Betting
11/22/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets: Go For Seconds On These Thanksgiving Dishes
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 12 Player Prop Bets
Jordan Love OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers are touchdown underdogs against the Detroit Lions, so the game script is in their favor for pass attempts. Aaron Jones and third-string RB Emmanuel Wilson will miss this contest, so all the rushing work will fall onto A.J. Dillon. He just had 51 snaps and 18 touches on Sunday, so it’s tough to see him getting 20 or more touches on only four days rest for the Thanksgiving game.
Quarterbacks are 7-3 to this pass attempts over this season against Detroit. The only three who missed were Justin Fields (18 rush attempts last week in a positive game script), Jimmy Garoppolo (disastrous Monday Night Football game where he was benched the following week and half the coaching staff was fired) and Lamar Jackson — who is also highly mobile.
Bet by: Larky
Brandin Cooks OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Brandin Cooks has been over this number in four of his past five games for the Dallas Cowboys and is an every-down player in one of the NFL’s best passing offenses.
He’s going up against the Washington Commanders, and 20 wide receivers have been above this number through 11 games against them. In the four games since the Commanders traded defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat, at least two receivers reached this mark each week against them.
Bet by: Larky
Dante Stills (ARI) UNDER 4.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -115 on Draftkings
Dante Stills has gone under this total in seven out of 10 games this year. With Jonathan Ledbetter out and Kevin Strong and Leki Fotu injured during the game, Stills was forced to play 82 percent of snaps last week.
The Arizona Cardinals elevated Ben Stille and are likely to get Ledbetter back this week. I expect some sort of five-man rotation with Ledbetter, Stills, Roy Lopez, Stille and Phil Hoskins. The Los Angeles Rams have given up the third least amount of tackles to interior linemen this year at 7.3 per game.
They have not allowed a single defensive tackle to go over this line of 4.5 all season long. The Arizona stat crew has been below average giving up the 24th most assists and total tackles per opportunity. My model has this going under around 72 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
