Analysis
10/5/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 Game Previews: Stats Leading To Storylines
Andy Benoit and Cody Swartz provide insight into the most impactful games on the 2023 NFL Week 5 slate. The stats provided below provide the storylines going into the games.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Ravens O vs. Steelers D
Lamar Jackson has not played in any of the last 3 games vs. Pittsburgh. His last meeting with them was December 5th, 2021 (a 20 to 19 loss in which he was sacked 7 times).
Lamar Jackson empty rate
2022: 14.8% (his 39.6% success ranked 11th)
2023: 3.5% (a league-low 9 total snaps)
PIT vs. empty is allowing 6.8 yards per play, 24th in NFL.
BAL 2x2 formation rate:
2022: 31.2% (32nd)
2023: 45.3% (10th)
Steelers O vs. Ravens D
The Steelers are averaging 0.3 yards before contact per rushing attempt, which ranks 32nd. (NFL average is about 1.1, ARZ is tops at 2.3, per PFF).
Ravens rank an uncharacteristic 15th in rushing yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.3).
Ravens in sub-packages continue to play almost no dime and all nickel now that they have Roquan Smith paired with Patrick Queen.
Steelers average 4.9 yards allowed per play vs. nickel D, which ranks 19th.
Philadelphia @ LA Rams
Eagles O vs. Rams D
Just 4 Rams defenders have over 25 career NFL starts (that’s including this season): DT Aaron Donald, LB Ernest Jones, CB Ahkello Witherspoon and S Jordan Fuller.
The Rams rank 5th in quarters coverage usage (in their scheme since 2020 they’ve shown quarters presnap but didn’t actually play it any more often than an average NFL team).
Eagles have been the best offense vs. man coverage over the last couple seasons by many metrics. However…
The Rams last season ranked last in man coverage usage by a huge margin and that has mostly continued this season. They play just 8 snaps per game in man coverage, 8th lowest in the NFL.
Eagles this season rank in the middle of the league vs. Quarters coverage by many metrics.
Rams O vs. Eagles D
Puka Nacua has been talked about because he has so many catches, but this passing game has unequivocally been built around Tutu Atwell. Nacua has produced hugely within the context of the Rams offense. Atwell is the one who creates that context.
WR Tutu Atwell has been deployed in motion more than any other player in the league and on those snaps the Rams are averaging almost double the yardage per play compared to the snap when Atwell does not motion.
James Bradberry recently converted to the slot. He’ll be facing either Nacua or maybe even a now-healthy Cooper Kupp.
Rams OL is somewhat makeshift and really struggled with LT Alaric Jackson out and Bears 2022 sixth-rounder Zach Thomas in. Against Indy they moved Joe Noteboom back to LT and started Kevin Dotson at right guard.
In 20 non-PA pass blocking snaps for which he was lined up against EDGE Trey Hendrickson in Week 3, OT Zach Thomas allowed four sacks and five total pressures.
Kansas City @ Minnesota
Chiefs O vs. Vikings D
Will Flores go against the grain and use his “all-out attack” schematic approach again?
Blitz rate vs. Patrick Mahomes:
2022: 28.1%
2023: 14.3% (lowest in the NFL)
Vikings blitz rate in 2023: 65% of all snaps
Vikings O vs. Chiefs D
MIN has turned the ball over multiple times in all four games in 2023, six straight regular season games dating back to 2022, and eight of the last nine.
MIN’s in 2022 threw play-action on 56.5% in of passes (6th). This season it’s up to 63.0% (2nd).
Chiefs are allowing 6.8 yards per play on play-action – 21st in the NFL.
Based on Spagnuolo's history and recent outings, top CB L’Jarius Sneed will likely travel with Justin Jefferson and receive double-team help in man coverages (especially in the red area).
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Cowboys O vs. 49ers D
Dak Prescott play-action numbers in the Divisional Round Game vs. SF last year: 9 attempts, 151.4 rating
DAL is 3rd in the NFL in success rate on screens (45.0%) in 2023.
Teams throwing deep passes vs. SF in 2023: 3-14-90-1-2, 38.1 rating
49ers O vs. Cowboys D
Without CB Trevon Diggs in Week 3, DAL played the exact same rate of man coverage (42%) as the first two games (42%). And playing with a lead for much of the New England game, their man coverage rate increased to 52%.
Dallas plays a lot of man on early downs. Will they do that against a Niners offense that motions on over 70% of 1st/2nd downs? (Vulnerable to run game easy releases and misdirection designs.)
Brock Purdy made some superb plays on the Thursday Night game vs. New York a couple of weeks ago, but overall he has been a little hot and cold under pass rush pressure. Concern against a dominant Cowboys pass rush?
Green Bay @ Las Vegas
Packers O vs. Raiders D
Jordan Love has 19 targets of 20+ yards, T-4th most in the NFL. But his rating on those plays is 43.8 which ranks 32nd of 35.
BUT the Raiders have allowed 14.2 yards per play on pass attempts over 20 yards (ranked 22nd).
Raiders 1st-round rookie DE Tyree Wilson has the worst pass rushing numbers in the NFL by almost any metric (basically 0 wins on any snaps), his film has been unbelievably underwhelming.
Raiders have been in nickel on 89% of snaps, second most only to Buffalo (99%).
GB has recently increased its “13” personnel usage…would they do that here?
Raiders O vs. Packers D
Green Bay has played fire zone on 34.2% of non-2-minute 1st/2nd down snaps this season, 2nd most behind only MIN (37.1%).
Raiders vs. fire zone are averaging 6.9 yards per play, 9th best in the NFL.
Raiders lead the league with 24 snaps of 6+ OL. And they are averaging 5.0 yards per play on these snaps (6th best).
Chicago @ Washington
Bears O vs. Commanders D
WAS’s 29.3% success rate allowed vs. 11 personnel is the 5th best in the NFL in 2023.
Luke Getsy has taken a lot of criticism, but the Bears have had some outstanding route combinations to beat predicted coverages this season (the execution, however, has often not been there). The Bears know what they’re likely to get from Washington: a heavy dose of quarters coverage.
Commanders O vs. Bears D
Commanders have given up an NFL-high 24 sacks. Bears defense has registered an NFL-low 2 sacks.
CHI’s 15.8% pass blitz rate in 2023 is the lowest in the NFL. They do, however, have the NFL’s 7th-highest stunt rate (32%). 32%
However, they are allowing 9.4 yards per play on snaps where they run a stunt, which ranks 30th 31st in the league (NYG 11.1).
Sam Howell’s deep pass rate (6.4%) is lower than every QB except Bryce Young (4.9%). But Howell on deep passes is 4/9 for 129 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, with a 128.2 passer rating (8th best).
Will Washington throw downfield more against a putrid Bears pass rush?
Washington has already run 53 plays from 1x3 sets this season after running just 91 all of last year. They rank 1st in 1x3 usage.
1x3 was a big formation for Eric Bienenemy’s Chiefs. Have to figure 1x3 will be featured against such a zone-heavy D like Chicago’s.
Bears are allowing 9.5 yards per play against 1x3, worse than every team except Denver (9.6).
Washington ranks 7th averaging 5.2 yards per snap out of 1x3 (NFL average is 4.0).
