Fantasy
12/22/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 16 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
DOUBLE STACKS
- Stack: QB Justin Fields WR DJ Moore WR Tyler Scott
- Runback: TE Trey McBride
Justin Fields emerges as the top quarterback play on the slate, given his robust usage, featuring a combination of ample dropbacks and designed runs. My strategy for Fields involves pairing him with DJ Moore, leveraging Moore's substantial target share and playmaking abilities.
To introduce a unique element, I opt for Tyler Scott over Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney. Scott's increased playing time in recent weeks, running routes on over 60 percent of dropbacks last week, positions him as a speed threat capable of creating big plays, all while allowing substantial salary savings for other top plays.
If Marquise Brown is unavailable, Trey McBride becomes the linchpin of the Arizona Cardinals' passing offense. Considering the Bears' formidable run defense, McBride stands out as the primary option, particularly against their zone coverage, which could result in a plethora of receptions. While not necessitating a forced run back, McBride emerges as the optimal choice in this scenario.
- Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence WR Calvin Ridley TE Evan Engram
- Runback: WR Mike Evans TE Cade Otton
Trevor Lawrence boasts an impressive 9.6 yards per attempt against Cover 3 defenses this season, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers predominantly employ Cover 3. Against this coverage, Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram have collectively commanded over a 50% target share, establishing themselves as the focal points. Given the Buccaneers' tendency to concede big plays throughout the season, this dynamic duo is poised to be the driving force in this matchup.
Anticipating that the Buccaneers will also face Cover 3, I aim to create a unique lineup by overstacking this game. A pivotal big play to Mike Evans is crucial to elevate the game into a potential shootout, and Cade Otton serves as a cost-effective option to help manage salary cap constraints and access top-tier players elsewhere. Rachaad White and Travis Etienne encounter challenging matchups as their teams prioritize stopping the run.
- Stack: QB Geno Smith WR DK Metcalf WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Runback: WR Treylon Burks
The Tennessee Titans have shifted towards playing more two-high coverages, bolstering their secondary in several recent games. However, the challenge in this matchup is that Geno Smith has averaged 9.6 yards per attempt against such coverages. If the Titans opt for a single-high approach, it's unclear if they have the defensive backs to cover the trio of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett effectively.
While Lockett has been the most targeted against two-high coverages, I prefer the cost-effective option of Smith-Njigba, who is seeing increased usage in the offense. Metcalf remains a key factor for a potential breakout game and is a must-have in stacks.
The Titans' struggling rushing attack suggests they may need to rely on the passing game in this matchup. Consequently, I'm leaning towards Treylon Burks, who plays a full-time role and offers a budget-friendly option at $3,000. Considering the likelihood of DeAndre Hopkins drawing double coverage, Burks becomes an appealing choice to help allocate funds for top options in other positions.
Mini-Stacks
- Indianapolis at Atlanta
- RB Jonathan Taylor WR Drake London
Zack Moss will be sidelined for this game due to injury, creating an opportunity for Jonathan Taylor, who returns from a thumb injury. In their recent matchup, the Indianapolis Colts saw Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon combine for 157 rushing yards against the Steelers, and the Atlanta Falcons' run defense has been inconsistent, particularly without Grady Jarrett.
While the Falcons face offensive challenges, I believe Drake London has the advantage in this scenario and will likely be a frequent target. The Colts predominantly employ Cover 3, and their boundary corners are not particularly strong. London, who commands 44 percent of the targets out wide, should benefit from this defensive scheme. Although forcing a run back may not be necessary, considering the Falcons' offensive struggles, London stands out as a great value at $5,100.
- Green Bay at Carolina
- WR Dontayvion Wicks RB Chuba Hubbard
With multiple Green Bay Packers wide receivers listed on the injury report, assuming at least one is sidelined, Dontayvion Wicks emerges as a noteworthy option in my player pool, offering salary savings. Wicks possesses a keen ability to exploit soft spots in zone coverages, and given the Carolina Panthers' frequent use of zone, he stands to benefit. While the majority may lean towards Aaron Jones in this matchup, Wicks could be overlooked, presenting a strategic salary-saving opportunity.
Since the firing of Frank Reich, Chuba Hubbard has evolved into a workhorse running back, tallying more than 20 touches in three consecutive games. His role also opens up opportunities for the Packers to increase their passing game, especially considering the Panthers rank highest in the NFL in utilizing zone coverage. With the Packers allowing the third-highest rushing yards per game this season, Hubbard emerges as one of my top plays on the slate.
- Detroit at Minnesota
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Justin Jefferson
Brian Flores is blitzing a lot but playing two safeties deep behind it, and I don’t think Jared Goff will have time to get the ball down the field and will need to find Amon-Ra St. Brown early and often. St. Brown has a 29 percent target share against the blitz this season. Goff is not a great passer when he is pressured, so if it’s getting home, I don’t mind going to the Vikings' defense with Ty Chandler as well.
Nick Mullens wants to force the ball to Justin Jefferson, and I believe he will have that opportunity in this matchup. Jefferson should align out wide in this matchup because Brian Branch has been amazing over the middle of the field. Jefferson has a significant advantage out wide, and I don’t believe the Lions will have any answers for him in this matchup.
- Dallas at Miami
- WR Brandin Cooks WR Tyreek Hill
Last week, the Miami Dolphins strategically deployed Jalen Ramsey to shadow Garrett Wilson in the absence of Xavien Howard due to a hip injury. If Howard remains sidelined, Ramsey will likely shadow CeeDee Lamb in this matchup, making Brandin Cooks the player who has to win in his matchup.
Initially considering Tua Tagovailoa, I shifted my focus to a more cost-effective mini-stack, contemplating between Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Waddle has proven himself a standout player, especially during Hill's absence last week, prompting the Dolphins to make him a featured player. If both Hill and Waddle take the field, I anticipate significant contributions from both, creating a potential for big performances. Recognizing the underappreciated opportunity for Hill in this matchup, I believe he could be a low-ownership spot.
One-Offs
- RB Breece Hall
Without Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the Washington Commanders struggle to defend against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Breece Hall has consistently scored over 18 DraftKings points in each of the Jets' five wins, and the New York Jets are favored in this matchup. This week, the workhorse running backs in the 5,000-6,000 rangehave great matchups.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Justin Fields | CHI | ARI | $7,100 | $8,300 |
| QB | Baker Mayfield | TB | JAX | $6,000 | $7,300 |
| QB | Geno Smith | SEA | TEN | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | JAX | $7,400 | $7,700 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | DAL | $7,300 | $8,800 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | IND | ATL | $7,200 | $9,000 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | DAL | $7,100 | $7,500 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | MIN | $7,000 | $8,400 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | TEN | SEA | $6,800 | $7,900 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | TB | $6,600 | $8,000 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | GB | CAR | $6,400 | $6,700 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | IND | $6,300 | $7,100 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | TEN | $6,200 | $6,800 |
| RB | Breece Hall | NYJ | WAS | $6,100 | $7,400 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | GB | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| RB | Ty Chandler | MIN | DET | $5,600 | $6,900 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | CLE | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | CHI | ARI | $4,800 | $5,400 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | DAL | $9,600 | $10,000 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | MIA | $9,200 | $9,400 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | MIN | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN | DET | $8,100 | $9,200 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | DAL | $7,800 | $8,100 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | JAX | $7,600 | $8,700 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | ARI | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | TEN | $6,700 | $7,600 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | TB | $6,300 | $6,800 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | JAX | $6,200 | $6,900 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | DET | $6,000 | $7,300 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | GB | $5,900 | $6,600 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WAS | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | NYJ | $5,700 | $7,200 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | TEN | $5,600 | $6,700 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | ATL | $5,500 | $6,000 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | GB | CAR | $5,400 | $6,700 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | GB | CAR | $5,300 | $5,700 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | IND | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | DAL | MIA | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | NYJ | $4,800 | $6,500 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | TEN | $4,500 | $5,900 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | NYJ | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | CAR | $4,300 | $5,400 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | CHI | $3,700 | $5,100 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | MIN | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | CHI | ARI | $3,300 | $5,100 |
| WR | Cedric Tillman | CLE | HOU | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| WR | D.J. Montgomery | IND | ATL | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | TEN | SEA | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| WR | Tyler Scott | CHI | ARI | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| TE | Sam Laporta | DET | MIN | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | DET | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | CHI | $5,700 | $7,000 |
| TE | Evan Engram | JAX | TB | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| TE | David Njoku | CLE | HOU | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | MIA | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| TE | Cade Otton | TB | JAX | $3,300 | $5,200 |
| TE | Chig Okonkwo | TEN | SEA | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| DST | Packers | GB | CAR | $3,900 | $4,900 |
| DST | Lions | DET | MIN | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| DST | Seahawks | SEA | TEN | $3,200 | $3,500 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | WAS | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| DST | Cowboys | DAL | MIA | $3,000 | $3,900 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | DAL | $2,700 | $4,100 |
| DST | Buccaneers | TB | JAX | $2,600 | $3,700 |
| DST | Vikings | MIN | DET | $2,500 | $3,600 |
| DST | Panthers | CAR | GB | $2,400 | $3,2 |
