NFL Analysis

12/28/23

9 min read

2023 NFL Week 17: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

SHARE:

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Email
• Copy permalink to clipboard https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-nfl-week-17-biggest-matchups-mismatches/ Copied to clipboard

Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) generates a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 17.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-Down Decision Ranks are based on the coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 17 MATCHUPS

Jets vs. Browns

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 19th, Browns 11th

This week’s games kick off with a Thursday night matchup between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. Both teams have top-10 run defenses and top-six pass rush units, but the Jets' offensive line ranks last in the league. The Browns should be able to exploit this massive advantage in the trenches. Although the season-long numbers are skewed from early-season struggles, Cleveland has the clear upper hand when it comes to throwing the ball.

Lions vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Lions 7th, Cowboys 9th

Saturday night’s prime time matchup features two fairly evenly matched teams that could play deep into January. The Dallas Cowboys have been virtually unstoppable at home this year and get this game in the comfort of AT&T Stadium, but the Detroit Lions have proven to be a tough game for any opponent (except the Ravens). This game has heavy implications for Dallas for the NFC East crown. 

Dolphins vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Dolphins 16th, Ravens 30th

In perhaps the best and most important game this week, the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens in a game that could determine who locks up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race. Both teams should have advantages running the ball on offense (top-five run games against middling run defenses), and both excel at rushing the passer and covering the pass on the back end. The Dolphins have the edge in passing the ball on the paper, but MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson can never be counted out. 

Patriots vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Patriots 27th, Bills 3rd

The Buffalo Bills get this game at home against their division rival New England Patriots and hold the advantage almost across the board. The Patriots have a solid run defense that could slow the Bills down on the ground, but Josh Allen has been lethal over the second half of the season. 

Falcons vs. Bears

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 17th, Bears 14th

This matchup features two more teams that look fairly evenly matched on paper, but a closer look exposes some areas that can be exploited. While both the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears struggle to pass the ball and have top-five run defenses by Total Points per play, the Falcons' pass defense ranks second in the NFL this season and sports the biggest mismatch of this game.

Both teams struggle mightily at rushing the passer, but the Atlanta secondary, led by Jesse Bates and A.J. Terrell, should afford the Falcons' defensive line a bit extra time to get after Justin Fields and alter this contest.

Titans vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Titans 5th, Texans 8th

The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans have been without their rookie starting quarterbacks in recent weeks, but Will Levis and C.J. Stroud seem on pace to return this week. Both teams boast top-five run defenses, but the Titans’ top-ranked rush attack by Total Points per play is much better than Houston’s mediocre ground game. 

Both teams also have bottom-three pass defenses, but the Texans have a clear advantage passing the ball and should be able to exploit the Tennessee defense more in that area. The Titans’ run game needs to dominate to overcome the Texans' aerial attack this week. 

Raiders vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Raiders 29th, Colts 31st

This matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts features two teams coming off completely opposite weeks. Indianapolis holds an advantage when rushing the passer, but the Las Vegas offensive line is extremely game (ranked fourth in Total Points per play).

Meanwhile, the Colts' offensive line, which has struggled throughout the season, hopes to get RT Braden Smith back this week, but should rookie Blake Freeland draw another start, look out for Maxx Crosby to leave his mark on this game in a major way.

Panthers vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers 6th, Jaguars 23rd

The Jacksonville Jaguars have halted all momentum and lost four straight games but are offered a “get right” game against the Carolina Panthers.

Part of the reason for the Jaguars’ slide has been discontinuity on the left side of the offensive line, where LT Cam Robinson has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a suspension. Robinson could return this week to give Jacksonville a big boost (albeit against a poor pass rush). However, if he and Trevor Lawrence cannot play, the Jaguars' slide could continue.

Rams vs. Giants

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 13th, Giants 24th

The Los Angeles Rams have been electric on offense as of late. Los Angeles holds an advantage in every aspect of the game by our Total Points per play metric, and with the way they the team has been playing recently, this game against the New York Giants should be an open-and-shut one. This matchup appears one-sided in favor of the Rams. 

Cardinals vs. Eagles

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals 4th, Eagles 1st

This is another game that looks like it could be a one-sided beatdown, even with the Philadelphia Eagles’ recent struggles. The Arizona Cardinals are ranked No. 2 in rushing and have a respectable pass defense, but the Eagles get this game at home and hold sizable advantages in almost every other area. 

Saints vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 20th, Bucs 26th

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a matchup with big-time implications for the NFC South division crown and the playoffs. Look out for the spectacular matchup between the Buccaneers' pass-catching corps (third in Total Points per play) and the Saints’ top-ranked pass-coverage unit. (It might not have the same juice as normal if Marshon Lattimore can’t return to man up vs. Mike Evans.)

Tampa Bay’s offense has been humming recently largely due to running back Rachaad White, and the unit has a good matchup against New Orleans’ 20th-ranked run defense. 

49ers vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers 10th, Commanders 18th

The San Francisco 49ers, despite being handled by Baltimore last week, are still one of the best teams in the NFL and draw a matchup against the lowly Washington Commanders. Washington could exploit a mismatch with its top-three run game against the 22nd-ranked San Francisco run defense, but that’s Washington's only advantage. 

The 49ers' offense should have ample opportunity to operate, and the team's defensive front has a dream matchup against a Washington offensive line that has been dreadful all season. 

Steelers vs. Seahawks

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 28th, Seahawks 22nd

This game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks has high stakes for both teams' playoff hopes. Pittsburgh’s offense exploded last week behind Mason Rudolph's arm, while Seattle has rattled off back-to-back big-time wins to claw back into a wild-card spot. 

When Pittsburgh has the ball, expect the Steelers to attack Seattle’s bottom-three run defense with their running back duo: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have fantastic pass catchers, but the Pittsburgh pass coverage unit is stout. Keep an eye on T.J. Watt, who has a juicy pass rush matchup against Abraham Lucas.

Chargers vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Chargers N/A, Broncos 21st

This game between disappointing AFC West teams features two backup quarterbacks, as Jarrett Stidham has been named the Denver Broncos' starter for the remainder of the season. Denver has an advantage on the ground against the 27th-ranked run defense of the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have proven to be the worst run offense in the NFL, but the unit might be able to produce against a poor Denver run-stopping unit.

Bengals vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 12th, Chiefs 25th

The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs are each looking to rebound from ugly losses to division foes in games most would have thought they had the upper hand in. Both teams have good matchups regarding running the ball on offense, but the Chiefs’ third-ranked pass rush has a big advantage over Cincinnati's 22nd-ranked blocking unit. Likewise, Kansas City’s eighth-ranked pass coverage unit should swallow up the Bengals’ 23rd-ranked receivers if Ja’Marr Chase can’t make it back for the game.

Packers vs. Vikings

Fourth-down decisions: Packers 2nd, Vikings 15th

In a matchup between two NFC North teams right on the edge of a wild-card berth, we have a fierce rivalry in prime time on Sunday night. The Minnesota Vikings will likely be without rookie standout WR Jordan Addison but will have Justin Jefferson. The Vikings' offense will face a Green Bay Packers secondary that ranks 28th in coverage and will now be without star corner Jaire Alexander after his coin toss shenanigans last week. 

When Green Bay is on offense, the Packers will have opportunities through the air against a vulnerable Vikings secondary, especially if rookie WR Jayden Reed can return this week. 

This article was written by Jeremy Percy.

---

Sports Info Solutions

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram