Fantasy

12/16/23

8 min read

2023 NFL Week 15 Fantasy Football Projections

Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) rushes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

At The 33rd Team, we use machine learning to project player performance and fantasy production week-to-week to help you make well-informed decisions about your lineups. Below is the model’s projections for Week 15 by position.

Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, their projected points in half-PPR and PPR leagues and their projected rank. Some short commentary is provided for some notable players for whom the model is far apart from consensus.

Disclaimer: We do not recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Week 15 Projections

Quarterbacks

index	Team	Player	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Rush	Yds	TD	FFPTS	PPRPTs
1	Philadelphia Eagles	Jalen Hurts	32	21.8	250.6	1.6	10.7	47	0.6	23	23
1	Buffalo Bills	Josh Allen	36.9	25.4	269	2.2	5.2	26.8	0.4	22.4	22.4
1	Kansas City Chiefs	Patrick Mahomes	38.8	26.2	267	2.6	3.9	18.9	0.2	22.1	22.1
1	Los Angeles Rams	Matthew Stafford	36.3	22.5	343.8	2	0.6	2	0.1	20.5	20.5
1	San Francisco 49ers	Brock Purdy	30.2	22.4	305.1	2	3.3	4.8	0.1	19.6	19.6
1	Baltimore Ravens	Lamar Jackson	28.3	19.4	235.3	1	8.2	41.2	0.6	19.6	19.6
1	Washington Commanders	Sam Howell	43.4	28.8	286.2	1.6	3.7	22.3	0.1	18.1	18.1
1	Dallas Cowboys	Dak Prescott	33.8	23.8	265.1	1.9	2.4	10.6	0.2	18.6	18.6
1	Detroit Lions	Jared Goff	35.6	24.2	297.2	2	0.7	1.2	0.1	18.3	18.3
1	Green Bay Packers	Jordan Love	33.2	20.9	263.4	1.8	3.8	14.6	0.1	18.3	18.3
1	Denver Broncos	Russell Wilson	31.3	23.3	223.2	2.1	3.6	20.2	0.1	18.2	18.2
1	Cincinnati Bengals	Jake Browning	36.4	23.7	230.7	1.9	3.2	17.1	0.2	17.6	17.6
1	Los Angeles Chargers	Easton Stick	35.6	21	241.2	1.9	4	18.4	0.1	17.6	17.6
1	Chicago Bears	Justin Fields	36.7	22	232.3	1.1	7.6	37.1	0.3	17.4	17.4
1	New Orleans Saints	Derek Carr	35	22.8	230.8	1.9	1.4	5.2	0.1	16	16
1	Minnesota Vikings	Nick Mullens	38.5	22.5	247.6	1.9	1.1	5.9	0	15.8	15.8
1	Las Vegas Raiders	Aidan O'Connell	30	19.5	217.3	1.9	1.2	4.2	0.1	15.8	15.8
1	Miami Dolphins	Tua Tagovailoa	33.5	20.9	220.9	1.8	0.7	1.9	0.1	15.3	15.3
1	Tennessee Titans	Will Levis	33.3	19.2	234.7	1.4	3.4	7.4	0.2	15.2	15.2
1	Arizona Cardinals	Kyler Murray	29.9	18.7	188.6	0.9	5.7	31.9	0.4	15.1	15.1
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Baker Mayfield	33.1	21.3	228.1	1.5	2.4	9	0.1	14.6	14.6
1	Indianapolis Colts	Gardner Minshew	34.7	21.3	239.5	1.2	1.5	9.2	0.2	14.6	14.6
1	Houston Texans	Davis Mills	33.9	18.7	197.2	1.8	1.9	9.1	0.1	14.5	14.5
1	Seattle Seahawks	Drew Lock	32.3	20.2	209.1	1.7	1.3	6.2	0.1	14.4	14.4
1	Atlanta Falcons	Desmond Ridder	33.4	21.4	196.8	1.6	2.3	9.6	0.1	14.3	14.3
1	Carolina Panthers	Bryce Young	38.9	22.6	193.6	1.5	2.4	13.8	0.1	13.4	13.4
1	Cleveland Browns	Joe Flacco	35.3	19.4	197.6	1.5	1.3	6.5	0.2	13.6	13.6
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	Mitch Trubisky	34.7	19.9	215.8	1.1	1.2	3	0.2	12.8	12.8
1	New York Giants	Tommy DeVito	30.9	19.3	191.7	1.2	1.9	9.3	0.1	12.7	12.7
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	Trevor Lawrence	35.4	22.1	191.7	1.1	2.2	12	0.1	11.8	11.8
1	New England Patriots	Bailey Zappe	35.8	20.6	156.5	1.5	1.8	5	0.1	11.5	11.5
1	New York Jets	Zach Wilson	30	18	150.1	1.1	1.7	7.6	0.1	10.3	10.3

Jake Browning (QB12)

The new starter under center for the Cincinnati Bengals has posted back-to-back top-five fantasy weeks. Although it is hard to replicate that ceiling against a rising Vikings defense, we still have Jake Browning as a low-end QB1 with his top two pass-catchers — Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — available in Week 15. He is an easy start in all Superflex leagues.

Running backs

index	Name	Rush	Yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	FFPTS	PPRPTs
2	Christian McCaffrey	18.9	93.5	1.1	6.8	5.2	57.5	0.2	26.1	28.7
3	Alvin Kamara	15.9	60.2	0.5	7	5.9	47.8	0.5	19.6	22.6
4	Zack Moss	25.4	105.6	0.9	2.6	1.8	13.3	0	18.1	19
3	Travis Etienne	20.9	91.3	0.7	4.6	3	24.2	0.1	17.9	19.4
2	Bijan Robinson	18	90.7	0.3	5.8	3.6	28.8	0.3	17.5	19.3
9	Kyren Williams	16.5	65.6	0.4	4.5	3.3	33.1	0.5	17	18.7
2	Derrick Henry	19.4	72.8	1	2.5	1.9	18.5	0.1	16.5	17.4
3	Jahmyr Gibbs	11	60.6	0.5	5.3	3.9	33.3	0.3	16	18
3	Antonio Gibson	14.6	59.3	0.3	6.5	4.8	43.6	0.2	15.5	17.9
2	Saquon Barkley	18.1	78.9	0.5	4.6	2.9	17.5	0.3	15.4	16.9
6	D'Andre Swift	16.6	85.5	0.5	3.2	2.5	16.5	0.2	15.4	16.7
8	Austin Ekeler	16	63.4	0.3	5.3	3.1	35.7	0.3	15.1	16.7
2	Rachaad White	17	71.1	0.5	4.1	3.3	26.9	0.1	15.1	16.7
3	Breece Hall	16.8	52.5	0.5	6	4.5	33.5	0.1	14.7	16.9
3	Josh Jacobs	19.8	69	0.7	3	2.1	18.6	0.1	14.7	15.7
8	David Montgomery	16.1	78.1	0.7	1.6	1	8.9	0	13.4	13.9
3	Tony Pollard	19.2	79.6	0.5	2.5	1.9	9.8	0.1	13.4	14.3
3	Kenneth Walker III	18.9	72.9	0.7	1.6	1.1	4.7	0.1	13.2	13.7
8	Ezekiel Elliott	18.4	78.3	0.3	3.6	2.5	17.2	0.1	13.1	14.3
2	Aaron Jones	15.2	46.9	0.6	3.3	2.3	23.6	0.1	12.4	13.5
3	Joe Mixon	13	45.5	0.5	3.6	2.7	22.5	0.2	12.2	13.6
5	Jaylen Warren	9.4	49.2	0.4	4.1	2.8	22.1	0.1	11.5	12.9
2	Javonte Williams	11.9	43.4	0.2	4.4	3.3	20.1	0.3	11.4	13
4	Raheem Mostert	11.9	58.8	0.5	1.7	1.3	9.1	0.1	11.3	12
4	Gus Edwards	9.9	39.7	0.7	2.1	1.5	20	0	11.1	11.8
2	James Conner	15.4	66.3	0.4	1.5	1.1	4.8	0.1	10.9	11.4
3	James Cook	13.1	61.8	0.2	2.6	2	15.9	0.1	10.8	11.8
5	Devon Achane	10.6	55.8	0.4	1.7	1.2	8.1	0.2	10.3	10.9
4	Chuba Hubbard	16.2	49.8	0.2	4.1	3	15.1	0.1	9.8	11.3
2	Najee Harris	9.4	36.9	0.5	2.6	1.8	12.4	0.1	9.7	10.6
7	D'Onta Foreman	12.4	52.2	0.2	4.6	2.7	13.7	0	9.5	10.9
5	Jerome Ford	14.6	50.4	0.4	2.6	1.7	9.8	0	9.4	10.2
7	Tyjae Spears	6.4	28.2	0.2	4.9	3.5	27.8	0	8.7	10.4
3	Devin Singletary	11	42.1	0.3	1.7	1.3	9.7	0.1	8.5	9.2
5	Ty Chandler	14.3	58.7	0	1.9	1.3	12	0	8.1	8.8
5	Jerick McKinnon	7.7	26	0.2	1.9	1.4	12.2	0.3	7.7	8.4
4	Samaje Perine	4.1	14.8	0	3.6	3.2	32.5	0.2	7.6	9.2
8	Keaton Mitchell	9.9	47.5	0.2	1.7	1.4	7.1	0	7.5	8.1
4	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10.3	34.8	0.2	1	0.7	5.9	0.2	6.8	7.1
6	Dameon Pierce	11	32.8	0.2	1.7	1.3	8.2	0.1	6.4	7.1
5	Tyler Allgeier	7.5	33.1	0.3	0.8	0.6	3.8	0.1	6.3	6.6
8	Jaleel McLaughlin	4.1	18.7	0.1	3.9	3.2	14	0.1	6.3	7.9
7	Kareem Hunt	6.6	20.5	0.3	1.8	1.2	8	0.1	6.2	6.8
3	A.J. Dillon	5.1	15.6	0.1	3.3	2.3	23.6	0	5.9	7
10	Royce Freeman	3.8	15.1	0.4	1.8	1.1	7.9	0.1	5.6	6.2
6	Rico Dowdle	8	33.6	0.2	0.8	0.7	3.3	0	5.2	5.5
7	Kenneth Gainwell	3.9	17	0.2	2.4	1.7	6.6	0.1	5.1	5.9
3	Khalil Herbert	2.7	11.9	0.3	2.8	1.5	11.5	0	5	5.7
7	Zach Charbonnet	3.8	15.7	0.1	3.3	2.3	10.5	0.1	4.7	5.9
8	Chase Brown	4.3	16.6	0.1	2.7	1.8	12.3	0.1	4.5	5.4
8	Dalvin Cook	3.2	12.6	0.2	2.8	1.7	7.4	0.1	4.5	5.4
2	Miles Sanders	4.8	17.3	0.1	1.9	1.3	5	0.1	4.5	5.2
6	Latavius Murray	5.2	19.5	0.3	0.9	0.6	2.6	0	4.5	4.8
6	D'Ernest Johnson	2.9	13.4	0.2	1.5	1.1	8.2	0.1	4.3	4.8
7	Elijah Mitchell	5.3	17.8	0.2	0.9	0.7	5.1	0	4.2	4.5
5	Roschon Johnson	2.7	9.6	0.1	2.8	1.6	12.1	0.1	4.2	4.9
4	Joshua Kelley	4	13.1	0.1	1.8	1.3	9.5	0.1	3.9	4.6
7	Justice Hill	3.3	11.9	0.2	1.7	1.3	8.6	0	3.7	4.3
7	Matt Breida	2.6	11.2	0.3	0.8	0.5	2.7	0	3.4	3.7
4	Jamaal Williams	5.1	19.7	0.2	0.5	0.4	1.5	0	3.3	3.5
10	Ameer Abdullah	1.9	9.3	0.1	1.5	1.1	9.1	0.1	3.2	3.8
7	Salvon Ahmed	2	8	0.1	0.8	0.6	4.4	0.1	3.1	3.4
6	Pierre Strong Jr.	3.3	12.7	0.1	0.9	0.6	3.5	0	2.7	3.1
2	Rhamondre Stevenson	0	0	0.4	0	0	0	0.1	2.7	2.7
9	Zamir White	0.2	1	0.2	1.5	1.1	7.3	0.1	2.7	3.3
6	Cordarrelle Patterson	2.3	9.8	0	1.7	1.2	6.5	0	2.6	3.2
9	Kendre Miller	0.7	2.9	0.1	0.9	0.7	3.7	0.1	2.4	2.8
8	Leonard Fournette	1.3	4.1	0.1	0.9	0.7	4.1	0.1	2.3	2.6
9	Isaiah Spiller	0.7	2.6	0.1	0.9	0.7	2.8	0.1	1.5	1.9
9	Boston Scott	1.1	4.8	0.1	0.5	0.3	2.8	0	1.5	1.7
11	Eric Gray	0.6	2.7	0.1	0.6	0.4	2.8	0	1.3	1.5
12	Gary Brightwell	0.6	2.3	0.1	0.3	0.2	1.6	0	1.3	1.4
6	Chris Evans	1.1	4.5	0	0	0	0	0.1	1	1
9	Emari Demercado	1.2	4.3	0.1	0	0	0	0	0.8	0.8
4	Rashaad Penny	0.8	3.7	0	0.3	0.2	1.1	0	0.7	0.9
4	Alexander Mattison	0	0	0.1	0	0	0	0	0.7	0.7
8	Keaontay Ingram	0.9	2.5	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5
6	Jordan Mason	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sean Tucker	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Zach Evans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Darrell Henderson Jr	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brian Robinson Jr.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Antonio Gibson (RB9)

After an entire season of playing second fiddle in this Washington Commanders backfield, Antonio Gibson is now asked to step into a starting role for the injured Brian Robinson Jr. Washington draws a matchup against the Los Angeles Rams that could result in a shootout, prompting Gibson to get a plethora of touches, on the ground and through the air. He is an automatic start with the No. 1 overall RB ceiling.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB19)

Although consensus is very high on Ezekiel Elliott in Week 15, we are on the same page. After struggling to find a team in the offseason, Elliott has found a home in a broken offense that will now rely on the run and get a soft defensive matchup at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Elliott has the potential to see north of 20 touches and is the clear first-option at the goal-line if the Patriots do put together a scoring drive or two.

Samaje Perine (RB37)

Even though the Broncos' running back room is fully healthy now, Samaje Perine's usage has gone under the radar. He has recorded at least 40 scrimmage yards in five of his last seven games, and in Week 15, he is a deep-league Flex option.

The Denver Broncos could get a severe negative gamescript from the get-go as road underdogs, and that should open up a pass-catching environment where Perine could thrive. But he also recorded a pair of red zone carries as recently as Week 12.

Wide Receivers

index	Name	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	FFPTS	PPRPTs
2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.7	7.8	103.4	0.6	18	22
2	Justin Jefferson	10.6	7.4	100.4	0.4	17	20.7
2	Stefon Diggs	10.1	7	81.1	0.8	16.1	19.6
2	CeeDee Lamb	10.1	7.3	83.3	0.6	16.1	19.7
2	Michael Pittman Jr.	10.4	7.3	94.4	0.4	16.1	19.7
8	Cooper Kupp	9.1	5.1	100.7	0.5	15.7	18.3
3	Brandon Aiyuk	6.8	5.2	87.6	0.7	15.4	18
2	Tyreek Hill	10.9	7.6	73.2	0.6	14.4	18.3
4	Mike Evans	9.1	5.3	84.7	0.4	13.8	16.5
2	Ja'Marr Chase	10	5.8	70.8	0.6	13.3	16.2
5	Courtland Sutton	7.8	5.4	63.4	0.7	13.1	15.8
3	DeVonta Smith	7.4	5.3	77.7	0.4	12.8	15.4
5	Puka Nacua	8.2	4.7	78.6	0.4	12.7	15
2	DK Metcalf	8.9	4.7	71.7	0.5	12.5	14.8
2	Nico Collins	7.6	5.3	68	0.5	12.5	15.1
2	DJ Moore	9.2	6.4	65	0.4	12.4	15.6
3	Jaylen Waddle	8.4	5.6	72.4	0.4	12.4	15.2
2	Terry McLaurin	9.8	6.7	70.8	0.3	12.3	15.6
2	Amari Cooper	9.7	5.5	60.1	0.5	11.9	14.7
2	A.J. Brown	8	5.4	61.9	0.5	11.8	14.5
3	Diontae Johnson	9.5	5.7	75.7	0.2	11.8	14.7
2	Davante Adams	8.3	4.3	54.3	0.6	11.6	13.8
3	Adam Thielen	9.7	6.1	60.3	0.4	11.6	14.6
3	DeAndre Hopkins	8.2	3.9	65.6	0.4	11.1	13.1
7	Rashid Shaheed	6.1	3.7	56	0.4	11	12.9
3	Drake London	8.4	5.8	59.9	0.4	11	13.9
3	Josh Palmer	7.1	4.6	66.7	0.2	10.9	13.3
9	Rashee Rice	8.1	5.7	54.5	0.4	10.9	13.7
6	Jayden Reed	5.8	4	53	0.4	10.6	12.7
5	Josh Downs	8.7	4.8	61.7	0.3	10.5	12.9
11	Demarcus Robinson	6.4	3.6	70.5	0.3	10.4	12.2
4	Tyler Lockett	6.8	4.8	51.7	0.5	10.3	12.8
3	Jerry Jeudy	5.5	4.1	54.1	0.3	9.6	11.7
2	Garrett Wilson	9	5	47.8	0.4	9.6	12.1
8	Jordan Addison	6.7	4.1	52.1	0.4	9.5	11.5
5	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.8	4.4	56.3	0.3	9.4	11.6
2	Calvin Ridley	6.9	4.6	53.1	0.3	9.3	11.6
5	Zay Flowers	7.1	5.1	54.1	0.2	9.3	11.8
5	Noah Brown	5.9	4.2	64.7	0.1	9.2	11.3
4	Brandin Cooks	5.1	3.8	54.1	0.3	9.2	11
4	Jakobi Meyers	6	3.3	47.8	0.3	9.1	10.7
3	Chris Godwin	6.7	4.2	41.2	0.4	8.7	10.8
4	George Pickens	6.1	3.2	46.5	0.3	8.6	10.2
5	Deebo Samuel	5.1	3.7	29.8	0.2	8.6	10.5
4	Elijah Moore	8.8	4.7	40.5	0.3	8.6	10.9
7	Curtis Samuel	6.5	4.6	47.9	0.2	8.4	10.7
3	Odell Beckham Jr.	6.4	3.9	51.2	0.2	8.2	10.1
5	Romeo Doubs	5	3.4	39.6	0.4	8.1	9.8
5	Tyler Boyd	6.4	3.8	31	0.5	7.9	9.8
4	Gabe Davis	4.6	2.8	41.8	0.4	7.8	9.2
3	Darius Slayton	5.3	3.5	44.6	0.2	7.6	9.4
6	Jahan Dotson	6.5	4	39.2	0.3	7.6	9.5
7	Robert Woods	5.9	3.4	35	0.4	7.4	9.1
3	Marquise Brown	6.6	3.4	40.2	0.2	7.2	8.9
4	Tee Higgins	7.3	4.4	48.8	0	7.1	9.3
8	Jonathan Mingo	7.8	4.1	38.6	0.2	6.9	9
7	Quentin Johnston	5.3	3.1	37.5	0.2	6.5	8
6	DeVante Parker	5.4	3.1	34	0.2	6.4	8
6	DJ Chark	3.9	2.5	36.9	0.2	6.3	7.6
5	Rondale Moore	5.2	3.2	28.5	0.1	6.3	7.9
8	Dontayvion Wicks	4.2	2.5	36	0.2	6.2	7.4
3	Alec Pierce	3.5	2.3	36.9	0.2	5.9	7
5	Josh Reynolds	3.6	2.2	31.9	0.2	5.7	6.8
6	Wan'Dale Robinson	4.6	2.9	27.1	0.2	5.4	6.9
7	Trey Palmer	4	2.6	23.6	0.3	5.4	6.7
9	Jalin Hyatt	4.4	2.1	37	0.1	5.4	6.5
9	Khalil Shakir	3.5	2.1	33.2	0.2	5.4	6.5
7	Parker Washington	4.6	3.3	24.6	0.2	5.3	6.9
7	K.J. Osborn	3.9	2.3	16.6	0.4	5.2	6.4
10	Greg Dortch	4.5	3.2	31.1	0.1	5.2	6.8
10	Justin Watson	5.8	3	29.7	0.1	5.2	6.7
5	Zay Jones	3.8	2.6	20.4	0.2	4.9	6.2
7	Kalif Raymond	3.4	2.1	31.2	0.1	4.8	5.8
3	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.5	3	23	0.2	4.8	6.3
3	Skyy Moore	2.9	1.7	18	0.2	4.7	5.5
6	Darnell Mooney	3.7	1.8	26.7	0.2	4.6	5.5
8	Jalen Tolbert	4.2	2.4	23.6	0.2	4.5	5.7
6	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2.5	1.3	22.8	0.3	4.5	5.1
2	Rashod Bateman	2.8	1.9	25	0.2	4.4	5.3
5	Michael Gallup	2.5	1.8	28.2	0.1	4.2	5.1
4	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2.3	1.2	16.8	0.3	4	4.5
6	Brandon Powell	3.9	2.5	20.5	0.1	3.7	4.9
9	Trenton Irwin	2.7	1.9	20.2	0.1	3.5	4.4
6	Jalen Guyton	3.6	1.8	13.7	0.2	3.4	4.3
7	Marvin Mims Jr.	2.2	1.3	16.9	0.2	3.3	4
6	Jameson Williams	2.7	1.2	17.3	0.1	3.2	3.8
9	Jauan Jennings	2.1	1.4	18.2	0.1	2.9	3.6
6	Hunter Renfrow	2.3	1.6	12.5	0.1	2.9	3.7
9	Nelson Agholor	1.4	1	13.5	0.1	2.6	3.1
7	Deonte Harty	1.8	1.1	10.1	0.1	2.4	3
7	Kadarius Toney	1	0.6	4.2	0.2	2.3	2.7
4	Parris Campbell	1.2	0.8	4.9	0.1	2.1	2.5
8	DeAndre Carter	0.8	0.5	7.1	0.1	2	2.3
5	Demario Douglas	0	0	0	0.3	1.7	1.7
8	Isaiah Hodgins	1.5	0.9	5.7	0.1	1.6	2
8	Danny Gray	1	0.6	6.8	0.1	1.5	1.8
5	Quez Watkins	0.8	0.5	4.3	0	1.4	1.7
7	Calvin Austin III	1.3	0.7	7.5	0	1.1	1.5
6	Ben Skowronek	0.9	0.6	4.7	0.1	1.1	1.3
7	Zach Pascal	1.5	0.9	5	0	1	1.5
5	Laviska Shenault	1.2	0.7	4.8	0	0.8	1.2
6	Michael Wilson	0	0	0	0.1	0.6	0.6
7	Tutu Atwell	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.3
5	Treylon Burks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Allen Lazard	0.8	0	0	0	0	0
5	Randall Cobb	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Christian Watson	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Chris Olave	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Keenan Allen	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Michael Thomas	0	0	0	0	0	0

DeVonta Smith (WR12)

The streaky second-option for the Philadelphia Eagles is on a streak of four streak games with at least eight targets while also scoring a touchdown in four of his last six games. Although tight end Dallas Goedert is back for Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith has already posted three top-15 wide receiver weeks this season with Goedert playing.

Smith draws a friendly matchup in a likely-competitive game against the Seahawks, whose top cornerbacks will prioritize diminishing the efficiency of the Eagles’ alpha, A.J. Brown. We have Smith projected not only well above consensus but also above Brown in Week 15.

Adam Thielen (WR23)

Although putting your fantasy playoff matchup in the hands of Bryce Young in potentially tough weather conditions may be scary, we still trust the volume for Carolina's offensive alpha.

Top-option wide receivers have had their way against the Falcons defense recently and that should be the case again for the veteran Adam Thielen, who has at least six targets in every single home game and seven top-24 wide receiver weeks this season despite being tethered to this horrific passing attack.

Tight Ends

index	Name	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	FFPTS	PPRPTs
8	Taysom Hill	1.8	1.2	6.2	0.2	21.4	22
2	Travis Kelce	10.7	8.4	73.8	0.8	16.3	20.5
3	T.J. Hockenson	9.6	6.7	78.5	0.4	14.5	17.8
4	George Kittle	6.8	5.2	65.4	0.5	12.3	14.9
5	Dalton Kincaid	8.3	6.4	60.4	0.4	11.9	15.1
4	Sam LaPorta	7.1	5.3	55	0.4	10.7	13.4
4	Trey McBride	8.2	6	55.3	0.2	9.7	12.7
7	Jake Ferguson	6.8	4.3	46.4	0.4	9.5	11.6
4	Kyle Pitts	7.5	5	52.3	0.3	9.4	12
4	Dalton Schultz	5.9	3.9	43.7	0.4	9	10.9
4	Cole Kmet	7.3	5.6	42.6	0.3	9	11.8
3	David Njoku	8.8	5.3	42.2	0.3	8.7	11.4
8	Dallas Goedert	5.6	4	51.4	0.2	8.5	10.5
5	Logan Thomas	6.5	4.4	42.3	0.3	8.2	10.4
4	Evan Engram	7.7	5.6	36.9	0.2	7.7	10.4
6	Juwan Johnson	6.1	3.6	30	0.5	7.6	9.4
7	Jonnu Smith	5	3.8	33.8	0.3	6.9	8.8
5	Michael Mayer	4.5	3.2	42.3	0.2	6.8	8.4
9	Tucker Kraft	5	2.5	33	0.3	6.5	7.7
6	Durham Smythe	5.4	3.6	29.2	0.3	6.2	8
6	Isaiah Likely	4.2	3.2	34.4	0.2	6.1	7.7
5	Gerald Everett	4.4	2.9	28.2	0.3	6	7.4
4	Hunter Henry	4.5	2.8	22.6	0.4	5.8	7.2
6	Chigoziem Okonkwo	5.2	3.3	26.4	0.2	5.5	7.1
2	Tyler Higbee	4.5	2.9	27.2	0.2	5.4	6.8
9	Pat Freiermuth	4.5	2.8	27.7	0.2	5.2	6.6
5	Cade Otton	4.1	2.7	24.1	0.2	5.1	6.4
6	Tyler Conklin	3.8	2.7	26.3	0.1	4.6	6
10	Daniel Bellinger	2.8	2	22.3	0.1	4	5
9	Tommy Tremble	3.9	2.3	13.9	0.2	3.8	5
7	Hayden Hurst	2.9	1.6	14.3	0.2	3.7	4.5
6	Adam Trautman	2.3	1.7	12.2	0.2	3.3	4.2
7	Mike Gesicki	2.7	1.5	14.7	0.2	3.2	3.9
6	Noah Fant	2.4	1.6	12.5	0.2	3.1	3.9
8	Noah Gray	1.9	1.5	17.5	0.1	3.1	3.8
7	Irv Smith Jr.	1.8	1.3	6.5	0.2	2.3	2.9
6	Kylen Granson	2.6	1.3	9.8	0.1	2.3	2.9
10	Tanner Hudson	1.8	1.3	9.9	0.1	2.2	2.9
8	Will Dissly	1.4	0.9	7.8	0.1	1.9	2.3
7	Austin Hooper	0.8	0.6	4.6	0.1	1.5	1.7
7	C.J. Uzomah	0.3	0.2	1.3	0.1	0.6	0.7
8	Zach Gentry	0.2	0.1	1.1	0	0.2	0.2
5	Darren Waller	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Luke Musgrave	0	0	0	0	0	0

Trey McBride (TE7)

Kyler Murray is back and has officially marked the breakout of the sophomore tight end with an elite athletic profile, Trey McBride. The 49ers’ defense is elite but banged up in Week 15 and in a likely positive gamescript, the volume and big-play ability of McBride equates to an auto-start in all formats.

McBride has ranked as a top-12 tight end in five of the last six weeks, and he should be a shoo-in to rank in the top-12 again, with atop-five ceiling.

Juwan Johnson (TE16)

If you are streaming at tight end in the fantasy playoffs, Juwan Johnson screams as an obvious candidate to carry a Tier-1 ceiling. With Michael Thomas on the injured reserve and Chris Olave questionable, Johnson is a candidate to be a red zone target monster at home against a Giants defense that should get scorched on the ground and give up plenty of points after the highs of a Week 14 upset win.

Johnson has six red zone targets this season and will likely need to find the end zone to be a huge difference-maker, but that possibility makes him worth the start in a game where New Orleans could score in bunches even though they are short-handed.

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Tags: Fantasy Football

Ahaan Rungta

Ahaan S. Rungta is a fantasy and betting analyst with a background in data science. He has previously worked in fantasy football analytics, specializing in season-long projections and dynasty rookie draft models. He is currently a betting content creator for MLB, the NBA and the NFL.