Betting
12/30/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 Betting Preview For Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article I’ll discuss how I’m treating various situations in each of those formats.
Cowboys vs. Lions
Spread: Cowboys -6
Total: 52
Winner Pools: Expect the Dallas Cowboys to be used in 75 percent of entries. I will use Dallas in nearly all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: Despite the six-point spread, this contest should be avoided in survivor whenever possible.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Detroit Lions 23
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Total: 46.5
Winner Pools: Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. If the Miami Dolphins had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle active, I would have been 50/50 on this game. I’ll use Baltimore in at least two-thirds of my entries as things stand now.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Dolphins 20
Commanders vs. 49ers
Spread: Commanders +13.5
Total: 50
Winner Pools: Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in at least 95 percent of entries. I will use San Francisco in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: Nothing is safe in survivor, but the 49ers are close in a bounce back spot.
Score Prediction: 49ers 42, Washington Commanders 13
Colts vs. Raiders
Spread: Colts -3.5
Total: 42.5
Winner Pools: Expect both of these teams to be used in nearly 50 percent of entries. I will take the Indianapolis Colts in roughly 75 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Las Vegas Raiders 17
Giants vs. Rams
Spread: Giants +5.5
Total: 43.5
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Rams to be used in 90 percent of entries. I will use the Rams in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: The Rams have won five of their last six with their lone loss coming against the Ravens, in Baltimore, in overtime. Los Angeles is a reasonable survivor option this late in the season.
Score Prediction: Rams 27, New York Giants 13
Bills vs. Patriots
Spread: Bills -14
Total: 40
Winner Pools: Expect the Buffalo Bills to be used in 95 percent of entries. I’m going to use Buffalo in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have Buffalo, which you probably don’t, this is the spot to use them.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, New England Patriots 13
Texans vs. Titans
Spread: Texans -4
Total: 44
Winner Pools: Expect the Texans to be used in 85 percent of entries. I will play Houston in all of my entries, even though Tennessee is a reasonable leverage option.
Survivor Pools: If your survivor options are thin this week, Houston is playable.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 20
Eagles vs. Cardinals
Spread: Eagles -12
Total: 48.5
Winner Pools: Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be used in 95 percent of entries. I think the Eagles will win this game, but I’ll sprinkle the Arizona Cardinals in some of my larger pools as a leverage option. Overall, I’ll play Philadelphia in roughly 90 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have the Eagles, they are usable this week and next week. That said, whether or not the Eagles play all of their starters could be a factor against the Giants next week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Cardinals 24
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Total: 42
Winner Pools: Expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be used in 90 percent of entries. The New Orleans Saints are unreliable but a good leverage option based on their expected usage. I will play New Orleans in nearly half of my entries this week.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Saints 23, Buccaneers 20
Bears vs. Falcons
Spread: Bears -2.5
Total: 38
Winner Pools: Expect the Chicago Bears to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. I think the Bears will likely win this game, but 75 percent is a little too high for this team. I will play the Bears in closer to two-thirds of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Bears 23, Atlanta Falcons 16
Jaguars vs. Panthers
Spread: Jaguars -4
Total: 36.5
Winner Pools: Expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. The Carolina Panthers have become an interesting leverage option since Trevor Lawrence has been ruled out. I will use Carolina in approximately 40 percent of my entries, maybe a little more.
Survivor Pools: The Jaguars are no longer a viable option with C.J. Beathard under center.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Panthers 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Total: 41
Winner Pools: Expect the Seattle Seahawks to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. I’m going to lower my exposure to Seattle slightly, down to 70 percent.
Survivor Pools: Seattle is not safe, but if your options are thin they are playable against Mason Rudolph’s Steelers.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Spread: Chiefs -6.5
Total: 44
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. The Cincinnati Bengals are an interesting leverage option, considering how poorly Kansas City has played recently. That said, I’ll take Patrick Mahomes against Jake Browning in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have the Chiefs, there is some danger that they rest starters next week.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bengals 13
Broncos vs. Chargers
Spread: Broncos -3.5
Total: 37
Winner Pools: Expect the Denver Broncos to be used in more than 80 percent of entries. The benching of Russell Wilson makes this my least favorite game on the slate. The Los Angeles Chargers can’t be trusted in their current form, but the state of the Broncos isn’t exactly reliable right now. I’ll play Denver in roughly 65 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you’re options are thin, Denver is a last resort type of option.
Score Prediction: Broncos 17, Chargers 13
Vikings vs. Packers
Spread: Vikings -1
Total: 43.5
Winner Pools: Expect the Minnesota Vikings to be used in 55 percent of entries. I will bet against Jaren Hall by taking the Green Bay Packers in all but one or two of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Vikings 20
