NFL Analysis

12/14/23

9 min read

2023 NFL Week 15: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 15.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 15 MATCHUPS

Chargers vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Chargers 20th, Raiders 32nd

Thursday night brings another riveting matchup between two teams featuring yet two more backup quarterbacks in Aidan O’Connell and Easton Stick. This game could be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Neither team appears to have a significant advantage over the other, occupying the league’s bottom two spots in Rushing Total Points per play.

This one could come down to whoever can make the opposing quarterback more uncomfortable. The Los Angeles Chargers have a better pass rush, but the Las Vegas Raiders are a good blocking team.

Vikings vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 17th, Bengals 11th

Nick Mullens will make his first start of the season while Jake Browning looks to keep the Cincinnati Bengals’ momentum rolling. These teams match up fairly well. However, look for the Minnesota Vikings to establish the run early and often against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom three in the NFL in Run Defense Total Points Per Play.

The Cincinnati secondary also holds an advantage against the Minnesota receiving corps, though the presumed return of Justin Jefferson might even up that mismatch. 

Steelers vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 29th, Colts 31st

In case you were curious, this is another game between two backup quarterbacks. The Pittsburgh Steelers' run defense, pass rush and pass coverage all have the upper hand against the corresponding Indianapolis Colts' offensive units. The Steelers should have no problem running the ball effectively, either.

Still, the Colts hold a significant advantage in the passing game. This game should be a dogfight and closely contested the whole way. 

Broncos vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 21st, Lions ninth

Saturday night’s game features two teams with records that are fairly close to each other, but that is not the case regarding Total Points Per Play rankings.

The Detroit Lions have the upper hand pretty much across the board. The Lions should exploit the Denver Broncos' trench play by running the ball against their bottom-five run defense and control the line of scrimmage against their middling offensive line. 

Falcons vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 18th, Panthers sixth

The Carolina Panthers rank low in Total Points Per Play across the board (hence their 1-12 record), and the Atlanta Falcons have clear mismatches to exploit, especially run and pass defense.

This game figures to be low-scoring but could also be one-sided, which makes for a boring watch. 

Bears vs. Browns

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 13th, Browns 14th

This matchup features the top two run defenses in the league. However, the same cannot be said for pass rush units, where the Cleveland Browns' top-ranked squad holds a decided advantage over the Bears group that ranks in the bottom three.

The Browns' pass game has taken a step forward with Joe Flacco. That should be enough of an offensive boost for the Browns to slip past the Chicago Bears, who have built some momentum in recent weeks. 

Buccaneers vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Bucs 27th, Packers second

The Green Bay Packers’ pass game has been a pleasant surprise this season and is ranked in the top 10 in Total Points Per Play. It'll face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that also ranks in the top 10 for defending the pass.

These teams are fairly evenly matched, but Jordan Love will have the opportunity to put his stamp on this game. The Packers run game is at a stark disadvantage against the Tampa Bay defensive front, but Love should have ample time to pass the ball as his offensive line ranks significantly higher than the Bucs’ pass rush.

Jets vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 23rd, Dolphins 16th

Zach Wilson re-entered the starting lineup for the New York Jets last week and had perhaps the best game of his NFL career. As good as that performance was, we do not expect a repeat performance. The Miami Dolphins get this game at home and have almost every conceivable advantage on paper.

Look especially for the Dolphins' pass rush to dominate this game, as their second-best in the NFL unit squares off against the Jets’ second-worst offensive line by Blocking Total Points Per Play.

Giants vs. Saints

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 25th, Saints 22nd

Tommy DeVito has energized the New York Giants with his play the past few weeks, but he has a tall order this week. The New Orleans Saints hold the top spot in the NFL when it comes to Pass Coverage Total Points Per Play, and the New York receiving corps comes in at the bottom three.

The Giants have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL, putting them last in Blocking Total Points Per Play. Anything can happen between these two games, but the Saints have an excellent opportunity to claw even closer to the NFC South crown and a playoff berth in this matchup. 

Texans vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Texans seventh, Titans eighth 

The Houston Texans offense was performing at a high level, especially through the air. But injuries have popped up to harm their stars in recent weeks. After losing rookie Tank Dell two weeks ago, presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and WR Nico Collins left last week’s game. It doesn't like either will suit up this week.

Both teams have bottom-three pass coverage units with top-four receiving corps in terms of Total Points Per Play. However, the Tennessee Titans' top-ranked run game will always be tough to defend, even with a top-three run defense. This game should be competitive from start to finish. 

Chiefs vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 26th, Patriots 28th

This game appears one-sided on paper, with the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranked astronomically higher than the New England Patriots. The Chiefs could be without RB Isiah Pacheco again against the sixth-ranked Patriots defense, so there are areas New England can exploit.

This game could get ugly as Kansas City looks to make up for its recent falters, but the Patriots always have a shot at Gillette Stadium. 

49ers vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers 10th, Cardinals third

After a brief skid earlier in the season, the San Francisco 49ers look to every bit of the juggernaut most thought they were. They have massive mismatches across the board and should handle business on the road.

The Arizona Cardinals are a scrappy, young squad, but this game could be too much for them. 

Commanders vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 19th, Rams 12th

This game might appear lackluster on paper, but it has the chance to surpass expectations from an entertainment perspective. Matthew Stafford is on a major hot streak right now and figures to keep it going against a Washington Commanders' defense that ranks 26th and 28th in pass rush and pass coverage Total Points Per Play, respectively.

The Commanders do have some hope, though, as the Rams also bring in a bad pass rush unit. That could allow Sam Howell some time to throw the ball. That’s something he has not had all year thus far.

Cowboys vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys fifth, Bills fourth

This game is a heavyweight matchup between two teams that have played good football recently. These teams are pretty evenly matched overall, but some areas can be exploited.

While both teams rank in the top four in the NFL in Passing Total Points Per Play (with the Dallas Cowboys being first), the Cowboys' defensive backfield has a major advantage against the Bills' receiving corps.

This game will also be played outside in Buffalo, a much different environment than AT&T Stadium, where Dallas has played so well this season. 

Ravens vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 30th, Jaguars 24th

The Baltimore Ravens come into this game, holding the AFC's top spot against the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars. Although Trevor Lawrence is toughing through a high ankle sprain, his resilience could be for naught against the dominant Baltimore defense.

The biggest mismatch in this game comes in the Ravens pass rush and pass coverage units, which both rank in the top four of the NFL, against the Jaguars receivers and offensive line, which are between mediocre and bad, especially with the loss of Christian Kirk. 

Eagles vs. Seahawks

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles first, Seahawks 15th

Monday night’s game between two avian adversaries could shape to be one-sided in favor of the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles; the Seattle Seahawks do have areas they can exploit. Both sides can move the ball through the air, weather permitting, in this game.

The Eagles are in the top five for Passing Total Points Per Play, while the Seahawks rank 19th in pass coverage. On the other hand, Philly’s pass coverage ranks even lower at 27th, which should give the talented Seattle pass catchers good opportunities to produce. 

This article was written by Jeremy Percy.

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Sports Info Solutions

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