last two weeks and the most spoiled fanbase in the NFL is growing increasingly restless. The Las Vegas Raiders' defense is easily the worst New England has played this year, though, so maybe Patriots fans can once again delude themselves into believing Jones is good, as they did during his rookie year when he made the Pro Bowl as an alternate.

Cardinals vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals first, Rams 11th

There’s nothing like a divisional matchup between two teams who aren’t quite as bad as we thought they’d be. These teams have surprised in their own ways. Matthew Stafford looks healthy and is back to making highlight-reel throws every week, and a largely anonymous defense is comfortably removed from being the worst in the league. Josh Dobbs hasn’t necessarily been good — he ranks 23rd in passing Total Points/play — but he very well might be better than some of the so-called franchise quarterbacks along the eastern seaboard. That said, this is still a sickos game.

Eagles vs. Jets

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles second, Jets 18th

Zach Wilson had a nice little run as a playable quarterback for a few weeks before reverting to his true form against a Broncos defense that ranks 30th in pass coverage. Sunday’s game was one of his worst performances as a pro; he turned in negative Total Points (where the average is about +5) for the 10th time in 27 career games. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t exactly rolled to 5-0 – they’ve had some hiccups on offense – but they’re much better in nearly every phase of the game. The New York Jets’ season from hell should continue.

Giants vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 29th, Bills 17th

The New York Giants have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and their patchwork offensive line ranks dead last in Total Points per play through five weeks of action. The Giants will face a second-ranked Buffalo Bills pass rush that just got Von Miller back from injury. New York will likely be without Daniel Jones this week, although it wouldn’t shock anybody if Tyrod Taylor performed better than Jones has. Jones cannot be released until at least 2025, when his dead cap hit drops from $69.3 million to $22.2 million.

Cowboys vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 13th, Chargers 19th

Regardless of the outcome, the Kellen Moore Bowl is going to produce some takes. Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys are heading back west to face their former offensive coordinator in a game that has big implications. These are two teams that were expected to make the playoffs, and the loser will come out of this with a mediocre record and will have to fight the rest of the way to play in January.

The Cowboys have had mixed success on offense without Moore; they started off hot but have cooled down quite a bit these past few weeks. Meanwhile, Moore has made the most of a fresh start; the Los Angeles Chargers rank ninth in Total Points/play on offense, whereas his old team is currently 16th.

This story was written by Bryce Rossler.

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