Fantasy

12/20/23

11 min read

2023 NFL Week 16 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

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It’s officially the semifinals in our fantasy leagues, and the first round has caused some adjustments in the dynasty rankings.

If your league doesn’t have a trade deadline, it’s the perfect time to use some of the adjustments to your advantage. If it does have a trade deadline, it’s a great time to get ahead of your offseason plans.

Either way, enjoy this week’s dynasty rankings.

Week 16 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Four 

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Fourth-Round Pick

Big QB Movers

Brock Purdy – ninth (previously 13th)

Brock Purdy is long overdue for his flowers — he's the QB3 on the season with 23.7 points per game. He’s doing that on the back of a league-leading 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt, league-leading 7.6 percent passing touchdown rate and league-leading 9.9 yards per attempt.

He’s also posting the second-highest passing points per game among quarterbacks, despite being on an offense that’s last in pass attempts.

You can point to the weapons and scheme Purdy plays with, which help, but discrediting him is a disservice. Jimmy Garoppolo never led the league in any of those metrics and never posted a 20-point-per-game season in San Francisco.

Purdy is absolutely deserving of being a top-10 dynasty quarterback.

Baker Mayfield – 20th (previously 22nd)

The closer we get to the offseason, the more apparent it becomes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will give Baker Mayfield a contract extension. This past week, he posted a whopping 39.2 passing points per game — courtesy of 16.5 adjusted yards per attempt and a 14.3 percent passing touchdown rate.

Mayfield has been quite serviceable, standing as the QB16 with 19.6 points per game and 18.6 passing points per game. That ranks inside the top 12 among quarterbacks.

He doesn't carry an immense ceiling, partly due to a lack of rushing production, but it’s hard not to envision him as a starting quarterback for the foreseeable future with fringe QB1 upside.

Running Back Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big RB Movers

De’Von Achane – seventh (previously fourth)

In almost every game De’Von Achane has played at least 10 percent of the snaps, he produced at least 20 fantasy points. But in the past two weeks, he was held to just 12.1 and 9.2 fantasy points. He hadn’t handled less than 40 percent of the carries in those games until the past two weeks, which is why Achane’s ranking has fallen.

With that being said, Achane is still clearly a top-eight dynasty running back. He’s the RB4 with 18.7 points per game, which would be the sixth-highest by a rookie running back ever — trailing Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Matt Forte, Alvin Kamara and Doug Martin.

That’s something Achane has accomplished by posting just a 32.7 percent carry percentage, showing he doesn’t need a huge workload for elite production.

But he’s shown in his collegiate profile that he can handle a large workload, which helps give him one of the highest upsides in fantasy football. 

James Cook – 15th (previously 28th)

In the past four weeks, James Cook has posted 24.1 points per game, the second-highest mark by any running back in that span (trailing Christian McCaffrey). I’ve clearly been too low on Cook, yet I’m still hesitant to rank him as a dynasty RB1.

He’s posting 15.2 points per game and would be the second running back in the past four seasons to score at least 15 points per game without holding at least a 50 percent carry percentage or a 10 percent target share.

There are still intriguing aspects to Cook’s profile, such as his strong receiving efficiency, but his profile as a whole is far from bulletproof.

Ty Chandler – 38th (previously 56th)

Due to Alexander Mattison’s injury that kept him sidelined for Week 15, Ty Chandler was given an opportunity to be the lead back for the Minnesota Vikings, and he did not disappoint.

He handled 76.7 percent of the carries and produced 4.40 yards per team rush attempt, a mark Mattison failed to reach all season. Chandler also earned an 11.8 percent target share and produced 0.74 yards per team pass attempt.

This helped Chandler get to 24.7 fantasy points on the week, also a mark Mattison has failed to reach. In fact, Mattison hasn’t even reached 18 fantasy points in any week at all this season.

Chandler’s production this past week is something that should keep him on the field, even when Mattison returns.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big WR Movers

Deebo Samuel – 16th (previously 24th)

Deebo Samuel is now up to WR7, averaging 17.4 points per game after a recent surge. He hasn’t scored less than 20 fantasy points in any of his last four games. He’s one of the most efficient wide receivers, and this year is no different. His 2.60 yards per route run only trails Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle.

Samuel is attached to a high-powered offense, and at 27 years old, it’s unlikely his productivity will fall off of a cliff soon. There isn’t one reason why someone at his age, who is posting top-10 production at his position should be ranked outside of the top 20.

Keenan Allen – 22nd (previously 19th)

Keenan Allen is posting a career-high 31.4 percent target share and a career-high 2.60 yards per team pass attempt, leading to a career-high 21.5 points per game. The only wide receiver posting more points per game is Hill, who’s having a season for the ages.

Allen posting these career highs at 31 is quite unfortunate, considering he won’t play with Justin Herbert again until he's 32. As players get to this age, their immediate situation becomes much more important to their dynasty ranking.

Having to wait until 2024 for Allen's situation to improve and for him to be this productive again causes his ranking to fall.

Tight End Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big TE Movers

Trey McBride – third (previously fourth)

Since Zach Ertz went down and Trey McBride took over the full-time role at tight end, he’s been nothing short of excellent. His 20.1 points per game across that span is the highest among all tight ends.

But McBride has been great the entire season, not just in this eight-week sample. It just took an injury for his fantastic per-route peripherals to be thrust into a full-time role.

His per-route peripherals are unmatched. He has posted a 27.6 percent target rate and 2.30 yards per route run, which rank first among all tight ends.

McBride should be considered a top-three dynasty tight end at this point.

Pat Freiermuth – 13th (previously ninth)

Pat Freiermuth undoubtedly has a season to forget thus far, posting the lowest point-per-game output of his career at 8.5. His peripherals have taken a step back from his rookie and sophomore seasons.

Granted, he’s playing in one of the league’s lowest-scoring and least-efficient offenses, but even Freiermuth's 14.7 percent target share is 3.5 percent lower than last season.

This could be the first season of his career he fails to post at least a 20 percent target rate. While it’s been a down year, Freiermuth's first two seasons pointed to a tight end ready for high-end success.

His injury this season likely didn’t help, but there’s still a possibility he will return to that career trajectory.

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Ian Miller

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Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.