Betting
12/15/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 Betting Preview For Every Game
I’ve watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article I’ll discuss how I’m treating various situations in each of those formats. I’ll also provide updates on line movement, while providing updated score predictions when applicable.
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Bengals vs. Vikings
Spread: Bengals -3.5
Total: 40.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Bengals -4 to Bengals -3.5. The total has moved up from 39.5 to 40.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. These are two similarly talented teams with backup quarterbacks and excellent defensive coordinators. The Minnesota Vikings are an interesting leverage option that I will play in at least half of my lineups.
Survivor Pools: Cincinnati is a semi-popular option this week that I am completely avoiding.
Score Prediction: Bengals 16, Vikings 13
Colts vs. Steelers
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Colts -2.5 to Colts -1.5. The total has moved from 42 to 42.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. Mitch Trubisky cannot be trusted, and he makes Pittsburgh a volatile offense. That said, the Colts aren’t exactly a beacon of reliability themselves. The Pittsburgh Steelers are an interesting leverage option that I will play in roughly half of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Colts 16, Steelers 13
Lions vs. Broncos
Spread: Lions -4.5
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Lions -4 up to Lions -5. It moved back down to Lions -4.5 on Friday. The total has moved up from 46.5 to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in at least 70 percent of entries. The Denver Broncos are an interesting leverage option. That said, the current consensus is correct on this contest, which is not the case in several other spots. So, I’m going to be right around consensus on this matchup.
Survivor Pools: You should have already used Detroit, but if you haven’t, it is a semi-viable option this late in the season.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Broncos 20
Browns vs. Bears
Spread: Browns -3.5
Total: 38
The spread for this game has moved from Browns -3.5 to Browns -3. The total has fluctuated between 38 and 37.5 points throughout the week.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cleveland Browns to be used in roughly 85 percent of entries. I view this as a coin-flip game where I actually lean toward the Bears winning this contest. I will use the Chicago Bears in roughly 60 percent of my entries. The Bears or Vikings will be my biggest contrarian stance on this slate.
Survivor Pools: I’m going to avoid this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Browns 16
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Spread: Patriots +8
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has moved from Patriots +10 to Patriots +7.5. The line moved back up to Patriots +8 on Friday. That total has fluctuated throughout the week between 37 and 37.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 95 percent of entries. I’m going to use Kansas City in all my entries. However, if I was in a very large pool with a massive weekly payout, I would consider the New England Patriots in that scenario.
Survivor Pools: Kansas City is a strong option every week through the rest of the season unless the Chiefs rest their starters in Week 18.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Patriots 13
Panthers vs. Falcons
Spread: Panthers +3
Total: 33.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Panthers +3 all week. The total has moved down from 35 to 33.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Atlanta Falcons to be used in 90 percent of entries. The Carolina Panthers’ offense has been terrible, but Atlanta has not been a reliable enough team to be used in nearly all entries in a road game. I think the Falcons win, but my ratio will be closer to Falcons 75 percent and Panthers 25 percent in my own entries.
Survivor Pools: Atlanta is a reasonable option but from a game theory perspective, I’m going to avoid the Falcons whenever I can this week.
Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Panthers 13
Dolphins vs. Jets
Spread: Dolphins -9.5
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has moved from Dolphins -12 to Dolphins -9. This line moved to Dolphins -9.5 on Friday. The total has moved from 40.5 down to 37 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Miami Dolphins to be used in roughly 95 percent of entries. Miami’s injury situation has moved the spread for this contest by up to three points. If the Dolphins are down multiple offensive linemen and Tyreek Hill, the New York Jets become a more interesting leverage option. In that scenario, my ratio will be around 65 percent Dolphins and 35 percent Jets. Otherwise, I will play Miami in at least 80 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have Miami, you saved them for this week. The Dolphins aren’t as safe as they were when these teams squared off on Black Friday, but Miami is still a very good option.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 16
Saints vs. Giants
Spread: Saints -6
Total: 39
The spread for this contest has moved from Saints -6 to Saints -5.5. The total has moved from 36.5 to 39 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the New Orleans Saints to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. I’ll be in line with consensus on this matchup.
Survivor Pools: I saved the Saints for this week in a few pools, where two of them are still active. I’m less confident in New Orleans here than I was before the season, but I’m still going to play them in at least one of those entries.
Score Prediction: Saints 17, New York Giants 13
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Packers -3.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Packers -3.5 all week. The total moved from 42.5 down to 41.5 points before jumping back up to 42.5 on Friday.
Winner Pools: Expect the Green Bay Packers to be used in more than 80 percent of entries. In this matchup, I will play the Packers in the 60 to 65 percent range.
Survivor Pools: Both teams are similar enough, so I’d prefer to avoid this matchup. That said, if you’re in dire straits where you’re debating the Bengals, I prefer the Packers. Green Bay is also a solid game theory play off Atlanta.
Score Prediction: Packers 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Titans vs. Texans
Spread: Titans -4
Total: 37
The spread in this contest has moved from Titans -2 to Titans -4. The total has fluctuated between 37 and 38 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Tennessee Titans to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. Now that C.J. Stroud has been officially ruled out, that number might change. I will play the Titans in roughly 75 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: With Stroud out the Titans would be an aggressive option this week.
Score Prediction: Titans 20, Houston Texans 13
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Spread: Cardinals +12
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Cardinals +13.5 to Cardinals +12. The total has moved from 47 up to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. I’m going to use the 49ers in all of my entries. That said, if you’re in a very large pool with weekly payouts, the Arizona Cardinals are an interesting leverage option in that scenario.
Survivor Pools: Nothing is safe is survivor, but the 49ers are the “safest” option on the slate.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Rams vs. Commanders
Spread: Rams -6.5
Total: 50.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Commanders -7 to Commanders -6.5. The total has moved from 48.5 up to 50.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Rams to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. From a pure football perspective, that’s the way it should be. From a game theory perspective, the Rams are coming off an overtime game, whereas the Washington Commanders are coming off their bye. If you want to play a significant long shot to win this week, I prefer Washington over the other options.
Survivor Pools: The Rams are playable in this matchup, but I would prefer to not use teams coming off an overtime game against an opponent coming off their bye.
Score Prediction: Rams 30, Commanders 24
Bills vs. Cowboys
Spread: Bills -2.5
Total: 50
The spread for this contest moved from Bills -1.5 to Bills -2.5. On Friday it settled in the middle at Bills -2. The total has moved from 48.5 up to 51 points, before moving back down to 50 points on Friday.
Winner Pools: Expect the Dallas Cowboys to be used in roughly 55 percent of entries. This is a coin flip game where the Bills are in full desperation mode. That’s why I’ll be a little Buffalo Bills heavy with my own entries.
Survivor Pools: This game should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Cowboys 24
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Spread: Jaguars +3.5
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has stayed at Jaguars +3.5 throughout the week. The total has moved from 43.5 down to 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in roughly 85 percent of entries. This is a solid leverage spot as the Jacksonville Jaguars beat Baltimore last year. My ratio for this game will be closer to Ravens 60 percent and Jaguars 40 percent.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 21
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Spread: Seahawks +4
Total: 48.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Seahawks +4 to Seahawks +3. The total has fluctuated between 47.5 and 48.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. The Eagles likely win this contest, but they should be used in roughly 70 percent of entries if Geno Smith plays. That’s how I’ll play this game if Smith is active. If he’s not and Drew Lock gets another start, I’ll play the Eagles in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
