NFL Analysis

1/4/24

10 min read

2023 NFL Week 18: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 18.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 18 MATCHUPS

Steelers vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 28th, Ravens 30th

The Pittsburgh Steelers need to attack the Baltimore Ravens’ run defense if they want to sneak into the playoffs. The Ravens are strong across the board in our metrics, with the exception of their run defense.

While the Ravens have locked up the AFC's No. 1 seed, they will look to keep the Steelers out of the playoffs with their dominant, balanced offense and their ability to bring pressure as well as cover on defense.

Texans vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Texans 7th, Colts 31st

The Indianapolis Colts will look to exploit the last-ranked Houston Texans’ coverage unit in this win-and-in game. Gardner Minshew has provided a spark and launched the Colts into the league's top half in Passing Total Points.

On the other side, the Texans must protect C.J. Stroud against a tough Colts pass rush. The Texans’ blocking ranking is concerning in this matchup, but the Colts struggle to stop the run or cover on the back end, so a well-balanced, quick-passing attack could succeed.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Buccaneers 27th, Panthers 11th

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quest for a division title will face a minor final test against an inept Carolina Panthers team.

The Panthers struggle across the board on offense and, with the exception of a middle-of-the-road run defense, struggle on defense. 

Bryce Young will end his rookie season against a tough Buccaneers secondary, and will likely receive little help in the run game as Tampa Bay is even tougher against the run.

Browns vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 12th, Bengals 14th

The Cleveland Browns locked up the No. 5 seed. They should their top-ranked run defense to finish strong against the Cincinnati Bengals.

While pride may be the only thing on the line, the Bengals must get the ball out quickly to avoid a ferocious Browns pass rush and exploit a mediocre coverage unit.

Vikings vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 18th, Lions 6th

The Minnesota Vikings’ slim playoff hopes will be tested against a Detroit Lions team that ranks in the top half of the league in every ranking.

The Lions’ balanced offense can attack and pick apart the Vikings' defense any way it sees fit, as it has an advantage on every front.

If the Detroit defense can contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings might not have enough firepower to overwhelm the Lions’ defense.

Jets vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 20th, Patriots 26th

The New England Patriots offense finds a tough final match-up against a balanced, albeit wasted, New York Jets defense. The Jets will have to air it out a bit to exploit a struggling pass defense.

Both offenses are at risk of ranking last in the league in multiple offensive categories after this game. So don’t expect more than a few candles, let alone fireworks.

Falcons vs. Saints

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 16th, Saints 21st

The top two coverage units in the league square off, but the New Orleans Saints hold a significant edge in the passing ranking.

Derek Carr will need to be sharp against a tough Atlanta Falcons coverage unit. However, the Falcons struggle to generate pressure. If the Saints can protect Carr, he could find holes in the defense.

The Falcons' ability to take away the run is a bit of a waste against New Orleans’ limited ground attack. Still, the Falcons' rushing attack could be the difference needed to win. The Saints’ run defense is vulnerable, and the Falcons will want to keep this a low-scoring game to minimize the Saints' passing advantage.

Jaguars vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 23rd, Titans 5th

The path to an upset starts with the run game. The Tennessee Titans have a stout run defense, while the Jacksonville Jaguars have a below-average run game with near-the-bottom blocking numbers. 

The Titans also run the ball extremely well, and the Jaguars struggle to stop the run. Controlling the clock will be key for the Titans, whose porous coverage unit could be exploited.

This game could come down to a couple of key plays, so it is important to note the Titans have a significant edge in fourth-down decision-making.

Bears vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 8th, Packers 2nd

The Green Bay Packers matchup favorably on paper against the Chicago Bears. They have top-10 passing and receiving metrics against a so-so coverage unit. They also have a considerable blocking vs. pass rush advantage on offense.

Week 18 division rival games are tricky, however. 

There is some opportunity for this game to be a shootout. The Bears’ run defense could force Jordan Love to become more one-dimensional, and a resurgent Justin Fields faces a Packers’ coverage unit that is far from impressive in its own right. 

While the Packers should put themselves in the playoffs, stranger things have happened (see Week 18 of last season).

Eagles vs. Giants

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles 1st, Giants 24th

The New York Giants’ rankings are an eye-sore, but the Philadelphia Eagles are also lower than anticipated in several metrics.

Each of the three Eagles’ defensive categories ranks in the league's bottom half, and their rushing rank is not as high as expected. Fortunately, the Giants' defense is a sieve, and their offense is ranks last in receiving and blocking.

It might not be enough to win the division, but the Eagles should get their groove back.

Cowboys vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 9th, Commanders 19th

The Washington Commanders do not have a favorable matchup on either side of the ball. Their impressive rushing ranking will be challenged by an above-average Dallas Cowboys’ run defense.

With a division title on the line, the Cowboys will look to repeat their earlier matchup against the Commanders. That game included Dak Prescott’s top-ranked passing attack feasting on the Commanders’ coverage unit.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 22nd, Cardinals 3rd

Both rushing attacks should find success, as this is a battle of the two lowest-ranked run defenses in the league.

The Seattle Seahawks have an outside chance at the playoffs and could exploit an Arizona Cardinals defense that struggles to stop the run or get after the quarterback.

Being eliminated from contention did not stop the Cardinals from winning last week, and they have an extremely favorable matchup, bringing the No. 1-ranked rushing attack against the next-to-last run defense.

Chiefs vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 25th, Chargers N/A

The Kansas City Chiefs would have an advantage on both sides of the ball, but with minimal on the line for either team and Patrick Mahomes sitting, the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense gets a break.

The Chargers' defense struggled against the run and the pass, and their running game is a no-show. To top it off, the Chargers' offensive line will be tested greatly against an elite Chiefs pass-rushing unit.

Broncos vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 15th, Raiders 29th

The AFC West is not the division to watch this week.

Both teams can focus on next season as the Las Vegas Raiders try to get their lifeless running game going against a sub-par Denver Broncos run defense.

The Broncos could find some success in the passing game against a Raiders defense that struggles to lock down the back end.

Rams vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 13th, 49ers 10th

With the NFC's No. 1 seed locked up, the San Francisco 49ers will give their elite offense a rest against a mediocre Los Angeles Rams defense.

The Rams do a decent job against the run but struggle to generate pressure or cover down the field. This is not ideal when going against the third-ranked blocking and top-ranked receiving units, even without the starting QB.

The Rams have an advantage running the ball against a below-average 49ers run defense, so the game can be shortened a bit that way.

Bills vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Bills 4th, Dolphins 17th

Both teams have some elite units, so playing for the division title on Sunday night is perfect. This is easily the best game of the week.

The Miami Dolphins’ top-ranked blocking unit will be tested against a Buffalo Bills defense strong against the run and gets after the quarterback. The Dolphins’ offensive balance will be key to strategically choosing their battles against a good coverage unit.

The Bills line will also be tested against the top-ranked pass rushing unit in the league, albeit one now without Bradley Chubb after losing Jaelan Phillips earlier in the season. The Bills' run game should find some success against a solid but not exceptional Dolphins run defense.

The biggest key to this game could be the Bills receiving corps, who have struggled, matching up against a good Dolphins coverage unit. Both teams can have explosive plays, which could come down right to the end.

This article was written by Jeff Dean.

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Sports Info Solutions

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