Betting
12/9/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 Betting Preview For Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments and survivor and winner pools are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement and updated score predictions when applicable.
Be sure to keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov's Injury Report Tracker
Ravens vs. Rams
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Total: 40
The spread for this contest has fluctuated from Ravens -7 and Ravens -7.5 throughout the week. The total opened at 44.5 before dipping to 40 points due to weather concerns.
Winner Pools: Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. I will play Baltimore in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: The Ravens are coming off a bye, and I will use them in at least one of my remaining entries. I would not quite call Baltimore safe, but they are the second- or third-best option on this slate.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Los Angeles Rams 13
Bears vs. Lions
Spread: Bears +3
Total: 43
The spread for this contest opened as Bears +4 before moving to Bears +3 early this week. That total opened at 45.5 before moving to 40 points due to weather concerns. The total has recently settled at 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. My ratio for this contest will be approximately 60 percent Lions and 40 percent Chicago Bears.
Survivor Pools: If you’ve held the Lions this long, and you probably shouldn’t have, this might be their best spot left on the schedule.
Score Prediction: Lions 17, Bears 16
Jets vs. Texans
Spread: Jets +3.5
Total: 33
The spread for this contest opened as Jets +6 but has moved to Jets +3.5. The total has moved from 36.5 to 33 points. Weather concerns have driven considerable line movement for the spread and total.
Winner Pools: Expect the Houston Texans to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. This is a game where I’ll wait until the last minute to make my decisions because the weather matters here. If winds are more than 20 mph in New York, that genuinely helps the New York Jets in this matchup.
In that event, I’ll be more aggressive on the Jets, where I’ll play them in at least one-third of my entries. If wind won’t be a major factor, I’ll be more conservative.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Texans 16, Jets 9
Saints vs. Panthers
Spread: Saints -6
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Saints -5 and Saints -6. The total has moved from 38.5 to 37.5 and then back to 38.5.
Winner Pools: Expect the New Orleans Saints to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. If Jameis Winston starts this contest, I will play the Carolina Panthers in roughly 50 percent of my entries. In general, Carolina is a leverage play, but Winston’s turnover downside would make them a more live underdog.
Survivor Pools: The Saints warrant consideration, but they are a dangerous option that can't be relied upon. Unfortunately, you might have to pick an unreliable team this late in the year.
Score Prediction: Saints 17, Panthers 13
Browns vs. Jaguars
Spread: Browns -3
Total: 33
The spread for this contest opened as Browns +3, but it moved early in the week to Browns -3 due to Trevor Lawrence’s injury uncertainty. It moved to Browns -2.5 late in the week. The total opened at 38.5 points before diving down to 30.5. Late in the week, it jumped back up to 33.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cleveland Browns to be used in roughly 65 percent of lineups. If Lawrence misses this contest, I will play the Browns in all my entries. If Lawrence plays, I will pivot to being Jacksonville Jaguars heavy.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided if Lawrence plays. If C.J. Beathard starts for Jacksonville, Cleveland becomes an aggressive, but playable option.
Score Prediction with Lawrence: Jaguars 17, Browns 13
Score Prediction without Lawrence: Browns 17, Jaguars 3
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Falcons -2
Total: 41
The spread for this contest has stayed at Falcons -2.5 until a late week shift to Falcons -2. The total has moved from 39 to 41 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Atlanta Falcons to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. That kind of usage number makes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers an interesting leverage play. I lean towards the Falcons winning this game, but I’ll be roughly even on these teams since the Falcons will be used at such a high clip. If I were in a very large pool, I would take the Buccaneers.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Falcons 17, Buccaneers 16
Bengals vs. Colts
Spread: Bengals -2
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has moved from Bengals +2.5 to Bengals -2. The total has moved from 40 to 44 points as the weather looks to be less of a factor in this matchup.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. I’m willing to get burned by Jake Browning, so I will play the Indianapolis Colts in approximately 75 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Bengals 17
49ers vs. Seahawks
Spread: 49ers -13
Total: 46
The spread for this contest opened as 49ers -11.5 before dipping down to 49ers -10.5 before a midweek return to 49ers -11.5. Geno Smith became a game-time decision late in the week, which has moved this line to 49ers -13. The total has moved from 46 to 47 and then back down to 46 late in the week.
Winner Pools: Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. If Smith plays, the Seattle Seahawks warrant consideration as a leverage play. I will use the 49ers in all my entries if he doesn't. If Smith plays, I will still be extremely 49ers heavy.
Survivor Pools: If Smith plays, the 49ers are still playable, but they might be worth saving for their Week 17 matchup with the Commanders. If Smith doesn’t play, the 49ers become an even stronger option this week.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 17
Raiders vs. Vikings
Spread: Raiders +3
Total: 40
The spread for this contest opened as Raiders +2.5 before moving to Raiders +3. The total has fluctuated from 40.5 to 40 points throughout the week.
Winner Pools: Expect the Minnesota Vikings to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. That type of usage makes the Las Vegas Raiders an interesting leverage play. I will be right around consensus because I have little faith in Aidan O’Connell against Brian Flores.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Raiders 16
Chargers vs. Broncos
Spread: Chargers -2.5
Total: 44
The spread for this contest opened as Chargers -3 before moving to Chargers -2.5 midweek. The total has fluctuated from 44 to 44.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect both of these teams to be used in roughly 50 percent of entries. This is a true coin flip game where I have no decisive lean. I’ll be a little Chargers heavy with my own entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 21, Denver Broncos 20
Chiefs vs. Bills
Spread: Chiefs -1
Total: 49
The spread for this contest opened as Chiefs -3 and has gradually moved to Chiefs -1. The total opened at 48 before moving down to 47.5 points. Late this week, the total rose to 49 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. This week, one of my bigger stances is that I will be Buffalo heavy. I would use the Buffalo Bills if I had only one entry, and I would use them in 65 percent of my entries, maybe even a little more.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Bills 30, Chiefs 27
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Total: 51.5
The spread for this contest opened at Cowboys -3 before moving to Cowboys -3.5 early this week. The total opened at 51.5 before moving to 52.5 early in the week. Late this week the total moved back down to 51.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect Dallas to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. I’ll use Dallas in roughly 75 percent of my own entries. I would use the Dallas Cowboys if I only had one winner pool entry.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Philadelphia Eagles 24
Dolphins vs. Titans
Spread: Dolphins -13
Total: 46
The spread for this contest has stayed as Dolphins -13 all week. The total opened from 47 to 47.5 but has fallen to 46 points.
Winner Pools: Expect Miami to be used in nearly all entries. I’m going to play the Miami Dolphins in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: If you still have Miami you have to use them this week or next against the Jets.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Tennessee Titans 17
Giants vs. Packers
Spread: Giants +6.5
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has fluctuated from Giants +6 to Giants +6.5 throughout the week. The total has moved from 37 to 36.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Green Bay Packers to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. It wouldn’t surprise me if the New York Giants cover, but their anemic offense makes them hard to take in this spot. I’ll be around consensus on this contest in winner pools.
Survivor Pools: Green Bay is not an unreasonable choice in survivor pools. Your biggest concern is that the Packers are in a traditional letdown spot. That said, unless Saquon Barkley has a monster game, it’s hard to see Tommy DeVito succeeding through the air.
Score Prediction: Packers 20, Giants 14
