NFL Analysis

11/16/23

7 min read

2023 NFL Week 11: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 11.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 11 MATCHUPS

Bengals vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 17th, Ravens 26th

The Cincinnati Bengals‘ offense has started to find its stride in recent weeks and has a tough matchup against an elite Baltimore Ravens defense.

Look for the Ravens and their third-ranked pass rush unit to make Joe Burrow uncomfortable and take advantage of the Bengals’ offensive line, which is less than stellar from a Total Points perspective. 

Cowboys vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 9th, Panthers 7th

The Dallas Cowboys offense was humming last week because of contributions from Dak Prescott and a recent emphasis on getting CeeDee Lamb the football more.

They will likely continue their hot streak against a Carolina Panthers defense ranking in the bottom third of all three defensive Total Points metrics. 

Steelers vs. Browns

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 30th, Browns 14th

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns face off this week in a game between teams with miserable passing offenses and excessively feisty defenses.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is back under center for the Browns after they lost their starting quarterback for the season. The Browns have a noticeable advantage when it comes to fourth-down decision-making, which could well impact this game. 

Bears vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 13th, Lions sixth

The Chicago Bears are getting Justin Fields back this week. They’ll need him if they want to keep pace with a Detroit Lions offense that ranks in the top 10 in all four of our offensive Total Points categories.

This one has the potential to get ugly if the Bears offense doesn’t put points on the board and their second-worst-ranked pass rush unit doesn’t put pressure on Jared Goff. 

Chargers vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Chargers 19th, Packers second

The Los Angeles Chargers‘ offense has lost multiple pass catchers this season, with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer landing on injured reserve. However, they can still move the ball through the air because Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen refuse to cool down, and Austin Ekeler is surging after recovering from injury. 

Look for the Chargers’ offense to take advantage of the Green Bay Packers’ middling pass defense. However, the Packers could certainly exploit the Chargers’ defense, which has been dreadful so far this season and ranks in the bottom three in Run Defense and Pass Coverage Total Points per play. 

Cardinals vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals third, Texans fourth

The Arizona Cardinals just got offensive focal points Kyler Murray and James Conner back from injury, while the Houston Texans’ offense and C.J. Stroud are taking the league by storm.

The Cardinals have a bottom-tier pass rush unit and are average in pass coverage by Total Points, so there is high potential for the Texans to keep up their high-scoring ways and score 30+ points for a third straight week.

Titans vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: Titans 5th, Jaguars 25th

These teams rank on opposite ends of the spectrum in run defense and offense. The Tennessee Titans excel in both areas and the Jacksonville Jaguars struggle, which means this could be a prime game for Trevor Lawrence to show why he is a former No. 1 overall pick.

He needs to take advantage of a plus matchup against Tennessee’s second-worst-ranked pass coverage if he wants to get his team back to their winning ways. 

Raiders vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Raiders N/A, Dolphins 15th

The Las Vegas Raiders look to have an entirely new life after naming interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who is 2-0 in his new role. However, they have an exceedingly tall task this week. They travel to play the Miami Dolphins, who are coming off their bye after a loss against the defending Super Bowl champs.

Although it is great to see the Raiders playing competent football, look at the matchups in the chart and you’ll see they don’t fare well at all against Miami.

Giants vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 27th, Commanders 22nd

The New York Giants rank last in Total Points receiving, blocking and pass coverage. NFC East matchups are usually tightly contested games (aside from this year’s Giants-Cowboys tilts); however, the Washington Commanders have a great opportunity to notch a win, avenging their loss to the Giants earlier this season. 

Buccaneers vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Bucs 28th, 49ers 12th

The San Francisco 49ers hit a rough patch after losing three straight, albeit to stiff competition without key players like LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel. However, they bounced back by trouncing the Jaguars last week.

This game features multiple mismatches in favor of the 49ers offense and the new-look 49ers front. Sporting the additions of Chase Young and Randy Gregory could be too much for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ offensive line that ranks 24th in Total Points per play. 

Jets vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 20th, Bills eighth

The New York Jets can’t get anything going on offense, and the Buffalo Bills refuse to quit turning the ball over. Buffalo just fired its offensive coordinator in hopes of cleaning things up on that side of the ball.

The Bills still rank in the top 10 in pass and rush Total Points per play, while the Jets’ defense has continued to be stout. This should shape up to be a solid matchup, but a mismatch that could make a difference comes in the form of the Bills’ second-ranked pass rush vs the Jets’ second-to-worst-ranked offensive line. 

Seahawks vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 21st, Rams 10th

The Seattle Seahawks‘ pass catchers rank second in Total Points per play this season, while the Los Angeles Rams‘ pass rush and pass coverage units rank in the bottom third.

Geno Smith and company should have a plus matchup. Still, the Rams are capable of fighting back with Matthew Stafford back at quarterback. 

Vikings vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 18th, Broncos 11th

Joshua Dobbs has stepped right in and injected life and electricity into a Minnesota Vikings offense that had a momentarily bleak outlook. The Denver Broncos, however, have also had a good stretch and find themselves riding a three-game winning streak against quality competition.

Both teams sport middling pass rush units and rank near the bottom of the league in pass coverage Total Points per play. This one could shape up to be a fun, pass-heavy affair in primetime. 

Eagles vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles first, Chiefs 29th

There are great matchups all over the field in this one. Still, in a game that figures to be a 60-minute back-and-forth slugfest, fourth-down decision-making could prove vital.

The top-ranked Philadelphia Eagles appear to have a major advantage over the bottom-four-ranked Kansas City Chiefs. 

This article was authored by Jeremy Percy.

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Sports Info Solutions

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