Fantasy
12/9/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 14 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
DOUBLE STACKS
- Stack: QB Justin Fields WR DJ Moore TE Cole Kmet
- Runback: RB Jahmyr Gibbs OR WR Jameson Williams
Justin Fields has showcased consistent ground production against the Detroit Lions, exceeding 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games, ensuring a reliable floor. However, for tournament success, his aerial weapons, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet become crucial. Together, they command an impressive 49.3 percent target share with a notable 52.6 percent share in the red zone when Fields is on the field.
While a run-back in this game isn't essential, keeping an eye on big plays from the Lions, particularly from Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs, could be impactful. Williams, operating with a healthier snap share, has the potential for deep-ball success if Goff has the necessary time to throw.
In their previous encounter, Williams notched 44 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Lions' offensive line poses a challenge for the Chicago Bears, and Gibbs, an explosive runner, could exploit this matchup. His six receptions in the first game highlight the Bears' vulnerability against pass-catching running backs.
- Stack: QB Brock Purdy WR Brandon Aiyuk TE George Kittle
- Runback: WR DK Metcalf
Anticipating the Seattle Seahawks will maintain their man coverage approach from the Cowboys game against the San Francisco 49ers, the strategy is likely aimed at containing Christian McCaffrey and challenging quarterback Brock Purdy. However, Purdy has excelled against man coverage, averaging 11 yards per attempt.
The key beneficiaries are Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, who boast more than 50 percent of man coverage targets and are among the NFL's best against it in terms of yards per route run. These two players hold the potential to elevate Purdy's performance, providing a high ceiling.
Despite Charvarius Ward's strong performance in their initial matchup, DK Metcalf remains a compelling option, especially given his history of success against Ward, with a notable playoff game featuring a 10-reception, 136-yard, two-touchdown performance. Metcalf, often overlooked in this stack, could replicate his standout performance, similar to what he demonstrated against the Cowboys.
- Stack: QB Russell Wilson WR Courtland Sutton WR Jerry Jeudy OR WR Marvin Mims
The Los Angeles Chargers favor single-high coverage looks, playing into Russell Wilson's strength in downfield and sideline throws. With Jerry Jeudy labeled as consistently open by Sean Payton, Wilson will likely target him frequently.
Marvin Mims presents an appealing salary relief option for potential deep connections, and it has been there, but Wilson has missed him. Courtland Sutton is the go-to player for Wilson, dominating red zone targets and serving as a reliable touchdown option.
Considering the Chargers' struggling offense, there's minimal need to run this back. Wilson can deliver a multi-touchdown performance without relying on Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen to justify their salaries.
- Stack: QB Desmond Ridder WR Drake London TE Kyle Pitts
- Runback: WR Mike Evans
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are missing key players like Devin White and Jamel Dean, coupled with Vita Vea's questionable status; if Vea is out, this would also increase my interest in Bijan Robinson. The reason I want Desmond Ridder is because of his success against a Cover 3 blitz, averaging nine yards per attempt against it, and the Buccaneers’ frequently running this look.
I think Ridder has two players who make the biggest impact in this game: Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Pitts is dominating the slot targets, and the Buccaneers cannot cover the slot alignment this year. Then you have London, who is the main player against Cover 3 and should be in a plus matchup against this secondary.
For Ridder to make a big impact, the Buccaneers must establish an early lead that could lead to heavy passing. Mike Evans, likely facing man coverage from A.J. Terrell without over-the-top help, becomes a prime target for Baker Mayfield. Evans has thrived in such situations, garnering a 33 percent target rate on his Cover 1 routes with Mayfield at quarterback.
Mini-Stacks
- Buffalo at Kansas City
- RB James Cook TE Travis Kelce
James Cook is being overlooked because of the cheap running backs in Kansas City, but he’s been getting 20 touches a game since Joe Brady took over. The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.8 yards per carry to running backs on the year, and it’s been 5.4 yards in the past two months. Cook is game script-proof and is a direct pivot off of Zack Moss if you want to be unique to the field.
Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice will carry the Chiefs in this matchup. Isiah Pacheco’s rushing attack is gone, and I think Patrick Mahomes will drop back a ton in this game.
The lack of run game will take away from his efficiency, which is why I don’t have him in the pool, but I believe Kelce and Rice have high reception totals. The Buffalo Bills have never been able to cover Kelce, and I don’t believe this is the season they figure it out.
- Indianapolis at Cincinnati
- RB Zack Moss WR Tee Higgins
Zack Moss was a disappointment last week, but he still had 21 touches and dominated the role. His price is still too cheap, and the matchup is much better than last week's. The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing running backs 4.5 yards per carry this year. Moss will see 20 touches and be in a spot to be much more efficient with them.
Ja’Marr Chase is totally fine to be the runback here, but I think Tee Higgins has the opportunity to steal enough away from him and is the key for the Bengals’ playoff push.
The Indianapolis Colts should be solely focused on Chase and making sure they stop Joe Mixon which will leave Higgins in one-on-one opportunities. Jake Browning will have to throw the ball down the field to win games and that’ll be Higgins as well. The Colts play a ton of Cover 3 coverage and in the small sample size that Higgins has been on the field with Browning against it, he’s been targeted on 43 percent of his routes.
- Jacksonville at Cleveland
- RB Travis Etienne WR Elijah Moore
During the last two months, the Cleveland Browns' run defense has allowed 4.6 yards per carry. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an ankle sprain that he might play through. If he does, I expect Travis Etienne to carry this offense. He has not been efficient as of late, but he’s still taking the majority of snaps, and if Lawrence isn’t getting red zone touchdowns, I expect Etienne to find the end zone.
This mini-stack is much more appealing if Joe Flacco plays because he threw it down the field early and often. Elijah Moore was on the other end of most of those targets, and it won’t take much to pay off his salary. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays, I will be much more interested in Etienne with the Jaguars defense.
- Carolina at New Orleans
- WR Jonathan Mingo RB Alvin Kamara
Jonathan Mingo finally looked like a trusted wide receiver for Bryce Young, and the New Orleans Saints do not have a healthy secondary. Mingo has had six targets in four straight games and should return value of the targets alone. The Saints run a lot of man coverage looks, and without Marcus Lattimore, he should be able to win against these corners.
With Derek Carr being hurt, I expect him to check it down early and often. This could be similar to the game against the Buccaneers, where Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes. I do not expect Kamara to be extremely efficient, but I expect a ton of volume his way.
One-Offs
- WR Davante Adams
The Minnesota Vikings lead the league in blitzing, and Davante Adams boasts a 36.4 percent target share from O’Connell against the blitz. Expect Adams to be heavily targeted this weekend, making him a standout choice, especially considering his likely lower ownership.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Justin Fields | CHI | DET | $6,800 | $7,900 |
| QB | Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | $6,500 | $8,100 |
| QB | Russell Wilson | DEN | LAC | $5,800 | $7,400 |
| QB | Desmond Ridder | ATL | TB | $5,000 | $6,700 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | SEA | $9,200 | $10,500 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | CAR | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | BAL | $7,300 | $8,800 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | CLE | $7,000 | $8,400 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | ATL | $6,800 | $7,400 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | CHI | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | TB | $6,500 | $7,100 |
| RB | David Montgomery | DET | CHI | $6,400 | $7,600 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | CIN | IND | $6,100 | $7,200 |
| RB | James Cook | BUF | KC | $6,000 | $6,600 |
| RB | Zack Moss | IND | CIN | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | LAC | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| RB | Jerick McKinnon | KC | BUF | $4,800 | $0 |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | BUF | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | KC | $8,800 | $8,700 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | LAC | DEN | $8,600 | $8,800 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | CHI | $8,200 | $8,200 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | ATL | $7,700 | $8,500 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | IND | $7,600 | $7,900 |
| WR | Davante Adams | LV | MIN | $7,500 | $7,400 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | CIN | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | CAR | $7,000 | $7,600 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | SEA | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | SEA | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | SF | $6,700 | $7,300 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | DET | $6,500 | $4,500 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | CLE | $6,400 | $7,000 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN | LAC | $6,100 | $7,200 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | CIN | IND | $5,900 | $6,300 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | KC | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | LA | $5,700 | $6,500 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | BUF | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | CIN | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | LAC | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | TB | $4,600 | $6,400 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | CLE | JAX | $4,500 | $6,200 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | CIN | $3,700 | $5,500 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | NO | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | CHI | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | NO | $3,300 | $5,600 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | CHI | DET | $3,300 | $5,400 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | LAC | $3,300 | $4,700 |
| WR | Trey Palmer | TB | ATL | $3,200 | $5,100 |
| WR | Parker Washington | JAX | CLE | $3,000 | $4,100 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | BUF | $7,800 | $8,000 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | DET | CHI | $6,100 | $7,200 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | SEA | $5,900 | $6,600 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | CHI | DET | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | ATL | TB | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | BAL | LA | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| TE | Jonnu Smith | ATL | TB | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| TE | Cade Otton | TB | ATL | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| TE | Kylen Granson | IND | CIN | $2,600 | $4,700 |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | CLE | $3,600 | $4,700 |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | LA | $3,300 | $4,500 |
| DST | Vikings | MIN | LV | $3,100 | $3,900 |
| DST | Bengals | CIN | IND | $3,100 | $3,700 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | JAX | $3,000 | $3,800 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | HOU | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| DST | Broncos | DEN | LAC | $2,800 | $3,600 |
| DST | Chiefs | KC | BUF | $2,600 | $4,000 |
| DST | Bills | BUF | KC | $2,500 | $3,500 |
