Fantasy
1/6/24
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 18 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 18 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
DOUBLE STACKS
- Stack: QB Justin Fields WR DJ Moore TE Cole Kmet
- Runback: RB Aaron Jones
Justin Fields is playing for his job next season in Chicago, and the Bears have won four of their past five games. The Green Bay Packers are a team he's never beaten, and the motivation is to play spoiler and knock out the "big brother" from the postseason. If Fields is going to be great, it will come from his two top targets: DJ Moore and Cole Kmet.
You can see in the chart below that they combine for almost 50 percent of the targets when facing two-high coverages. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry will play this soft zone coverage, and as a result, Fields will have an opportunity to show he can play with rhythm. If it's not there, I expect Fields to be running right away. I will lean on the rival playing to be the spoiler on a slate where many teams aren't playing for much.
The Bears' defense has improved substantially lately, but there are two areas where I still see them struggle: yards after the catch and teams throwing over their zone coverage. Instead of chasing the deep ball, I will chase Aaron Jones, who is in a perfect spot to have a high reception total and total control of the backfield. I do not anticipate Jones being a great rusher against the defense, but he should dominate goal-line usage and catch north of five passes in this game.
- Stack: QB Geno Smith WR DK Metcalf WR Tyler Lockett
- Runback: RB James Conner AND TE Trey McBride
Cover 4 is the primary coverage scheme for the Arizona Cardinals, and Geno Smith tends to target his top options against that defensive look. DK Metcalf currently ranks sixth in the NFL in yards against Cover 4, and the routes with Drew Lock have kept him out of the top-tier yards per route run players.
On the other hand, Tyler Lockett is fourth in the NFL in receptions against Cover 4 looks. To secure a victory in the GPP, Smith will likely need explosive performances from at least two of his pass-catchers. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba provides salary relief, Lockett is the more reliable choice in a position to make the playoffs.
I aim to accumulate all the points from the Cardinals and hope they play with a lead, forcing the Seahawks to adopt a more pass-heavy strategy. This can be achieved through James Conner and Trey McBride, who have dominated the touches for the team. Conner is coming off a 26-carry game where he ran for 128 yards against one of the better run defenses in the NFL.
- Stack: QB Jake Browning WR Ja’Marr Chase TE Tanner Hudson
The Cleveland Browns have decided to rest their key players, creating an opportunity for Jake Browning to showcase his skills and potentially secure a spot on a roster for the upcoming season. Browning will likely face a significant number of single-high coverage looks against a Jim Schwartz defense, with an expectation of normal blitz rates.
This scenario should provide Ja'Marr Chase with the advantage of man coverage against backup defensive backs, presenting him with the opportunity for an explosive game.
Tanner Hudson remains a valuable option for this slate, consistently targeted at a high rate with Browning at the helm. While there's uncertainty about how the Browns will handle the running back situation this weekend, Chase Brown might be a preferable choice over Hudson if there's news about Brown receiving a substantial number of touches. Currently, I'm not considering running this game back due to the uncertainty surrounding playtime from the Browns' side.
Mini-Stacks
- Atlanta at New Orleans
- RB Bijan Robinson WR Chris Olave
Bijan Robinson dominated in the first matchup, and I have to believe they will give him plenty of work for a chance to play in the playoffs. The New Orleans Saints' run defense showed up last weekend against the Buccaneers, but the Atlanta Falcons are a better rushing team and a bit more complicated.
The Falcons could not defend Chris Olave in the first matchup, and I don’t believe they will have answers for him in this one. The Falcons trust A.J. Terrell against teams' No. 1 wide receivers, and Olave has shown he can win.
- Tampa Bay at Carolina
- RB Rachaad White WR DJ Chark
The Carolina Panthers' run defense has been awful this season, and it gives up a ton of touchdowns. Rachaad White has a dominant role in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield, and the Buccaneers need to win for a chance at the playoffs. I don't want to go to the Mike Evans side of the game here because I don't think they will get much push from the Panthers' offense.
DJ Chark is the main interest in a run back because he gets a lot of work down the field and on the sidelines. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' boundary corners are the ones to attack, and you want to stay away from their front seven.
- Philadelphia at New York Giants
- WR AJ Brown WR Jalin Hyatt
DeVonta Smith is in a walking boot, and the New York Giants employ a defensive strategy involving substantial man coverage and blitzes. Throughout the season, A.J. Brown has been targeted on 50 percent of his routes versus Cover 1 and averages an impressive 5.5 yards per route run against it. Both these figures rank at the top in the NFL, and even if he plays only a half, he could still accumulate eight targets.
Tyrod Taylor, with an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt, is consistently launching the ball down the field. The Giants feature two primary deep threats in Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton. While either could be a viable option in this matchup, my preference leans toward the rookie in the season's final game.
- Jacksonville at Tennessee
- WR Christian Kirk WR DeAndre Hopkins
Both websites mispriced Christian Kirk, and he will be one of the chalkiest players ever for a slate this size. Calvin Ridley becomes a big leverage play, but at the price, it’s hard to ignore Kirk.
DeAndre Hopkins is going for incentives, but he’s getting a ton of targets and is in a good matchup. In the small sample size with QB Ryan Tannehill this season, Hopkins almost has a 40 percent target share against the primary coverage of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
One-Offs
- WR CeeDee Lamb or RB Tony Pollard
The Dallas Cowboys are playing for the No. 2 seed in the NFC and have a chance to avoid facing the San Francisco 49ers until the NFC Championship game. The Washington Commanders are currently struggling, and I believe the Cowboys will be able to exploit their weaknesses, providing ample opportunities for their star players in this matchup.
With Montez Sweat and Chase Young traded, the Commanders' perimeter run defense has been subpar. Conversely, Tony Pollard's recent performance has been underwhelming, and the recency bias might lower his expected ownership.
While CeeDee Lamb is considered the best overall play on the slate, numerous options around his price range could potentially outperform him. I plan to include only one of these players in lineups where I don’t anticipate high ownership, and I fully expect Lamb to be the most popular player on the slate.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Justin Fields | CHI | GB | $7,200 | $8,400 |
| QB | Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| QB | Jake Browning | CIN | CLE | $5,700 | $7,400 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | CAR | $7,600 | $7,700 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | ATL | $7,500 | $7,200 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | PHI | $6,900 | $7,100 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | NYG | $6,800 | $6,900 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | NO | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | WAS | $6,500 | $7,600 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | ARI | $6,500 | $7,000 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | GB | CHI | $6,300 | $6,800 |
| RB | James Conner | ARI | SEA | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| RB | Khalil Herbert | CHI | GB | $5,700 | $7,000 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS | DAL | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| RB | Jordan Mason | SF | LA | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WAS | $9,300 | $10,000 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | NYG | $8,700 | $8,200 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | MIN | $8,600 | $8,800 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN | DET | $8,500 | $9,000 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | CAR | $7,400 | $8,400 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | CLE | $7,300 | $7,800 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | ARI | $7,200 | $7,600 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | GB | $7,000 | $8,000 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | ATL | $6,700 | $7,300 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | TEN | $6,500 | $6,900 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | CAR | $6,300 | $6,900 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | JAX | $6,100 | $6,800 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | TB | $6,000 | $6,400 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | GB | CHI | $5,800 | $6,100 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | GB | CHI | $5,700 | $7,100 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | ARI | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | DAL | $5,500 | $6,900 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | DET | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | DAL | WAS | $5,200 | $6,300 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | NO | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | ARI | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| WR | Christian Watson | GB | CHI | $4,700 | $6,500 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | ATL | $4,700 | $6,000 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | CHI | $4,600 | $5,500 |
| WR | Tyler Boyd | CIN | CLE | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | DAL | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| WR | K.J. Osborn | MIN | DET | $4,100 | $5,000 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | PHI | $4,000 | $5,700 |
| WR | Cedric Tillman | CLE | CIN | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | TB | $3,700 | $5,700 |
| WR | Trey Palmer | TB | CAR | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| WR | David Bell | CLE | CIN | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| WR | A.T. Perry | NO | ATL | $3,300 | $4,600 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | PHI | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| WR | Trenton Irwin | CIN | CLE | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| WR | Zach Pascal | ARI | SEA | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| WR | Andrei Iosivas | CIN | CLE | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| WR | Austin Watkins Jr. | CLE | CIN | $3,000 | $4,000 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | DET | MIN | $3,000 | $5,100 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | TEN | $3,000 | $4,000 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | SEA | $6,000 | $6,700 |
| TE | Evan Engram | JAX | TEN | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | WAS | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | CHI | GB | $4,500 | $6,300 |
| TE | Tanner Hudson | CIN | CLE | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| TE | Johnny Mundt | MIN | DET | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| TE | Noah Fant | SEA | ARI | $2,900 | $4,900 |
| DST | Cowboys | DAL | WAS | $4,100 | $5,000 |
| DST | Buccaneers | TB | CAR | $3,900 | $4,400 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | NE | $3,700 | $4,600 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | NYJ | $3,600 | $4,500 |
| DST | Raiders | LV | DEN | $3,300 | $3,700 |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | TEN | $3,200 | $4,400 |
| DST | Falcons | ATL | NO | $3,000 | $3,500 |
| DST | Titans | TEN | JAX | $2,900 | $3,800 |
| DST | Chargers | LAC | KC | $2,800 | $3,300 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | PHI | $2,300 | $3,400 |
