Betting
12/2/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 13 Betting Preview For Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments and survivor and winner pools are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement while providing updated score predictions when applicable.
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Commanders vs. Dolphins
Spread: Commanders +9.5
Total: 49.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Washington Commanders +9.5, but the total has moved from 50.5 to 49.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Miami Dolphins to be used in roughly 95 percent of entries. Washington should be considered as a leverage play in pools with weekly payouts. That said, I will use Miami in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: Miami is a strong option in each of the next three weeks.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Commanders 23
Texans vs. Broncos
Spread: Texans -3
Total: 47.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Houston Texans -3.5 to Texans -3. The total has moved from 46 to 47.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Texans to be used in roughly two-thirds of entries. I’m going to be roughly aligned with the field in this matchup.
Survivor Pools: Unless you have very limited options this week, we’re avoiding this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Denver Broncos 23
Saints vs. Lions
Spread: Saints +4
Total: 47
The spread for this contest has stayed at New Orleans Saints +4 all week with brief fluctuations. The total has moved up from 45.5 to 47 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. Detroit is the better team coming off a long week and a loss. New Orleans is also in danger of being without all their starting wide receivers.
If the Saints were at full strength, I’d lean into them as a leverage play. Since their offense will likely be reduced, I’ll only play New Orleans in 15-20 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Saints 20
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Spread: Steelers -6.5
Total: 41
The spread for this contest has moved from Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 to Steelers -6.5. The total has moved from 39.5 to 41 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Steelers to be used in over 90 percent of entries. I will play Pittsburgh in more than 85 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: We still can’t entirely trust the Steelers’ offense, but they are a viable option in this matchup. In my biggest remaining survivor entry I’m seriously debating playing Pittsburgh.
Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Arizona Cardinals 17
Jets vs. Falcons
Spread: Jets +2
Total: 34
The spread for this contest has ranged from New York Jets +4 to its current mark of Jets +2. The total has moved from 34 to 33.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Atlanta Falcons to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. One of my biggest stances of the week is that I will be Jets heavy. If I only had one entry, I’d take the Jets this week as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: This game should be avoided in most situations.
Score Prediction: Jets 13, Falcons 10
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Spread: Buccaneers -5
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has ranged from Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 and Buccaneers -6. The total has moved from 37.5 to 37 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Buccaneers to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. The situation is the Carolina Panthers are a mess, so I’m going to stay right around consensus for this matchup.
Survivor Pools: I do not trust Baker Mayfield in a late season slate with the potential for substantial money in a survivor pool. That said, given the situation in Carolina, I haven’t outright ruled out Tampa.
I am, however, going to do everything I can to avoid playing them this week outside of tournaments that require two teams at this juncture.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Panthers 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Spread: Patriots +5.5
Total: 40
The spread for this contest has moved from New England Patriots +6 to Patriots +5.5. The total has moved from 40.5 to 40 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. From a game perspective, the Patriots warrant consideration as a leverage play. The problem there is they have one of the league’s worst and most talent-poor offenses. That’s why I will be right around consensus on this game.
Survivor Pools: The Chargers cannot be trusted, but Justin Herbert will likely be the difference in this matchup. Like with Tampa, I will do my best to avoid using the Chargers on the road, but I haven’t entirely ruled them out.
Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Patriots 10
Titans vs. Colts
Spread: Titans +1
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Tennessee Titans +2 to Titans +1. The total has moved from 43 to 42.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Indianapolis Colts to be used in more than 70 percent of entries. I will play both teams at a 50/50 ratio to use the Titans as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Colts 20, Titans 17
Eagles vs. 49ers
Spread: Eagles +3
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 to Eagles +3. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect each team to be used in roughly 50 percent of entries. This week, I will be San Francisco 49ers heavy in the 65-70 percent ratio.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Eagles 20
Rams vs. Browns
Spread: Rams -4
Total: 40
The spread for this contest has ranged from Los Angeles Rams -4.5 and Rams -3.5. It’s currently settled in between at Rams -4. The total has moved from 39.5 to 40 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Rams to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. I will play the Cleveland Browns as a leverage option, so my ratio for these teams will be close to 50/50.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Rams 16, Browns 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Spread: Packers +6
Total: 42.5
The spread has moved from Green Bay Packers +6.5 to Packers +6. The total has stayed at 42.5 points with only brief fluctuations.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. The Packers warrant consideration as a leverage play on this slate. I don’t expect to be too far off consensus in this matchup, but I will play the Packers in some of my bigger tournaments.
Survivor Pools: If you still have Kansas City, we’d rather use them in a future matchup.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Packers 17
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Spread: Jaguars -8.5
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest has ranged from Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 to Jaguars -9. It’s currently settled at Jaguars -8.5. The total has moved from 39 to 38.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Jaguars to be used in over 90 percent of entries. I will use Jacksonville in all of my entries this week.
Survivor Pools: The Jaguars are the safest option on this week’s slate. The challenge for me in some spots is Jacksonville hosts the Panthers in Week 17. When looking at things from a two-versus-two type lens, I’m leaning toward saving the Jaguars while playing the Steelers this week.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 27, Cincinnati Bengals 10
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