Fantasy
11/25/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 12 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 12 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Jalen Hurts WR A.J. Brown WR DeVonta Smith
- Runback: WR Khalil Shakir TE Dalton Kincaid
Without Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith commanded a 55 percent target share against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This week, facing a weaker secondary at home, they're likely to avoid the blocking issues from the previous week from crowd noise and take advantage down the field.
While Smith hasn't excelled against zone coverage this season, Brown's dominance in such situations compensates. With Jalen Hurts not at peak running health, the passing game becomes his path to a high GPP score.
To afford this stack, opt for the cheaper side of the Buffalo Bills. Without Dawson Knox, expect more three-wide receiver sets. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have been slot standouts during this period, exploiting the Philadelphia Eagles' weakness in defending the slot. It's a volume play at great value.
- Stack: QB Josh Allen WR Stefon Diggs TE Dalton Kincaid
- Runback: RB D’Andre Swift
Joe Brady, the new play-caller for the Bills, simplified the offense for Josh Allen last weekend, incorporating more designed runs and defined roles for players. Stefon Diggs operated across all three field levels, Gabe Davis focused on deep routes, and Shakir and Kincaid handled the intermediate portion. With the Eagles struggling to defend the slot, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir are poised for significant action there.
The Bills consistently stick to their nickel package regardless of the opponent's personnel. Against this personnel, D'Andre Swift averages more than five yards per carry, and in 12 personnel, that figure jumps to more than six yards per carry. If Hurts doesn't outperform Allen, Swift will be pivotal, potentially contributing with rushing touchdowns.
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Tank Dell WR Nico Collins
- Runback: WR Christian Kirk
The Jacksonville Jaguars heavily rely on Cover 3 coverage and boast one of the highest rates of bringing five or more pass rushers in the NFL.
C.J. Stroud is the top passer in the league against both of these, and it has been his connection with Tank Dell and Nico Collins. These two players have excelled against Cover 3, and the absence of Tyson Campbell leaves the Jaguars vulnerable in defending against both.
On the defensive side, the Houston Texans have established a formidable run defense and are increasingly implementing Cover 4 coverage. Although Trevor Lawrence has struggled against this look throughout his career, he has a reliable target in Christian Kirk, who commands a significant 30 percent target share.
- Stack: QB Gardner Minshew WR Micheal Pittman Jr. WR Josh Downs
- Runback: WR Mike Evans
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' secondary has struggled recently, while their run defense remains elite. Anticipating a pass-heavy approach from the Indianapolis Colts, it goes through Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
Downs, dealing with a nagging knee injury, is a key injury to monitor, but the bye week likely aided in his recovery. Despite Jonathan Taylor's popularity this week, the matchup doesn't favor him. Minshew’s path to being great will be through these two players.
The Colts lack strong corners for wide receivers positioned outside, and Mike Evans is the main target for Baker Mayfield in such scenarios. For this game to become a high-scoring affair, it needs a spark, and Evans is poised to be the primary catalyst.
Mini-Stacks
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
- RB Kyren Williams WR Greg Dortch
With the recent waiver of Darrell Henderson, I anticipate Kyren Williams reassuming his pre-injury role, especially given the Arizona Cardinals' consistent struggles against the run this season. The matchup is favorable, and Williams is poised for a substantial workload.
Following Michael Wilson's absence, Greg Dortch transitioned into a full-time offensive role. At an attractive price point, Dortch becomes a compelling option. He garnered eight targets last weekend and displayed comfort in catching passes from Kyler Murray. Dortch stands out as my preferred value pick on the slate.
- Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
- RB Jerome Ford WR Marvin Mims
While showing improvement, the Denver Broncos have yet to excel in defending the run. His injury status is now clear despite Jerome Ford playing through a sprained ankle. Given the rookie QB's adjustment period, I anticipate the Browns relying heavily on Ford and prioritizing the ground game, especially considering the Broncos' vulnerabilities in run defense.
Given my salary allocation at quarterback, I'm opting for more low-priced mini-stacks. Marvin Mims Jr., who is currently playing at an elevated rate, fits this strategy. With Denzel Ward absent and the Cleveland Browns favoring single-high coverage, I believe Russell Wilson will exploit downfield opportunities, with the primary focus being on the player matched up against Mims.
One-Offs
- RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is surprisingly low in popularity this weekend, but I am all in on this matchup. The Tennessee Titans are expected to secure a win, and this year, in their victories, Henry's touches have been significant—29, 23, and 26 in recent games.
The Carolina Panthers' defense has been vulnerable, conceding 14 rushing touchdowns and ranking sixth in the league for rushing yards allowed. Henry’s in a smash spot this weekend.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | PHI | BUF | $8,300 | $8,800 |
| QB | Josh Allen | BUF | PHI | $8,100 | $9,200 |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | $7,700 | $7,700 |
| QB | Gardner Minshew II | IND | TB | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | HOU | $7,100 | $8,600 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | BUF | $6,800 | $7,200 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | ARI | $6,600 | $8,200 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | NO | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | TEN | CAR | $6,400 | $7,800 |
| RB | James Cook | BUF | PHI | $6,200 | $6,500 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | LV | $6,200 | $6,600 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | IND | $6,100 | $7,000 |
| RB | James Conner | ARI | LA | $5,900 | $6,600 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | NYG | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| RB | Jerome Ford | CLE | DEN | $5,600 | $6,700 |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | PIT | CIN | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | LA | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| WR | Greg Dortch | ARI | LA | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | NO | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | PHI | $8,800 | $8,700 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | PHI | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | PHI | $3,600 | $5,700 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | CLE | $3,400 | $5,300 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | JAX | $6,900 | $7,800 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | JAX | $6,400 | $6,900 |
| WR | Robert Woods | HOU | JAX | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | TB | $6,800 | $7,600 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | TB | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | TB | $3,200 | $5,000 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | HOU | $6,000 | $7,100 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | HOU | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| WR | Zay Jones | JAX | HOU | $3,900 | $4,500 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | ARI | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| WR | Demario Douglas | NE | NYG | $4,400 | $6,100 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | ATL | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | ATL | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| WR | A.T. Perry | NO | ATL | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | BUF | $9,000 | $8,800 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | BUF | $7,100 | $7,400 |
| WR | Julio Jones | PHI | BUF | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| WR | Quez Watkins | PHI | BUF | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | PIT | CIN | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | CIN | $4,700 | $6,500 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | IND | $7,400 | $8,000 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | IND | $6,300 | $6,400 |
| WR | Trey Palmer | TB | IND | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | LV | $8,200 | $8,300 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | JAX | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | PHI | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | LA | $4,700 | $6,100 |
| TE | Evan Engram | JAX | HOU | $4,200 | $5,800 |
| TE | David Njoku | CLE | DEN | $4,100 | $5,700 |
| TE | Daniel Bellinger | NYG | NE | $2,900 | $4,700 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | CIN | $2,900 | $4,900 |
| TE | Kylen Granson | IND | TB | $2,600 | $4,700 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | DEN | $3,800 | $4,800 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT | CIN | $3,700 | $4,700 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | NE | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| DST | Titans | TEN | CAR | $3,400 | $4,300 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | NYG | $3,200 | $4,500 |
| DST | Broncos | DEN | CLE | $3,200 | $4,100 |
| DST | Chiefs | KC | LV | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| DST | Texans | HOU | JAX | $2,600 | $3,300 |
